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Independiente del Valle v Aucas

Independiente del Valle

2–1Full time

Aucas

Liga Pro · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio Banco De Guayaquil

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Independiente del Valle 2–1 Aucas INDEPENDIENTE DEL VALLE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Independiente del Valle win~~65%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.187

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.221

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Independiente del Valle win at 65%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Independiente del Valle 65% before kick-off, 65% now. 0–0 · 65–20–15
3′Little has changed for our model: Independiente del Valle 65% before kick-off, 65% now. 0–0 · 65–20–15
44′Independiente del Valle ahead on 39′ through Junior Sornoza. 0–1. 0–1 · 21–30–49
45′Independiente del Valle ahead on 39′ through Junior Sornoza. 0–1. 0–1 · 21–30–50
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Independiente del Valle win: 65% at kick-off, 21% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Aucas win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Independiente del Valle win 21%)
46′SECOND HALF Independiente del Valle 0–1 Aucas
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Independiente del Valle win: 65% at kick-off, 21% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Aucas win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Independiente del Valle win 21%)
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Independiente del Valle win: 65% at kick-off, 21% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Aucas win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Independiente del Valle win 21%)
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Independiente del Valle win: 65% at kick-off, 21% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Aucas win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Independiente del Valle win 21%)
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Independiente del Valle win: 65% at kick-off, 21% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Aucas win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Independiente del Valle win 21%)
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Independiente del Valle 1–1 Aucas · Piero Andrés Guzmán Arrobo
59′⚽ GOAL · 54' Independiente del Valle 1–1 Aucas · Hugo Quintana
60′⚽ GOAL · 56' Independiente del Valle 1–1 Aucas · Hugo Quintana
61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Independiente del Valle · On: Steven Daniel Góngora Palacios · Off: Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez
61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Independiente del Valle · On: Djorkaeff Reascos · Off: Carlos González
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Hugo Quintana · Independiente del Valle
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Independiente del Valle · On: Ronald Briones · Off: Junior Sornoza
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Aucas · On: B. Oyola · Off: Byron Yardel Carabalí Delgado
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Aucas · On: B. Oyola · Off: Byron Yardel Carabalí Delgado
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Independiente del Valle 2–1 Aucas · Hugo Quintana
76′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Aucas · On: B. Oyola · Off: Byron Yardel Carabalí Delgado
77′⚽ GOAL · 74' Independiente del Valle 2–1 Aucas · Steven Daniel Góngora Palacios
80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Aucas · On: Cristhoper Zambrano · Off: Andres Mena
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Aucas · On: Alexander Bolaños · Off: Ayrton Preciado
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Independiente del Valle · On: Edwin Quintero · Off: Matias Mijail Perello
88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Independiente del Valle · On: Jhegson Mendez Carabali · Off: Hugo Quintana
FTFULL TIME Independiente del Valle 2–1 Aucas
FTIndependiente del Valle 2–1 Aucas · Independiente del Valle win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Independiente del Valle win65%

Draw21%

Aucas win15%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:30

Venue · Estadio Banco De Guayaquil

Referee · Gorky Stalin Araujo Zambrano

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Independiente del Valle

4-1-4-1

1 A. Quintana

13 Daykol Alejandro Romero Padilla

14 M. Carabajal

5 R. Schunke

19 L. Loor

6 J. Alcívar

11 M. Perelló

28 H. Quintana

10 J. Sornoza

31 Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez

9 C. González

Coach · Joaquín Papa

Substitutes

15 · G. Cortéz

18 · Steven Daniel Góngora Palacios

32 · J. Méndez

8 · Y. Ochoa

70 · M. Peralta

56 · E. Quintero

57 · H. Quintero

99 · D. Reasco

33 · Andy René Velasco García

23 · Juan Viacava

52 · Y. Vásquez

16 · R. Briones

Aucas

5-4-1

13 Hamilton Emanuel Piedra Ordóñez

28 R. Quiñónez

37 A. Zova

14 S. Tapiero

2 S. Morales

31 B. Carabalí

21 P. Guzmán

6 A. Spina

18 Andrés David Mena Montenegro

10 A. Preciado

29 Luis Aldair Arroyo Cabeza

Coach · N. Araujo

Substitutes

17 · C. Zambrano

57 · M. Vera

5 · Thiago

30 · B. Oyola

9 · R. Monti Azpiazu

1 · I. Chaves

4 · M. Burdisso

11 · A. Bolaños

7 · J. Andrade

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Independiente del Valle

4-1-4-1

1 A. Quintana

13 Daykol Alejandro Romero Padilla

14 M. Carabajal

5 R. Schunke

19 L. Loor

6 J. Alcívar

11 M. Perelló

28 H. Quintana

10 J. Sornoza

31 Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez

9 C. González

Coach · Joaquín Papa

Substitutes

15 · G. Cortéz

18 · Steven Daniel Góngora Palacios

32 · J. Méndez

8 · Y. Ochoa

70 · M. Peralta

56 · E. Quintero

57 · H. Quintero

99 · D. Reasco

33 · Andy René Velasco García

23 · Juan Viacava

52 · Y. Vásquez

16 · R. Briones

Aucas

5-4-1

13 Hamilton Emanuel Piedra Ordóñez

28 R. Quiñónez

37 A. Zova

14 S. Tapiero

2 S. Morales

31 B. Carabalí

21 P. Guzmán

6 A. Spina

18 Andrés David Mena Montenegro

10 A. Preciado

29 Luis Aldair Arroyo Cabeza

Coach · N. Araujo

Substitutes

17 · C. Zambrano

57 · M. Vera

5 · Thiago

30 · B. Oyola

9 · R. Monti Azpiazu

1 · I. Chaves

4 · M. Burdisso

11 · A. Bolaños

7 · J. Andrade

Our number · independiente del valle winPublished 10 Oct 17:54

65% The market62%

Us65%

~~Market~~62%

We make Independiente del Valle a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · independiente del valle win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 61% to 62% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Independiente del Valle win	65%	62%	+3
Draw	21%	23%	−2
Aucas win	15%	15%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	57%	54%	+3
Both teams to score	51%	50%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	80%	75%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	35%	33%	+1
Independiente del Valle or draw	85%	85%	+1
Independiente del Valle clean sheet	42%	–	–
Aucas clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.1%

0123450 5.6 4.3 2.0 1 10.5 9.7 4.1 2 11.1 9.7 4.3 3 7.8 6.7 3.0 4 4.1 3.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Independiente del Valle down, Aucas across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,528 Liga Pro matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Pro matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.6% of games this season, across 249 played.

Head to head

12 previous meetings, 2.92 goals a meeting; 6 of 12 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Independiente del Valle at home: 3.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Aucas away: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.10 goals for Independiente del Valle, 0.88 for Aucas. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 17:32. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

12 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.92

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 12

~~Both scored~~5 of 12

~~Last meetings~~AUC 0–3 IND · IND 2–2 AUC · IND 2–1 AUC · AUC 1–2 IND

Form · last six in Liga Pro

INDEPENDIENTE DEL VALLE

WWDLWW3–2 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 3–2

AUCAS

WWDDDL1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Independiente del Valle	30	+40	74
2	Macara	31	+9	54
3	Universidad Catolica	31	+23	51
4	Aucas	31	+4	50
5	LDU de Quito	31	+8	49
6	Libertad	32	+3	47
7	Barcelona SC	30	+7	44
8	Guayaquil City FC	31	−3	40
9	Leones del Norte	32	−4	40
10	Mushuc Runa SC	32	−4	39
11	Emelec	31	−10	39
12	Deportivo Cuenca	31	−12	37
13	Orense SC	31	−12	33
14	Tecnico Universitario	31	−14	33
15	Delfin SC	32	−11	32
16	Manta FC	31	−24	24