LDU de Quito v Macara prediction · Liga Pro

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

LDU de Quito are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: LDU de Quito 52%, draw 27%, Macara 21%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on LDU de Quito v MacaraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

LDU de Quito win52%

Draw27%

Macara win21%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 22:30

RoundChampionship Group · matchday 4

VenueEstadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

RefereeGuillermo Enrique Guerrero Alcivar

Line-ups

LDU de Quito

3-4-1-2

Macara

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

LDU de Quito

Macara

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga Pro

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Macara	33	+11	60
3	LDU de Quito	33	+9	53

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

LDU de Quito

3-4-1-2

1 G. Valle

30 G. Allala

4 Ricardo Ade

67 J. Carabalí

57 M. Weigandt

20 F. Cornejo

8 J. Pretell

23 Yerlin Quinonez

10 Alexander Antonio Alvarado Carriel

77 K. Velasco

16 Deyverson

Coach · Gustavo Álvarez

Substitutes

3 · Richard Alexander Mina Caicedo

28 · J. Cuero

22 · Alexander Domínguez Carabalí

11 · M. Estrada

5 · Sebastían González Baquero

26 · I. Zambrano

99 · C. Tobar

44 · L. Segovia

7 · L. Rodríguez

31 · J. Rodríguez

33 · Leonel Enrique Quiñónez Padilla

13 · J. Corozo

Macara

4-1-4-1

1 R. Rodriguez

25 J. Bolaños

4 J. Jiménez

14 J. Marrufo

27 J. Mohor

16 J. Cazares

28 A. Campana

5 J. Estacio

15 M. Tello

20 M. Viera

9 F. Posse

Coach · G. Sanguinetti

Substitutes

12 · D. Cuero

10 · M. Miranda

26 · M. Medranda

87 · J. Klinger

22 · L. Ferro

21 · S. Etchebarne

11 · Tono Espinoza

3 · Juan Espinoza

52 · B. Coello

50 · C. Caicedo

13 · L. Ayala

Our number · ldu de quito winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

52% The market60%

Us52%

~~Market~~60%

We make LDU de Quito a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · LDU de Quito v Macara~~1.51 – 0.86

~~Form · last six in Liga Pro this season · since 2 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 53 v 60~~3 v 2

~~The market · LDU de Quito win~~60% · ours 52%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · LDU de Quito win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
LDU de Quito win	52%	60%	−8
Draw	27%	24%	+3
Macara win	21%	16%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	42%	50%	−8
Both teams to score	45%	48%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	69%	72%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	21%	29%	−8
LDU de Quito or draw	79%	84%	−5
LDU de Quito clean sheet	43%	–	–
Macara clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.7%

0123450 10.0 7.7 3.5 1 13.7 12.5 5.2 2 10.6 9.0 3.9 3 5.4 4.5 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+LDU de Quito down, Macara across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,543 Liga Pro matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Pro matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.9% of games this season, across 264 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

LDU de Quito at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Macara away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for LDU de Quito, 0.86 for Macara. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 22:07. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MAC 1–0 LDU · LDU 0–2 MAC · LDU 1–1 MAC · MAC 0–1 LDU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Pro this season · since 2 Sept

LDU DE QUITO

DWDWWD0–0 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

MACARA

WLWWWW4–3 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026 · Championship Group

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Independiente del Valle	32	+40	77
2	Macara	33	+11	60
3	LDU de Quito	33	+9	53
4	Universidad Catolica	33	+22	52
5	Aucas	33	+3	51
6	Barcelona SC	32	+6	45

The competition's standings before kick-off.

LDU de Quito v Macara

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

LDU de Quito

Macara

Rest & schedule

LDU de Quito

Macara

The game in numbers

League table

Line-ups

LDU de Quito

Macara

Match statistics

Line-ups

LDU de Quito

Macara

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · last six in Liga Pro this season · since 2 Sept

The table