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Guayaquil City FC v Emelec

Guayaquil City FC

3–2Full time

Emelec

Liga Pro · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio Christian Benitez

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 01:00

Guayaquil City FC 3–2 Emelec GUAYAQUIL CITY FC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Guayaquil City FC win~~42%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.509

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.690

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 50 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Guayaquil City FC win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Guayaquil City FC was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–30–28
1′KICK-OFF Guayaquil City FC v Emelec
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Guayaquil City FC 0–1 Emelec
42′⚽ GOAL · 43' Guayaquil City FC 0–1 Emelec
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Guayaquil City FC 0–2 Emelec · Ronie Carrillo
45′SECOND HALF Guayaquil City FC 0–2 Emelec
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Guayaquil City FC 0–2 Emelec · Ronie Carrillo (assist Orlando Herrera)
47′⚽ GOAL · 46' Guayaquil City FC 0–2 Emelec · Ronie Carrillo
47′HALF-TIME Guayaquil City FC 0–2 Emelec
50′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Dixon Arroyo · Guayaquil City FC
52′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Angelo Mina · Emelec
56′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Ronie Carrillo · Emelec
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Guayaquil City FC 1–2 Emelec · Ronie Carrillo
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Guayaquil City FC 1–2 Emelec · Diego Dorregaray
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Guayaquil City FC 2–2 Emelec · Diego Dorregaray
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Guayaquil City FC 2–2 Emelec · Diego Dorregaray
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Emelec · On: Luca Klimowicz · Off: Ronie Carrillo
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Emelec · On: Gonzalo Nápoli · Off: Teodoro Arce
72′🟨 YELLOW · 73' P. González · Guayaquil City FC
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Emelec · On: Ariel Mina · Off: Ignacio Guerrico
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Guayaquil City FC · On: Kevin Sambonino · Off: Dixon Arroyo
91′⚽ GOAL · 91' Guayaquil City FC 3–2 Emelec · Diego Dorregaray
91′⚽ GOAL · 92' Guayaquil City FC 3–2 Emelec · Diego Dorregaray
93′⚽ GOAL · 91' Guayaquil City FC 3–2 Emelec · Diego Dorregaray
94′SUBSTITUTION · 94' Guayaquil City FC · On: Anderson Naula · Off: Kevin Sambonino
94′SUBSTITUTION · 94' Guayaquil City FC · On: Joshue·Quinonez · Off: P. González Corrected
96′SUBSTITUTION · 94' Guayaquil City FC · On: Joshue·Quinonez · Off: P. González Corrected
97′SUBSTITUTION · 98' Guayaquil City FC · On: Esnaider Cabezas · Off: Junior Ayovi
107′⚽ GOAL · 43' Guayaquil City FC 3–2 Emelec · Ronie Carrillo (assist Reixon David Saya Paredes)
107′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Guayaquil City FC · On: Pablo Mancilla · Off: S Laurino
107′⚽ GOAL · 46' Guayaquil City FC 3–2 Emelec · Ronie Carrillo (assist Orlando Herrera)
107′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Dixon Arroyo · Guayaquil City FC
107′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Angelo Mina · Emelec
107′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Ronie Carrillo · Emelec
107′⚽ GOAL · 62' Guayaquil City FC 3–2 Emelec · Diego Dorregaray (assist P. González)
107′PENALTY · 68' Guayaquil City FC
107′⚽ GOAL · 71' Guayaquil City FC 3–2 Emelec · Diego Dorregaray
107′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Emelec · On: Luca Klimowicz · Off: Ronie Carrillo
107′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Emelec · On: Gonzalo Nápoli · Off: Teodoro Arce
107′🟨 YELLOW · 72' P. González · Guayaquil City FC
107′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Emelec · On: Ariel Mina · Off: Ignacio Guerrico
107′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Emelec · On: Víctor Griffith · Off: Jefferson Valverde
107′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Guayaquil City FC · On: Kevin Sambonino · Off: Dixon Arroyo
107′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Jaime Ayoví · Emelec
107′PENALTY · 90' Guayaquil City FC
107′⚽ GOAL · 91' Guayaquil City FC 3–2 Emelec · Diego Dorregaray
107′SUBSTITUTION · 93' Emelec · On: luis Fragozo · Off: Juan Pablo·Ruiz Gomez
107′SUBSTITUTION · 94' Guayaquil City FC · On: Anderson Naula · Off: Kevin Sambonino
107′SUBSTITUTION · 98' Guayaquil City FC · On: Esnaider Cabezas · Off: Junior Ayovi
107′SUBSTITUTION · 98' Guayaquil City FC · On: Joshue·Quinonez · Off: Erick Patricio Ladines Calvache
FTFULL TIME Guayaquil City FC 3–2 Emelec
FTGuayaquil City FC 3–2 Emelec · Guayaquil City FC win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Guayaquil City FC win42%

Draw30%

Emelec win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 22:30

Venue · Estadio Christian Benitez

Referee · Oswaldo Contreras

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Guayaquil City FC

4-2-3-1

30 J. Pinos

33 R. Caicedo

3 Y. Rodríguez

4 E. Ladines

6 R. Arias

14 D. Arroyo

20 S. Laurino

80 P. González

17 J. Ayovi

21 D. Dorregaray

11 E. Mero

Coach · P. Gavilánez

Substitutes

70 · P. Mancilla

1 · G. Napa

19 · A. Naula

16 · J. Ordóñez

7 · J. Caicedo

9 · M. Palma

12 · Rodrigo Ramiro Perea Salazar

29 · J. Quiñónez

50 · F. Rivadeneira

15 · K. Sambonino

28 · J. Vivar

31 · E. Cabezas

Emelec

4-4-2

12 P. Ortíz

80 O. Herrera

27 F. León

4 E. Segura

3 I. Guerrico

19 J. Ruíz

5 A. Mina

32 J. Valverde

59 Reixon Saya

9 R. Carrillo

11 S. Arce

Coach · Ezequiel Medrán

Substitutes

13 · Luis Fernando Gómez Angulo

17 · J. Ayoví

26 · I. Cuero

15 · Luis Fragozo

6 · V. Griffith

7 · L. Klimowicz

30 · Madison Ariel Mina Ibarra

8 · G. Nápoli

10 · F. Pizzini

16 · S. Quintero

51 · S. Valencia

1 · Mario Alfredo Valero Sánchez

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Guayaquil City FC

4-2-3-1

30 J. Pinos

33 R. Caicedo

3 Y. Rodríguez

4 E. Ladines

6 R. Arias

14 D. Arroyo

20 S. Laurino

80 P. González

17 J. Ayovi

21 D. Dorregaray

11 E. Mero

Coach · P. Gavilánez

Substitutes

70 · P. Mancilla

1 · G. Napa

19 · A. Naula

16 · J. Ordóñez

7 · J. Caicedo

9 · M. Palma

12 · Rodrigo Ramiro Perea Salazar

29 · J. Quiñónez

50 · F. Rivadeneira

15 · K. Sambonino

28 · J. Vivar

31 · E. Cabezas

Emelec

4-4-2

12 P. Ortíz

80 O. Herrera

27 F. León

4 E. Segura

3 I. Guerrico

19 J. Ruíz

5 A. Mina

32 J. Valverde

59 Reixon Saya

9 R. Carrillo

11 S. Arce

Coach · Ezequiel Medrán

Substitutes

13 · Luis Fernando Gómez Angulo

17 · J. Ayoví

26 · I. Cuero

15 · Luis Fragozo

6 · V. Griffith

7 · L. Klimowicz

30 · Madison Ariel Mina Ibarra

8 · G. Nápoli

10 · F. Pizzini

16 · S. Quintero

51 · S. Valencia

1 · Mario Alfredo Valero Sánchez

Our number · guayaquil city fc winPublished 10 Oct 22:32

42% The market32%

Us42%

~~Market~~32%

We make Guayaquil City FC a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · guayaquil city fc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Guayaquil City FC win	42%	32%	+9
Draw	30%	31%	0
Emelec win	28%	37%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	35%	39%	−4
Both teams to score	42%	47%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	62%	64%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	16%	21%	−5
Guayaquil City FC or draw	72%	63%	+9
Guayaquil City FC clean sheet	40%	–	–
Emelec clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.0%

0123450 12.8 10.7 5.1 1 14.0 13.5 6.0 2 8.6 7.8 3.6 3 3.5 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Guayaquil City FC down, Emelec across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,528 Liga Pro matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Pro matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.6% of games this season, across 249 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 1.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Guayaquil City FC at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Emelec away: 0.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Guayaquil City FC, 0.92 for Emelec. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 22:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~2 of 8

~~Last meetings~~GUA 0–0 EME · EME 1–3 GUA · GUA 0–0 EME · EME 0–0 GUA

Form · last six in Liga Pro

GUAYAQUIL CITY FC

WWLLWD3–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 3–4 · 3–1 · 1–1

EMELEC

LWDWLL0–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Independiente del Valle	30	+40	74
2	Macara	31	+9	54
3	Universidad Catolica	31	+23	51
4	Aucas	31	+4	50
5	LDU de Quito	31	+8	49
6	Libertad	32	+3	47
7	Barcelona SC	30	+7	44
8	Guayaquil City FC	31	−3	40
9	Leones del Norte	32	−4	40
10	Mushuc Runa SC	32	−4	39
11	Emelec	31	−10	39
12	Deportivo Cuenca	31	−12	37
13	Orense SC	31	−12	33
14	Tecnico Universitario	31	−14	33
15	Delfin SC	32	−11	32
16	Manta FC	31	−24	24