

Libertad v Guayaquil City FC
Libertad
Guayaquil City FCLiga Pro · SAT 17 OCT · Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Libertad win at 50%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Libertad 50% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–27–24
- 1′KICK-OFF Libertad v Guayaquil City FC
- 16′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Bryan Caicedo · Libertad
- 25′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Rodrigo Morinigo · Libertad
- 39′We said Libertad at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–17–5
- 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Libertad win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
- 39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Libertad 1–0 Guayaquil City FC
- 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Libertad win: 50% at kick-off, 78% now
- 40′Gabriel Cortez scores for Libertad on 40′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–17–5
- 41′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 79–17–5
- 45′SECOND HALF Libertad 1–0 Guayaquil City FC
- 47′We said Libertad at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
- 47′We said Libertad at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
- 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Libertad win: 50% at kick-off, 80% now
- 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Libertad 2–0 Guayaquil City FC
- 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Libertad win: 50% at kick-off, 96% now
- 49′48′: Vilinton German Branda Merlin on the scoresheet for Libertad, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
- 51′HALF-TIME Libertad 1–0 Guayaquil City FC
- 57′🟨 YELLOW · 55' P. González · Guayaquil City FC
- 59′We said Libertad at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- 59′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- 59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Libertad 3–0 Guayaquil City FC
- 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Libertad win: 50% at kick-off, over 99% now
- 60′Libertad ahead on 60′ through Vilinton German Branda Merlin. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- 61′Libertad ahead on 59′ through Vilinton German Branda Merlin. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Libertad · On: cristhian valencia · Off: Edu Pineda
- 67′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
- 67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Libertad · On: Enrique Rafael Caicedo Borja · Off: Antony Chere
- 67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Libertad 4–0 Guayaquil City FC
- 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Guayaquil City FC · On: S Laurino · Off: Pablo Mancilla
- 73′Jackson Rodriguez scores for Libertad on 67′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
- 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Libertad · On: Hancel Batalla · Off: Vilinton German Branda Merlin
- 77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Libertad · On: Carlos Gruezo · Off: Bryan Caicedo
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Guayaquil City FC · On: Kevin Sambonino · Off: Dixon Arroyo
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Guayaquil City FC · On: Jonathan Miller Ordóñez Cruz · Off: R. Arias
- 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Libertad · On: Publio Del Piero Mina Loor · Off: David Cabezas
- 95′4–0 at the end. Our 50% on Libertad comes in. 4–0 · 100–0–0
- 95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+5' Guayaquil City FC · On: Manuel de Jesús Palma Escobar · Off: Edinson Mero
- 95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+6' Guayaquil City FC · On: Anderson Naula · Off: Junior Ayovi
- FTFULL TIME Libertad 4–0 Guayaquil City FC
- FTLibertad 4–0 Guayaquil City FC · Libertad win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassLibertad are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Libertad 50%, draw 27%, Guayaquil City FC 24%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 47%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Libertad win50%
Guayaquil City FC win24%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:30
RoundPlacement Group · matchday 3
VenueEstadio Federativo Reina del Cisne
Match timeline
All events
LibertadMIN
Guayaquil City FCEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Libertad
5-4-1
Guayaquil City FC
4-3-1-2
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Libertad
Guayaquil City FC
Last match: 9 Oct · Liga Pro
Last match: 10 Oct · Liga Pro
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Libertad
5-4-1
12 D. Cabezas
17 E. Patta
6 B. Caicedo
2 R. Morinigo
19 O. Quiñónez
20 J. Rodríguez
70 Vilinton Germán Branda Merlín
80 X. Pineda
30 J. Bravo
10 G. Cortéz
33 A. Chére
Coach · Jorge Célico
Substitutes
8 · Stick Carlos Castro Palma
49 · D. Coronel
9 · E. Caicedo
66 · J. Estacio
5 · C. Gruezo
23 · J. Guisamano
25 · M. Lucas
1 · P. Mina
7 · Carlos Alfredo Orejuela Quiñónez
63 · C. Valencia
11 · H. Batalla
Guayaquil City FC
4-3-1-2
30 J. Pinos
33 R. Caicedo
3 Y. Rodríguez
4 E. Ladines
6 R. Arias
17 J. Ayovi
14 D. Arroyo
70 P. Mancilla
80 P. González
21 D. Dorregaray
11 E. Mero
Coach · P. Gavilánez
Substitutes
23 · M. Bolaños
51 · E. Cabezas
7 · J. Caicedo
20 · S. Laurino
1 · G. Napa
19 · A. Naula
16 · J. Ordóñez
9 · M. Palma
12 · Rodrigo Ramiro Perea Salazar
29 · J. Quiñónez
15 · K. Sambonino
28 · J. Vivar
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Libertad
5-4-1
12 D. Cabezas
17 E. Patta
6 B. Caicedo
2 R. Morinigo
19 O. Quiñónez
20 J. Rodríguez
70 Vilinton Germán Branda Merlín
80 X. Pineda
30 J. Bravo
10 G. Cortéz
33 A. Chére
Coach · Jorge Célico
Substitutes
8 · Stick Carlos Castro Palma
49 · D. Coronel
9 · E. Caicedo
66 · J. Estacio
5 · C. Gruezo
23 · J. Guisamano
25 · M. Lucas
1 · P. Mina
7 · Carlos Alfredo Orejuela Quiñónez
63 · C. Valencia
11 · H. Batalla
Guayaquil City FC
4-3-1-2
30 J. Pinos
33 R. Caicedo
3 Y. Rodríguez
4 E. Ladines
6 R. Arias
17 J. Ayovi
14 D. Arroyo
70 P. Mancilla
80 P. González
21 D. Dorregaray
11 E. Mero
Coach · P. Gavilánez
Substitutes
23 · M. Bolaños
51 · E. Cabezas
7 · J. Caicedo
20 · S. Laurino
1 · G. Napa
19 · A. Naula
16 · J. Ordóñez
9 · M. Palma
12 · Rodrigo Ramiro Perea Salazar
29 · J. Quiñónez
15 · K. Sambonino
28 · J. Vivar
We make Libertad a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.5–0.9.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Libertad win | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | −1 |
| Guayaquil City FC win | 24% | 22% | +2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 45% | −1 |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 49% | −2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | 69% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 25% | −2 |
| Libertad or draw | 76% | 78% | −2 |
| Libertad clean sheet | 39% | – | – |
| Guayaquil City FC clean sheet | 23% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
4 meetings since 2022Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Liga Pro this season · since 29 Aug
LIBERTAD
GUAYAQUIL CITY FC
The table
2026 · Placement Group| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Libertad | 32 | +3 | 47 |
| 8 | Guayaquil City FC | 32 | −2 | 43 |
| 9 | Leones del Norte | 32 | −4 | 40 |
| 10 | Emelec | 32 | −11 | 39 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Leones del Norte
Emelec