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Libertad v Guayaquil City FC

Libertad
4–0Full time
Guayaquil City FC

Liga Pro · SAT 17 OCT · Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 20:08
Libertad 4–0 Guayaquil City FC LIBERTAD WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Libertad win50%
The market said50%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.381
The market’s Brier score0.383

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 26 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Libertad win at 50%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Libertad 50% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–27–24
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Libertad v Guayaquil City FC
  4. 16′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Bryan Caicedo · Libertad
  5. 25′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Rodrigo Morinigo · Libertad
  6. 39′We said Libertad at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–17–5
  7. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Libertad win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
  8. 39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Libertad 1–0 Guayaquil City FC
  9. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Libertad win: 50% at kick-off, 78% now
  10. 40′Gabriel Cortez scores for Libertad on 40′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–17–5
  11. 41′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 79–17–5
  12. 45′SECOND HALF Libertad 1–0 Guayaquil City FC
  13. 47′We said Libertad at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
  14. 47′We said Libertad at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
  15. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Libertad win: 50% at kick-off, 80% now
  16. 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Libertad 2–0 Guayaquil City FC
  17. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Libertad win: 50% at kick-off, 96% now
  18. 49′48′: Vilinton German Branda Merlin on the scoresheet for Libertad, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
  19. 51′HALF-TIME Libertad 1–0 Guayaquil City FC
  20. 57′🟨 YELLOW · 55' P. González · Guayaquil City FC
  21. 59′We said Libertad at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  22. 59′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  23. 59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Libertad 3–0 Guayaquil City FC
  24. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Libertad win: 50% at kick-off, over 99% now
  25. 60′Libertad ahead on 60′ through Vilinton German Branda Merlin. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  26. 61′Libertad ahead on 59′ through Vilinton German Branda Merlin. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  27. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Libertad · On: cristhian valencia · Off: Edu Pineda
  28. 67′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  29. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Libertad · On: Enrique Rafael Caicedo Borja · Off: Antony Chere
  30. 67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Libertad 4–0 Guayaquil City FC
  31. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Guayaquil City FC · On: S Laurino · Off: Pablo Mancilla
  32. 73′Jackson Rodriguez scores for Libertad on 67′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  33. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Libertad · On: Hancel Batalla · Off: Vilinton German Branda Merlin
  34. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Libertad · On: Carlos Gruezo · Off: Bryan Caicedo
  35. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Guayaquil City FC · On: Kevin Sambonino · Off: Dixon Arroyo
  36. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Guayaquil City FC · On: Jonathan Miller Ordóñez Cruz · Off: R. Arias
  37. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Libertad · On: Publio Del Piero Mina Loor · Off: David Cabezas
  38. 95′4–0 at the end. Our 50% on Libertad comes in. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  39. 95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+5' Guayaquil City FC · On: Manuel de Jesús Palma Escobar · Off: Edinson Mero
  40. 95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+6' Guayaquil City FC · On: Anderson Naula · Off: Junior Ayovi
  41. FTFULL TIME Libertad 4–0 Guayaquil City FC
  42. FTLibertad 4–0 Guayaquil City FC · Libertad win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Libertad are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Libertad 50%, draw 27%, Guayaquil City FC 24%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Libertad v Guayaquil City FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Libertad win50%
Draw27%
Guayaquil City FC win24%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:30

RoundPlacement Group · matchday 3

VenueEstadio Federativo Reina del Cisne

Line-ups

Libertad

5-4-1

Guayaquil City FC

4-3-1-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Libertad

Guayaquil City FC

8Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga Pro

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga Pro

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026 · Placement Group

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7Libertad32+347
8Guayaquil City FC32−243

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Libertad

5-4-1

12 D. Cabezas

17 E. Patta

6 B. Caicedo

2 R. Morinigo

19 O. Quiñónez

20 J. Rodríguez

70 Vilinton Germán Branda Merlín

80 X. Pineda

30 J. Bravo

10 G. Cortéz

33 A. Chére

Coach · Jorge Célico

Substitutes

8 · Stick Carlos Castro Palma

49 · D. Coronel

9 · E. Caicedo

66 · J. Estacio

5 · C. Gruezo

23 · J. Guisamano

25 · M. Lucas

1 · P. Mina

7 · Carlos Alfredo Orejuela Quiñónez

63 · C. Valencia

11 · H. Batalla

Guayaquil City FC

4-3-1-2

30 J. Pinos

33 R. Caicedo

3 Y. Rodríguez

4 E. Ladines

6 R. Arias

17 J. Ayovi

14 D. Arroyo

70 P. Mancilla

80 P. González

21 D. Dorregaray

11 E. Mero

Coach · P. Gavilánez

Substitutes

23 · M. Bolaños

51 · E. Cabezas

7 · J. Caicedo

20 · S. Laurino

1 · G. Napa

19 · A. Naula

16 · J. Ordóñez

9 · M. Palma

12 · Rodrigo Ramiro Perea Salazar

29 · J. Quiñónez

15 · K. Sambonino

28 · J. Vivar

Our number · libertad winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
50% The market50%
Us50%
Market50%

We make Libertad a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.5–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Libertad v Guayaquil City FC1.50 – 0.94
Form · last six in Liga Pro this season · since 29 AugW3 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 47 v 437 v 8
The market · Libertad win50% · ours 50%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 12 OCT 04:0117 OCT 16:44
Our probability · Libertad win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Libertad win50%50%0
Draw27%28%−1
Guayaquil City FC win24%22%+2
Over 2.5 goals44%45%−1
Both teams to score47%49%−2
Over 1.5 goals70%69%+1
Over 3.5 goals23%25%−2
Libertad or draw76%78%−2
Libertad clean sheet39%––
Guayaquil City FC clean sheet23%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.7%
0123450 9.3 7.9 3.9 1 12.7 12.5 5.7 2 9.7 9.0 4.2 3 4.9 4.5 2.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Libertad down, Guayaquil City FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.51 of 4
Both scored2 of 4
Last meetingsGUA 2–2 LIB · LIB 0–1 GUA · LIB 1–0 GUA · GUA 1–1 LIB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Pro this season · since 29 Aug

LIBERTAD

LDWLWW0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 3–0

GUAYAQUIL CITY FC

WLLWDW2–1 · 0–1 · 3–4 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 3–2

The table

2026 · Placement Group
#TEAMPGDPTS
7Libertad32+347
8Guayaquil City FC32−243
9Leones del Norte32−440
10Emelec32−1139

The competition's standings before kick-off.