Leones del Norte v Emelec

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Leones del Norte win at 43%.
2. 2′Much as we predicted: Leones del Norte was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–31–27
3. 2′KICK-OFF Leones del Norte v Emelec
4. 15′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Francisco Pizzini · Emelec
5. 36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Leones del Norte win 35%)
6. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Leones del Norte win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
7. 45′SECOND HALF Leones del Norte 0–0 Emelec
8. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Emelec · On: Ignacio Guerrico · Off: Estalin Segura
9. 47′HALF-TIME Leones del Norte 0–0 Emelec
10. 48′We said Leones del Norte at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 31%. 0–0 · 31–47–22
11. 53′We said Leones del Norte at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–50–21
12. 55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Leones del Norte · On: Thomas Amilivia · Off: Jonathan Ronaldo Arroyo
13. 56′11 shots for Emelec, 5 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 28–52–20
14. 56′We published Leones del Norte at 43%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
15. 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Leones del Norte 1–0 Emelec
16. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Leones del Norte win: 43% at kick-off, 80% now
17. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Leones del Norte win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 17%)
18. 57′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 81–16–3
19. 58′Leones del Norte ahead on 57′ through Martín Caramuto. 1–0. 1–0 · 81–16–3
20. 60′Emelec have had 12 attempts to 7 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 82–16–3
21. 62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Alexis Nicolás Monserrat · Leones del Norte
22. 62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Leones del Norte 1–1 Emelec
23. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Leones del Norte win: 43% at kick-off, 25% now
24. 62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Leones del Norte win 25%)
25. 63′We said Leones del Norte at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–59–17
26. 63′Ronie Carrillo scores for Emelec on 62′. 1–2 · 4–20–76
27. 63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Leones del Norte 1–2 Emelec
28. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Leones del Norte win: 43% at kick-off, 4% now
29. 63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Emelec win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 20%)
30. 64′We said Leones del Norte at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–20–76
31. 65′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 4–19–77
32. 66′64′: Juan Pablo·Ruiz Gomez on the scoresheet for Emelec, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 3–19–78
33. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Leones del Norte win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
34. 68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Teodoro Arce · Emelec
35. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Emelec · On: Teodoro Arce · Off: Francisco Pizzini Corrected
36. 69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Ezequiel Luis Medrán · Emelec
37. 76′We said Leones del Norte at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 2–2 · 15–74–11
38. 76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Leones del Norte 2–2 Emelec
39. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Leones del Norte win: 43% at kick-off, 15% now
40. 76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Draw is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Emelec win 11%)
41. 77′We said Leones del Norte at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 14–75–10
42. 77′4 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 14–75–10
43. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Emelec · On: Víctor Griffith · Off: Juan Pablo·Ruiz Gomez
44. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Emelec · On: Luca Klimowicz · Off: Ronie Carrillo
45. 82′GOAL DISALLOWED · 82' Leones del Norte
46. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Leones del Norte win: 43% at kick-off, 1% now
47. 82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Emelec win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 9%)
48. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Leones del Norte · On: Charles Velez · Off: Segundo Portocarrero
49. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Leones del Norte · On: Jordan Eduardo Morán Cortez · Off: Alexis Nicolás Monserrat
50. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Leones del Norte 1–3 Emelec
51. 92′Emelec ahead on 90′ through Reixon David Saya Paredes. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
52. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Emelec · On: Jose Francisco Cevallos · Off: Teodoro Arce
53. 98′Full time, 1–3. We called Leones del Norte at 43% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–3 · 0–0–100
54. FTFULL TIME Leones del Norte 1–3 Emelec
55. FTLeones del Norte 1–3 Emelec · Leones del Norte win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.