Leones del Norte v Libertad
Leones del NorteLibertadLiga Pro · SUN 25 OCT · Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Leones del Norte are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Leones del Norte 38%, draw 29%, Libertad 33%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off
Leones del Norte win38%Libertad win33%Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:30
RoundPlacement Group · matchday 4
VenueEstadio Olimpico de Ibarra
Match timeline
All events
Leones del NorteMINLibertadEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Leones del Norte
Libertad
Last match: 18 Oct · Liga Pro
Last match: 17 Oct · Liga Pro
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026 · Placement GroupPositions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Libertad | 33 | +7 | 50 |
| 10 | Leones del Norte | 33 | −6 | 40 |
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Leones del Norte a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 39%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leones del Norte win | 38% | 46% | −8 |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | +1 |
| Libertad win | 33% | 26% | +7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 47% | −6 |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 52% | −5 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | 71% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 27% | −6 |
| Leones del Norte or draw | 67% | 74% | −7 |
| Leones del Norte clean sheet | 33% | – | – |
| Libertad clean sheet | 30% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
3 meetings since 2024Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Liga Pro this season · since 3 Sept
LEONES DEL NORTE
LIBERTAD
The table
2026 · Placement Group| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Libertad | 33 | +7 | 50 |
| 8 |  Guayaquil City FC | 33 | −6 | 43 |
| 9 |  Emelec | 33 | −9 | 42 |
| 10 | Leones del Norte | 33 | −6 | 40 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.