Macara v Independiente del Valle prediction · Liga Pro

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:31

Macara 1–0 Independiente del Valle INDEPENDIENTE DEL VALLE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Independiente del Valle win~~43%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.734

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.027

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Independiente del Valle win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Independiente del Valle was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 31–27–43
1′KICK-OFF Macara v Independiente del Valle
27′We published Independiente del Valle at 43%. Our model now makes it 71%. 0–1 · 10–19–71
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Macara 0–1 Independiente del Valle
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Independiente del Valle win: 43% at kick-off, 71% now
28′Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez scores for Independiente del Valle on 27′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 9–19–71
31′GOAL DISALLOWED · 30' Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez · Independiente del Valle
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Independiente del Valle win: 43% at kick-off, 38% now
42′PENALTY MISSED · 41' Junior Sornoza · Independiente del Valle
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Independiente del Valle win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME Macara 0–0 Independiente del Valle
46′SECOND HALF Macara 0–0 Independiente del Valle
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Independiente del Valle win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
82′augustin campana scores for Macara on 59′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 89–10–1
82′We said Independiente del Valle at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 1–0 · 89–10–1
82′⚽ GOAL · 59' Macara 1–0 Independiente del Valle · augustin campana (assist M. Viera)
82′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Franco Posse · Macara
82′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Matias Mijail Perello · Independiente del Valle
82′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Independiente del Valle · On: Steven Daniel Góngora Palacios · Off: Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez
82′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Independiente del Valle · On: Ronald Briones · Off: Junior Sornoza
82′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Jose Marrufo · Macara
82′🟨 YELLOW · 75' M. Viera · Macara
82′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Ronald Briones · Independiente del Valle
82′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Independiente del Valle · On: Djorkaeff Reascos · Off: Carlos González
82′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Independiente del Valle · On: Yandri Vásquez · Off: Hugo Quintana
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Macara · On: Luis Loor · Off: M. Viera
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Independiente del Valle win: 43% at kick-off, 1% now
82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Macara win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Draw 10%)
85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Independiente del Valle · On: Edwin Quintero · Off: Matias Mijail Perello
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Macara · On: Marlon Medranda · Off: Jean Estacio
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Macara · On: Carlos Caicedo · Off: Martín Alejandro Tello Escobar
96′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Macara · On: J. Klinger · Off: Jordán Josué Mohor Nazareno
96′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Macara · On: Tono Espinoza · Off: augustin campana
FTFULL TIME Macara 1–0 Independiente del Valle
FTMacara 1–0 Independiente del Valle · Independiente del Valle win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Independiente del Valle are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Macara 31%, draw 27%, Independiente del Valle 43%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Macara v Independiente del ValleBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Macara win31%

Draw27%

Independiente del Valle win43%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 20:00

RoundChampionship Group · matchday 3

VenueEstadio Bellavista

Line-ups

Macara

4-2-3-1

Independiente del Valle

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Macara

Independiente del Valle

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga Pro

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga Pro

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Macara

4-2-3-1

1 R. Rodriguez

25 J. Bolaños

4 J. Jiménez

14 J. Marrufo

27 J. Mohor

5 J. Estacio

16 J. Cazares

28 A. Campana

15 M. Tello

20 M. Viera

9 F. Posse

Coach · G. Sanguinetti

Substitutes

12 · D. Cuero

52 · B. Coello

50 · C. Caicedo

13 · L. Ayala

11 · Tono Espinoza

21 · S. Etchebarne

22 · L. Ferro

87 · J. Klinger

26 · M. Medranda

3 · Juan Espinoza

19 · P. Ramos

Independiente del Valle

4-1-4-1

1 A. Quintana

13 Daykol Alejandro Romero Padilla

14 M. Carabajal

5 R. Schunke

19 L. Loor

6 J. Alcívar

11 M. Perelló

28 H. Quintana

10 J. Sornoza

31 Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez

9 C. González

Coach · Joaquín Papa

Substitutes

16 · R. Briones

15 · G. Cortéz

4 · J. Espinoza

18 · Steven Daniel Góngora Palacios

32 · J. Méndez

8 · Y. Ochoa

70 · M. Peralta

56 · E. Quintero

99 · D. Reasco

33 · Andy René Velasco García

23 · Juan Viacava

52 · Y. Vásquez

Our number · independiente del valle winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market55%

Us43%

~~Market~~55%

We make Independiente del Valle a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Macara v Independiente del Valle~~1.19 – 1.45

~~Form · last six in Liga Pro this season · since 22 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 57 v 77~~2 v 1

~~The market · Independiente del Valle win~~55% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Independiente del Valle win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Macara win	31%	19%	+12
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Independiente del Valle win	43%	55%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	49%	52%	−3
Both teams to score	53%	53%	0
Over 1.5 goals	74%	74%	0
Over 3.5 goals	27%	33%	−6
Macara or draw	57%	45%	+12
Macara clean sheet	24%	–	–
Independiente del Valle clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.7 10.1 7.5 3.7 1 8.2 12.5 8.8 4.3 2 5.1 7.2 5.2 2.5 3 2.0 2.9 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Macara down, Independiente del Valle across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,535 Liga Pro matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Pro matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.0% of games this season, across 256 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Macara at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Independiente del Valle away: 2.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Macara, 1.45 for Independiente del Valle. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~IND 3–1 MAC · MAC 0–3 IND · MAC 1–2 IND · IND 1–1 MAC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Pro this season · since 22 Aug

MACARA

WWLWWW2–1 · 4–3 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0

INDEPENDIENTE DEL VALLE

WDLWWW3–2 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 3–2 · 2–1

The table

2026 · Championship Group

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Independiente del Valle	31	+41	77
2	Macara	32	+10	57
3	LDU de Quito	32	+9	52
4	Universidad Catolica	32	+22	51
5	Aucas	32	+3	50
6	Barcelona SC	31	+6	44

The competition's standings before kick-off.

Macara v Independiente del Valle

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Macara

Independiente del Valle

Rest & schedule

Macara

Independiente del Valle

The game in numbers

League table

Line-ups

Macara

Independiente del Valle

Match statistics

Line-ups

Macara

Independiente del Valle

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · last six in Liga Pro this season · since 22 Aug

The table