LDU de Quito v Barcelona SC prediction · Liga Pro

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 01:00

LDU de Quito 2–1 Barcelona SC LDU DE QUITO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said LDU de Quito win~~49%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.391

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.234

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said LDU de Quito win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: LDU de Quito was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–27–24
1′KICK-OFF LDU de Quito v Barcelona SC
16′Much as we predicted: LDU de Quito was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–31–23
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' LDU de Quito 0–1 Barcelona SC
40′⚽ GOAL · 39' LDU de Quito 0–1 Barcelona SC
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' LDU de Quito 0–1 Barcelona SC
45′HALF-TIME LDU de Quito 0–1 Barcelona SC
46′SECOND HALF LDU de Quito 0–1 Barcelona SC
52′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Bryan Carabali · Barcelona SC
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' LDU de Quito 1–1 Barcelona SC · Jesús Pretell
55′⚽ GOAL · 53' LDU de Quito 1–1 Barcelona SC · Fernando Cornejo
58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Gian Franco Allala · LDU de Quito
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Barcelona SC · On: Jhonny Quinonez · Off: Johan Garcia
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Barcelona SC · On: Jandry Gomez · Off: Bryan Carabali Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Barcelona SC · On: Darío Benedetto · Off: Jefferson Wila
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' LDU de Quito · On: Jose Carabali · Off: Leonel Quinonez
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' LDU de Quito · On: Alexander Alvarado · Off: Lucas Rodriguez
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' LDU de Quito · On: Elvis Kevin Velasco Chere · Off: Janner Corozo
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Barcelona SC · On: Tomás Martínez · Off: Damián Díaz
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Barcelona SC · On: Sergio Díaz · Off: Tomás Rodríguez
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' José Contreras · Barcelona SC
83′⚽ GOAL · 81' LDU de Quito 1–1 Barcelona SC · Alexander Alvarado
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' LDU de Quito 2–1 Barcelona SC · Alexander Alvarado
84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Alexander Alvarado · LDU de Quito
85′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Christian Javier Báez · Barcelona SC
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' LDU de Quito · On: Sebastián González · Off: Fernando Cornejo
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' LDU de Quito · On: Deyverson · Off: Michael Estrada
90′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Deyverson · LDU de Quito
90′🟨 YELLOW · 94' William Vargas · Barcelona SC
90′🟥 RED CARD · 97' William Vargas · Barcelona SC
FTLDU de Quito 2–1 Barcelona SC · LDU de Quito win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

LDU de Quito win49%

Draw28%

Barcelona SC win23%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 22:30

VenueEstadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

RefereeYerson Zambrano

Line-ups

LDU de Quito

3-5-2

Barcelona SC

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

LDU de Quito

Barcelona SC

21Days since last match28

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	LDU de Quito	31	+8	49
7	Barcelona SC	30	+7	44

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Vinícius red card overshadows Diomandé’s Real Madrid breakthroughFootball España · 13 hours ago · Real Madrid, Villarreal, Barcelona SC

Real Madrid’s Vinícius Júnior sent off for hair-pulling in victory over VillarrealThe Guardian · 23 hours ago · Real Madrid, Villarreal, Barcelona SC

Vuskovic a target for Bayern - Sunday's gossipBBC Sport · 1 day ago · Bayern München, Brighton, AC Milan, Liverpool, Barcelona SC

Bayern Munich set their sights on FC Barcelona defender Jules KoundéGet French Football News · 1 day ago · Bayern München, Barcelona SC, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester United, Manchester City

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

LDU de Quito

3-5-2

1 G. Valle

30 G. Allala

4 Ricardo Ade

33 Leonel Enrique Quiñónez Padilla

57 M. Weigandt

20 F. Cornejo

8 J. Pretell

7 L. Rodríguez

23 Yerlin Quinonez

13 J. Corozo

11 M. Estrada

Coach · Gustavo Álvarez

Substitutes

77 · K. Velasco

44 · L. Segovia

31 · J. Rodríguez

18 · Washington Nahir Olvera Zambrano

3 · Richard Alexander Mina Caicedo

26 · I. Zambrano

10 · Alexander Antonio Alvarado Carriel

16 · Deyverson

67 · J. Carabalí

28 · J. Cuero

22 · Alexander Domínguez Carabalí

5 · Sebastían González Baquero

Barcelona SC

4-2-3-1

1 J. Contreras

18 B. Carabalí

33 J. Báez

4 G. Vallecilla

15 J. Perlaza

32 M. Lugo

27 W. Vargas

50 J. García

10 D. Díaz

51 Jefferson Wila

11 T. Rodríguez

Coach · Pablo Trobbiani

Substitutes

8 · S. Díaz

44 · J. Chalá

26 · B. Castillo

16 · L. Cano

9 · D. Benedetto

13 · José Luis Angulo

80 · Jandry Gomez

23 · T. Martínez

70 · M. Mejía

7 · E. Mendoza

28 · J. Quiñónez

14 · A. Rangel

Our number · ldu de quito winPublished 11 Oct 22:31

49% The market61%

Us49%

~~Market~~61%

We make LDU de Quito a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ldu de quito win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 57% to 61% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
LDU de Quito win	49%	61%	−12
Draw	28%	23%	+5
Barcelona SC win	23%	16%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	41%	51%	−10
Both teams to score	45%	49%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	68%	74%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	21%	30%	−10
LDU de Quito or draw	77%	84%	−7
LDU de Quito clean sheet	41%	–	–
Barcelona SC clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.6%

0123450 10.3 8.4 3.9 1 13.6 12.8 5.6 2 9.9 8.8 3.9 3 4.8 4.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+LDU de Quito down, Barcelona SC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,531 Liga Pro matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Pro matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.9% of games this season, across 252 played.

Head to head

14 previous meetings, 2.29 goals a meeting; 5 of 14 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

LDU de Quito at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Barcelona SC away: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for LDU de Quito, 0.89 for Barcelona SC. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 22:02. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

14 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.29

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 14

~~Both scored~~4 of 14

~~Last meetings~~BAR 0–1 LDU · LDU 0–2 BAR · BAR 2–2 LDU · LDU 3–0 BAR

Form · last six in Liga Pro

LDU DE QUITO

WLDWDW2–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 2–1

BARCELONA SC

DWLWDD0–0 · 3–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Independiente del Valle	31	+41	77
2	Macara	31	+9	54
3	Universidad Catolica	31	+23	51
4	Aucas	32	+3	50
5	LDU de Quito	31	+8	49
6	Libertad	32	+3	47
7	Barcelona SC	30	+7	44
8	Guayaquil City FC	32	−2	43
9	Leones del Norte	32	−4	40
10	Mushuc Runa SC	32	−4	39
11	Emelec	32	−11	39
12	Deportivo Cuenca	31	−12	37
13	Orense SC	31	−12	33
14	Tecnico Universitario	32	−15	33
15	Delfin SC	32	−11	32
16	Manta FC	32	−23	27