Manta FC v Deportivo Cuenca prediction · Liga Pro

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 20:17

Manta FC 0–2 Deportivo Cuenca MANTA FC WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Manta FC win~~36%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.642

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.823

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Manta FC win at 36%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Manta FC 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–30–35
2′KICK-OFF Manta FC v Deportivo Cuenca
29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Manta FC win 34%)
33′We said Manta FC at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–69
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Manta FC 0–1 Deportivo Cuenca
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Manta FC win: 36% at kick-off, 9% now
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Deportivo Cuenca win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 38%)
34′33′: Lucas Mancinelli on the scoresheet for Deportivo Cuenca, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 9–22–69
35′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 9–22–69
44′Manta FC have had 9 attempts to 4 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 7–21–71
44′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Glendys Calos Mina · Manta FC
45′12 shots for Manta FC, 4 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 7–21–72
45′16 shots for Manta FC, 4 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 7–21–72
45′HALF-TIME Manta FC 0–1 Deportivo Cuenca
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45+3' Jose Enrique Angulo Caicedo · Manta FC
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45+3' Patricio Boolsen · Deportivo Cuenca
45′SECOND HALF Manta FC 0–1 Deportivo Cuenca
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Lucas Mancinelli · Deportivo Cuenca
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Andrés Roberto Yllana · Deportivo Cuenca
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Manta FC win: 36% at kick-off, 6% now
49′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Manta FC · On: Josué Martin Chala Alomia · Off: José Monaga
52′SUBSTITUTION · 51' Deportivo Cuenca · On: Marcos Andres Lopez · Off: Jeremy Mejía
58′We said Manta FC at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Deportivo Cuenca · On: Jorge Ordonez · Off: Lucas Mancinelli
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Deportivo Cuenca · On: Edison Vega · Off: Yeltzin Erique
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Manta FC · On: Jefferson Troya · Off: J. Vergés
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Manta FC · On: Ángel Ledesma · Off: Jostin Alman
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Manta FC 0–2 Deportivo Cuenca
68′Deportivo Cuenca ahead on 66′ through an own goal by Jefferson Troya. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–97
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Manta FC · On: M. Valencia · Off: Alexander Medina
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Manta FC · On: Juan Nazareno · Off: B. Ramírez
81′3 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Deportivo Cuenca · On: David Gonzalez · Off: Melvin Diaz
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Deportivo Cuenca · On: Germán Rivero · Off: Cristhian Benalcazar
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Manta FC 0–3 Deportivo Cuenca
84′🟥 RED CARD · 82' Andrés Roberto Yllana · Deportivo Cuenca
84′GOAL DISALLOWED · 84' Deportivo Cuenca
88′🟥 RED CARD · 88' Manta FC
97′0–2 at the end. Our 36% on Manta FC misses, and the record keeps it. 0–2 · 0–0–100
97′⚽ GOAL · 90+7' Manta FC 1–2 Deportivo Cuenca
FTFULL TIME Manta FC 0–2 Deportivo Cuenca
FTManta FC 0–2 Deportivo Cuenca · Manta FC win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Manta FC just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Manta FC 36%, draw 30%, Deportivo Cuenca 35%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Manta FC v Deportivo CuencaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Manta FC win36%

Draw30%

Deportivo Cuenca win35%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:30

RoundRelegation Group · matchday 4

VenueEstadio Jocay

Line-ups

Manta FC

4-4-2

Deportivo Cuenca

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Manta FC

Deportivo Cuenca

6Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga Pro

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga Pro

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Manta FC

4-4-2

12 F. Zambrano

23 A. Medina

24 O. Moscarelli

31 G. Mina

26 J. Monaga

55 J. Vergés

5 B. Ramírez

6 J. Jiménez

10 R. Burbano

17 José Enrique Angulo Caicedo

19 J. Alman

Coach · Eduardo Carvajal Burgos Javier

Substitutes

9 · J. Blanco

11 · F. Asagidigbi

20 · Josué Chala

7 · Walter Leodán Chalá Vásquez

1 · W. Chávez

29 · M. Hurtado

28 · Á. Ledesma

14 · J. Mina

70 · J. Nazareno

4 · J. Nazareno

27 · Jefferson Alberto Troya Vera

8 · M. Valencia

Deportivo Cuenca

4-1-4-1

1 F. Ferrero

3 G. Nardelli

28 P. Boolsen

6 S. Postel

37 C. Arboleda

30 M. Maccari

7 Lucas Eduardo Mancinelli

16 J. Mejia

53 Yeltzin Hernán Erique Villigua

19 Melvin Fabricio Díaz Canencia

88 C. Benalcazar

Coach · A. Yllana

Substitutes

20 · B. García

49 · David González

23 · E. Guevara

29 · M. Klimowicz

25 · Marcos Andrés López Cabrera

12 · Ethan Gabriel Minda Humanante

2 · Ignacio Ariel Mosquera Arroyo

43 · J. Ordoñez

18 · I. Piedra

11 · G. Rivero

8 · É. Vega

50 · Jostin Missael Caicedo Solis

Our number · manta fc winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

36% The market44%

Us36%

~~Market~~44%

We make Manta FC a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Manta FC v Deportivo Cuenca~~1.14 – 1.12

~~Form · last six in Liga Pro this season · since 2 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 27 v 41~~16 v 11

~~The market · Manta FC win~~44% · ours 36%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Manta FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Manta FC win	36%	44%	−8
Draw	30%	29%	+1
Deportivo Cuenca win	35%	26%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	39%	40%	−1
Both teams to score	46%	46%	0
Over 1.5 goals	66%	66%	0
Over 3.5 goals	19%	21%	−2
Manta FC or draw	65%	74%	−9
Manta FC clean sheet	33%	–	–
Deportivo Cuenca clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 11.1 11.2 6.5 2.5 1 11.4 13.7 7.4 2.8 2 6.8 7.5 4.2 3 2.6 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Manta FC down, Deportivo Cuenca across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,543 Liga Pro matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Pro matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.9% of games this season, across 264 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.86 goals a meeting; 2 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Manta FC at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo Cuenca away: 0.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for Manta FC, 1.12 for Deportivo Cuenca. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.86

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 7

~~Both scored~~2 of 7

~~Last meetings~~DEP 1–2 MAN · MAN 0–1 DEP · MAN 0–1 DEP · DEP 2–0 MAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Pro this season · since 2 Sept

MANTA FC

LLDWWL3–4 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–4

DEPORTIVO CUENCA

WLDDDW1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–1

The table

2026 · Relegation Group

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Deportivo Cuenca	33	−11	41
12	Mushuc Runa SC	33	−4	40
13	Delfin SC	33	−9	35
14	Orense SC	33	−12	35
15	Tecnico Universitario	33	−16	33
16	Manta FC	33	−25	27

The competition's standings before kick-off.

Manta FC v Deportivo Cuenca

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Manta FC

Deportivo Cuenca

Rest & schedule

Manta FC

Deportivo Cuenca

The game in numbers

League table

Line-ups

Manta FC

Deportivo Cuenca

Match statistics

Line-ups

Manta FC

Deportivo Cuenca

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · last six in Liga Pro this season · since 2 Sept

The table