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Deportivo Cuenca v Tecnico Universitario

Deportivo Cuenca
2–1Full time
Tecnico Universitario

Liga Pro · FRI 16 OCT · Alejandro Serrano Aguilar

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 00:00
Deportivo Cuenca 2–1 Tecnico Universitario DEPORTIVO CUENCA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Deportivo Cuenca win50%
The market said51%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.383
The market’s Brier score0.362

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 32 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Deportivo Cuenca win at 50%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Deportivo Cuenca v Tecnico Universitario
  3. 3′Little has changed for our model: Deportivo Cuenca 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–28–22
  4. 9′We said Deportivo Cuenca at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–16–7
  5. 9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Deportivo Cuenca 1–0 Tecnico Universitario
  6. 9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Deportivo Cuenca win: 50% at kick-off, 78% now
  7. 10′Deportivo Cuenca find the net on 10′. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–16–6
  8. 21′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Jonathan Alexis Majao Aguayo · Tecnico Universitario
  9. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 79–16–5
  10. 32′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Melvin Diaz · Deportivo Cuenca
  11. 33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Diego Armas · Tecnico Universitario
  12. 37′We said Deportivo Cuenca at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
  13. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Deportivo Cuenca win: 50% at kick-off, 80% now
  14. 39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Deportivo Cuenca 1–1 Tecnico Universitario
  15. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Deportivo Cuenca win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
  16. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Deportivo Cuenca win: 50% at kick-off, 39% now
  17. 41′Wagner Eriberto Caicedo Peralta scores for Tecnico Universitario on 40′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 39–41–20
  18. 42′Tecnico Universitario have had 11 attempts to 5 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 39–41–20
  19. 44′We said Deportivo Cuenca at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 38%. 1–1 · 38–43–20
  20. 44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Deportivo Cuenca win 38%)
  21. 45′SECOND HALF Deportivo Cuenca 1–1 Tecnico Universitario
  22. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Deportivo Cuenca · On: Gian Nardelli · Off: Eddie Guevara
  23. 46′12 shots for Tecnico Universitario, 6 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 37–44–19
  24. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Carlos Arboleda · Deportivo Cuenca
  25. 47′HALF-TIME Deportivo Cuenca 1–1 Tecnico Universitario
  26. 52′We said Deportivo Cuenca at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–48–18
  27. 53′16 shots for Tecnico Universitario, 8 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 34–48–18
  28. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Deportivo Cuenca win: 50% at kick-off, 30% now
  29. 61′We said Deportivo Cuenca at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–55–16
  30. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Deportivo Cuenca · On: David Gonzalez · Off: Jeremy Mejía
  31. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Tecnico Universitario · On: Heuyín Anel Guardia González · Off: Wagner Eriberto Caicedo Peralta
  32. 68′We said Deportivo Cuenca at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–62–14
  33. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Tecnico Universitario · On: Adrian Cela · Off: Bagner Delgado
  34. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Deportivo Cuenca win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
  35. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Tecnico Universitario · On: Anthony Castilo · Off: Cesar Castano
  36. 74′We said Deportivo Cuenca at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–70–11
  37. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Deportivo Cuenca · On: Edison Vega · Off: Melvin Diaz
  38. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Deportivo Cuenca · On: Jorge Ordonez · Off: Matías Klimowicz
  39. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Deportivo Cuenca · On: Cristhian Benalcazar · Off: Lucas Mancinelli
  40. 79′We said Deportivo Cuenca at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–78–8
  41. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Tecnico Universitario · On: Kener Arce · Off: Jonathan Alexis Majao Aguayo
  42. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Tecnico Universitario · On: Luis Estupiñan · Off: Johan Bocanegra
  43. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Deportivo Cuenca win: 50% at kick-off, 10% now
  44. 84′We said Deportivo Cuenca at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 8–87–5
  45. 84′20 shots for Tecnico Universitario, 14 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 8–87–5
  46. 90′We said Deportivo Cuenca at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
  47. 90′We said Deportivo Cuenca at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–1 · 97–3–0
  48. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Deportivo Cuenca 2–1 Tecnico Universitario
  49. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Deportivo Cuenca win: 50% at kick-off, 97% now
  50. 90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Deportivo Cuenca win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 3%)
  51. 91′3 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 98–2–0
  52. 91′90′: Cristhian Benalcazar on the scoresheet for Deportivo Cuenca, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 98–2–0
  53. 96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Stiwar Mena Serna · Tecnico Universitario
  54. FTFULL TIME Deportivo Cuenca 2–1 Tecnico Universitario
  55. FTDeportivo Cuenca 2–1 Tecnico Universitario · Deportivo Cuenca win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportivo Cuenca are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Deportivo Cuenca 50%, draw 28%, Tecnico Universitario 22%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Deportivo Cuenca v Tecnico UniversitarioBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Deportivo Cuenca win50%
Draw28%
Tecnico Universitario win22%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 21:30

RoundRelegation Group · matchday 3

VenueAlejandro Serrano Aguilar

RefereeRobert Cabrera

Line-ups

Deportivo Cuenca

4-1-4-1

Tecnico Universitario

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Deportivo Cuenca

Tecnico Universitario

5Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga Pro

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga Pro

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026 · Relegation Group

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
12Deportivo Cuenca32−1238
14Tecnico Universitario32−1533

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Deportivo Cuenca

4-1-4-1

1 F. Ferrero

23 E. Guevara

28 P. Boolsen

6 S. Postel

37 C. Arboleda

30 M. Maccari

7 Lucas Eduardo Mancinelli

16 J. Mejia

53 Yeltzin Hernán Erique Villigua

19 Melvin Fabricio Díaz Canencia

29 M. Klimowicz

Coach · A. Yllana

Substitutes

25 · Marcos Andrés López Cabrera

49 · David González

20 · B. García

12 · Ethan Gabriel Minda Humanante

2 · Ignacio Ariel Mosquera Arroyo

3 · G. Nardelli

43 · J. Ordoñez

18 · I. Piedra

11 · G. Rivero

8 · É. Vega

88 · C. Benalcazar

14 · J. Chacón

Tecnico Universitario

4-4-2

1 S. Razzeto

23 E. Mesa

13 J. Anaya

5 S. Mena

85 Y. Arce

10 J. Bocanegra

70 C. Castaño

33 J. Majao

25 B. Delgado

8 D. Armas

90 W. Caicedo

Coach · Ismael Blanco

Substitutes

12 · Ayrton Morales

9 · H. Guardia

7 · L. Estupiñán

79 · C. Cuero

53 · Rafael Francisco Chila Macias

29 · A. Cela

19 · Anthony Castilo

15 · F. Castilllo

67 · M. Carrasco

30 · Luis Arce Caicedo Kener

Our number · deportivo cuenca winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
50% The market51%
Us50%
Market51%

We make Deportivo Cuenca a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Deportivo Cuenca v Tecnico Universitario1.39 – 0.83
Form · last six in Liga Pro this season · since 29 AugW1 D3 L2 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 38 v 3312 v 14
The market · Deportivo Cuenca win51% · ours 50%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 12 OCT 04:0116 OCT 21:08
Our probability · Deportivo Cuenca win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Deportivo Cuenca win50%51%−1
Draw28%28%0
Tecnico Universitario win22%21%+1
Over 2.5 goals38%42%−4
Both teams to score42%46%−4
Over 1.5 goals65%66%−1
Over 3.5 goals19%23%−4
Deportivo Cuenca or draw78%79%−1
Deportivo Cuenca clean sheet44%––
Tecnico Universitario clean sheet25%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.7%
0123450 11.4 8.7 3.8 1 14.7 12.8 5.2 2 10.4 8.6 3.6 3 4.9 4.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo Cuenca down, Tecnico Universitario across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.30
Over 2.54 of 10
Both scored5 of 10
Last meetingsTEC 3–1 DEP · DEP 2–1 TEC · TEC 0–2 DEP · DEP 2–0 TEC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Pro this season · since 29 Aug

DEPORTIVO CUENCA

LWLDDD1–3 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–0

TECNICO UNIVERSITARIO

WLLWDL3–1 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026 · Relegation Group
#TEAMPGDPTS
11Mushuc Runa SC32−439
12Deportivo Cuenca32−1238
13Orense SC32−1234
14Tecnico Universitario32−1533
15Delfin SC32−1132
16Manta FC32−2327

The competition's standings before kick-off.