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Libertad v Leones del Norte

Libertad

3–0Full time

Leones del Norte

Liga Pro · FRI 9 OCT · Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 21:30

Libertad 3–0 Leones del Norte LIBERTAD WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Libertad win~~47%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.427

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.577

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Libertad win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Libertad 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–28–25
1′KICK-OFF Libertad v Leones del Norte
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Libertad 1–0 Leones del Norte
25′⚽ GOAL · 26' Libertad 1–0 Leones del Norte
29′26′ and it is 1–0: Elvis Patta on the scoresheet for Libertad. 1–0 · 76–17–6
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Libertad win: 47% at kick-off, 76% now
35′We said Libertad at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–17–6
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Libertad win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
40′8.0 shots for Leones del Norte, 3.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–0 · 78–17–5
44′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 78–17–5
45′SECOND HALF Libertad 1–0 Leones del Norte
47′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Charles Velez · Leones del Norte
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Leones del Norte · On: Dario Pazmino · Off: Cristhian Solano
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Leones del Norte · On: Thomas Amilivia · Off: Charles Velez
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Libertad 2–0 Leones del Norte · Elvis Patta
66′⚽ GOAL · 67' Libertad 2–0 Leones del Norte · Vilinton German Branda Merlin
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Libertad · On: Enrique Rafael Caicedo Borja · Off: Antony Chere
80′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Leones del Norte · On: Martín Caramuto · Off: Alexis Nicolás Monserrat
81′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Leones del Norte · On: Miguel Yordan Caicedo Orobio · Off: Maiky de la Cruz
81′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Libertad · On: D. Coronel · Off: Gabriel Cortez
81′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Libertad · On: Carlos Orejuela · Off: Vilinton German Branda Merlin
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Leones del Norte · On: Jonathan Ronaldo Arroyo · Off: T. Coppo
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Libertad 3–0 Leones del Norte · Vilinton German Branda Merlin
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Libertad 3–0 Leones del Norte · Edu Pineda
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Libertad · On: Johan Estacio · Off: Edu Pineda
91′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Jonathan Ronaldo Arroyo · Leones del Norte
FTFULL TIME Libertad 3–0 Leones del Norte
FTLibertad 3–0 Leones del Norte · Libertad win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Libertad win47%

Draw28%

Leones del Norte win25%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:00

Venue · Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne

Referee · Augusto Bergelio Aragon Bautista

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Libertad

5-4-1

12 D. Cabezas

17 E. Patta

6 B. Caicedo

2 R. Morinigo

19 O. Quiñónez

20 J. Rodríguez

70 Vilinton Germán Branda Merlín

30 J. Bravo

80 X. Pineda

10 G. Cortéz

33 A. Chére

Coach · Jorge Célico

Substitutes

8 · Stick Carlos Castro Palma

49 · D. Coronel

9 · E. Caicedo

27 · S. Bueno Quinonez

66 · J. Estacio

5 · C. Gruezo

23 · J. Guisamano

25 · M. Lucas

1 · P. Mina

7 · Carlos Alfredo Orejuela Quiñónez

18 · Yerlin Quinonez

Leones del Norte

5-3-2

22 J. Arroyo

7 M. Luque

2 J. Morán

23 N. Monserrat

25 B. Kreiman

16 M. de la Cruz

8 C. Velez

5 T. Coppo

6 Emiliano Griffa

99 C. Solano

40 Juan Luis Anangonó León

Coach · M. Córdoba

Substitutes

17 · T. Amilivia

18 · J. Arellano

4 · R. Arroyo

55 · R. Borja

13 · O. Cabeza

50 · Miguel Yordan Caicedo Orobio

11 · M. Caramuto

14 · A. Rosales

45 · M. Ramírez

31 · G. Padilla

70 · D. Pazmiño

3 · F. Vargas

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Libertad

5-4-1

12 D. Cabezas

17 E. Patta

6 B. Caicedo

2 R. Morinigo

19 O. Quiñónez

20 J. Rodríguez

70 Vilinton Germán Branda Merlín

30 J. Bravo

80 X. Pineda

10 G. Cortéz

33 A. Chére

Coach · Jorge Célico

Substitutes

8 · Stick Carlos Castro Palma

49 · D. Coronel

9 · E. Caicedo

27 · S. Bueno Quinonez

66 · J. Estacio

5 · C. Gruezo

23 · J. Guisamano

25 · M. Lucas

1 · P. Mina

7 · Carlos Alfredo Orejuela Quiñónez

18 · Yerlin Quinonez

Leones del Norte

5-3-2

22 J. Arroyo

7 M. Luque

2 J. Morán

23 N. Monserrat

25 B. Kreiman

16 M. de la Cruz

8 C. Velez

5 T. Coppo

6 Emiliano Griffa

99 C. Solano

40 Juan Luis Anangonó León

Coach · M. Córdoba

Substitutes

17 · T. Amilivia

18 · J. Arellano

4 · R. Arroyo

55 · R. Borja

13 · O. Cabeza

50 · Miguel Yordan Caicedo Orobio

11 · M. Caramuto

14 · A. Rosales

45 · M. Ramírez

31 · G. Padilla

70 · D. Pazmiño

3 · F. Vargas

Our number · libertad winPublished 9 Oct 19:02

47% The market38%

Us47%

~~Market~~38%

We make Libertad a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Libertad win	47%	38%	+9
Draw	28%	30%	−2
Leones del Norte win	25%	32%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	40%	39%	+1
Both teams to score	45%	48%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	67%	65%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	20%	21%	−1
Libertad or draw	75%	68%	+7
Libertad clean sheet	40%	–	–
Leones del Norte clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.3%

0123450 10.6 8.9 4.3 1 13.3 13.0 5.9 2 9.4 8.6 4.0 3 4.3 4.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Libertad down, Leones del Norte across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,526 Liga Pro matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Pro matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.1% of games this season, across 247 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Libertad at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Leones del Norte away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Libertad, 0.93 for Leones del Norte. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 19:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~LIB 1–3 LEO · LEO 1–1 LIB

Form · last six in Liga Pro

LIBERTAD

WLDWLW1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 2–1

LEONES DEL NORTE

LLWDLD2–3 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Independiente del Valle	30	+40	74
2	Macara	31	+9	54
3	Universidad Catolica	31	+23	51
4	Aucas	31	+4	50
5	LDU de Quito	31	+8	49
6	Barcelona SC	30	+7	44
7	Libertad	31	0	44
8	Leones del Norte	31	−1	40
9	Guayaquil City FC	31	−3	40
10	Mushuc Runa SC	31	−3	39
11	Emelec	31	−10	39
12	Deportivo Cuenca	31	−12	37
13	Orense SC	31	−12	33
14	Tecnico Universitario	31	−14	33
15	Delfin SC	31	−12	29
16	Manta FC	31	−24	24