Emelec v Guayaquil City FC prediction · Liga Pro

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

EmelecDrawGuayaquil City FC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Emelec 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Emelec are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Emelec 47%, draw 28%, Guayaquil City FC 24%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Emelec v Guayaquil City FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Emelec win47%

Draw28%

Guayaquil City FC win24%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 19:00

RoundPlacement Group · matchday 4

VenueEstadio George Capwell

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Emelec

Guayaquil City FC

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga Pro

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga Pro

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Guayaquil City FC	33	−6	43
9	Emelec	33	−9	42

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · emelec winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 19 Oct 03:56 · locked at kick-off

47% The market54%

Us47%

~~Market~~54%

We make Emelec a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Emelec v Guayaquil City FC~~1.37 – 0.90

~~Form · last six in Liga Pro this season · since 2 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 42 v 43~~9 v 8

~~The market · Emelec win~~54% · ours 47%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Emelec win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Emelec win	47%	54%	−7
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Guayaquil City FC win	24%	20%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	40%	44%	−4
Both teams to score	44%	46%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	66%	67%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	20%	24%	−4
Emelec or draw	76%	80%	−4
Emelec clean sheet	41%	–	–
Guayaquil City FC clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.7%

0123450 11.0 8.8 4.2 1 13.7 13.0 5.7 2 9.7 8.5 3.8 3 4.5 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Emelec down, Guayaquil City FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,546 Liga Pro matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Pro matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.2% of games this season, across 267 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Emelec at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Guayaquil City FC away: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Emelec, 0.90 for Guayaquil City FC. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~GUA 3–2 EME · GUA 0–0 EME · EME 1–3 GUA · GUA 0–0 EME

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Pro this season · since 2 Sept

EMELEC

DWLLLW1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 3–1

GUAYAQUIL CITY FC

LLWDWL0–1 · 3–4 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 0–4

The table

2026 · Placement Group

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Libertad	33	+7	50
8	Guayaquil City FC	33	−6	43
9	Emelec	33	−9	42
10	Leones del Norte	33	−6	40

The competition's standings before kick-off.

Emelec v Guayaquil City FC

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Pre-match prediction

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Rest & schedule

Emelec

Guayaquil City FC

The game in numbers

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Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · last six in Liga Pro this season · since 2 Sept

The table