

Deportivo Cuenca v Tecnico Universitario
Deportivo Cuenca
Tecnico UniversitarioLiga Pro · FRI 16 OCT · Alejandro Serrano Aguilar
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Deportivo Cuenca win at 50%.
- 1′KICK-OFF Deportivo Cuenca v Tecnico Universitario
- 3′Little has changed for our model: Deportivo Cuenca 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–28–22
- 9′We said Deportivo Cuenca at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–16–7
- 9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Deportivo Cuenca 1–0 Tecnico Universitario
- 9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Deportivo Cuenca win: 50% at kick-off, 78% now
- 10′Deportivo Cuenca find the net on 10′. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–16–6
- 21′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Jonathan Alexis Majao Aguayo · Tecnico Universitario
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 79–16–5
- 32′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Melvin Diaz · Deportivo Cuenca
- 33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Diego Armas · Tecnico Universitario
- 37′We said Deportivo Cuenca at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
- 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Deportivo Cuenca win: 50% at kick-off, 80% now
- 39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Deportivo Cuenca 1–1 Tecnico Universitario
- 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Deportivo Cuenca win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
- 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Deportivo Cuenca win: 50% at kick-off, 39% now
- 41′Wagner Eriberto Caicedo Peralta scores for Tecnico Universitario on 40′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 39–41–20
- 42′Tecnico Universitario have had 11 attempts to 5 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 39–41–20
- 44′We said Deportivo Cuenca at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 38%. 1–1 · 38–43–20
- 44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Deportivo Cuenca win 38%)
- 45′SECOND HALF Deportivo Cuenca 1–1 Tecnico Universitario
- 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Deportivo Cuenca · On: Gian Nardelli · Off: Eddie Guevara
- 46′12 shots for Tecnico Universitario, 6 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 37–44–19
- 46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Carlos Arboleda · Deportivo Cuenca
- 47′HALF-TIME Deportivo Cuenca 1–1 Tecnico Universitario
- 52′We said Deportivo Cuenca at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–48–18
- 53′16 shots for Tecnico Universitario, 8 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 34–48–18
- 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Deportivo Cuenca win: 50% at kick-off, 30% now
- 61′We said Deportivo Cuenca at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–55–16
- 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Deportivo Cuenca · On: David Gonzalez · Off: Jeremy Mejía
- 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Tecnico Universitario · On: Heuyín Anel Guardia González · Off: Wagner Eriberto Caicedo Peralta
- 68′We said Deportivo Cuenca at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–62–14
- 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Tecnico Universitario · On: Adrian Cela · Off: Bagner Delgado
- 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Deportivo Cuenca win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
- 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Tecnico Universitario · On: Anthony Castilo · Off: Cesar Castano
- 74′We said Deportivo Cuenca at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–70–11
- 75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Deportivo Cuenca · On: Edison Vega · Off: Melvin Diaz
- 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Deportivo Cuenca · On: Jorge Ordonez · Off: Matías Klimowicz
- 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Deportivo Cuenca · On: Cristhian Benalcazar · Off: Lucas Mancinelli
- 79′We said Deportivo Cuenca at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–78–8
- 79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Tecnico Universitario · On: Kener Arce · Off: Jonathan Alexis Majao Aguayo
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Tecnico Universitario · On: Luis Estupiñan · Off: Johan Bocanegra
- 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Deportivo Cuenca win: 50% at kick-off, 10% now
- 84′We said Deportivo Cuenca at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 8–87–5
- 84′20 shots for Tecnico Universitario, 14 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 8–87–5
- 90′We said Deportivo Cuenca at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
- 90′We said Deportivo Cuenca at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–1 · 97–3–0
- 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Deportivo Cuenca 2–1 Tecnico Universitario
- 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Deportivo Cuenca win: 50% at kick-off, 97% now
- 90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Deportivo Cuenca win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 3%)
- 91′3 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 98–2–0
- 91′90′: Cristhian Benalcazar on the scoresheet for Deportivo Cuenca, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 98–2–0
- 96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Stiwar Mena Serna · Tecnico Universitario
- FTFULL TIME Deportivo Cuenca 2–1 Tecnico Universitario
- FTDeportivo Cuenca 2–1 Tecnico Universitario · Deportivo Cuenca win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassDeportivo Cuenca are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Deportivo Cuenca 50%, draw 28%, Tecnico Universitario 22%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 42%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Deportivo Cuenca win50%
Tecnico Universitario win22%Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 21:30
RoundRelegation Group · matchday 3
VenueAlejandro Serrano Aguilar
RefereeRobert Cabrera
Match timeline
All events
Deportivo CuencaMIN
Tecnico UniversitarioEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Deportivo Cuenca
4-1-4-1
Tecnico Universitario
4-4-2
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Deportivo Cuenca
Tecnico Universitario
Last match: 11 Oct · Liga Pro
Last match: 10 Oct · Liga Pro
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Deportivo Cuenca
4-1-4-1
1 F. Ferrero
23 E. Guevara
28 P. Boolsen
6 S. Postel
37 C. Arboleda
30 M. Maccari
7 Lucas Eduardo Mancinelli
16 J. Mejia
53 Yeltzin Hernán Erique Villigua
19 Melvin Fabricio Díaz Canencia
29 M. Klimowicz
Coach · A. Yllana
Substitutes
25 · Marcos Andrés López Cabrera
49 · David González
20 · B. García
12 · Ethan Gabriel Minda Humanante
2 · Ignacio Ariel Mosquera Arroyo
3 · G. Nardelli
43 · J. Ordoñez
18 · I. Piedra
11 · G. Rivero
8 · É. Vega
88 · C. Benalcazar
14 · J. Chacón
Tecnico Universitario
4-4-2
1 S. Razzeto
23 E. Mesa
13 J. Anaya
5 S. Mena
85 Y. Arce
10 J. Bocanegra
70 C. Castaño
33 J. Majao
25 B. Delgado
8 D. Armas
90 W. Caicedo
Coach · Ismael Blanco
Substitutes
12 · Ayrton Morales
9 · H. Guardia
7 · L. Estupiñán
79 · C. Cuero
53 · Rafael Francisco Chila Macias
29 · A. Cela
19 · Anthony Castilo
15 · F. Castilllo
67 · M. Carrasco
30 · Luis Arce Caicedo Kener
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Deportivo Cuenca
4-1-4-1
1 F. Ferrero
23 E. Guevara
28 P. Boolsen
6 S. Postel
37 C. Arboleda
30 M. Maccari
7 Lucas Eduardo Mancinelli
16 J. Mejia
53 Yeltzin Hernán Erique Villigua
19 Melvin Fabricio Díaz Canencia
29 M. Klimowicz
Coach · A. Yllana
Substitutes
25 · Marcos Andrés López Cabrera
49 · David González
20 · B. García
12 · Ethan Gabriel Minda Humanante
2 · Ignacio Ariel Mosquera Arroyo
3 · G. Nardelli
43 · J. Ordoñez
18 · I. Piedra
11 · G. Rivero
8 · É. Vega
88 · C. Benalcazar
14 · J. Chacón
Tecnico Universitario
4-4-2
1 S. Razzeto
23 E. Mesa
13 J. Anaya
5 S. Mena
85 Y. Arce
10 J. Bocanegra
70 C. Castaño
33 J. Majao
25 B. Delgado
8 D. Armas
90 W. Caicedo
Coach · Ismael Blanco
Substitutes
12 · Ayrton Morales
9 · H. Guardia
7 · L. Estupiñán
79 · C. Cuero
53 · Rafael Francisco Chila Macias
29 · A. Cela
19 · Anthony Castilo
15 · F. Castilllo
67 · M. Carrasco
30 · Luis Arce Caicedo Kener
We make Deportivo Cuenca a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–0.8.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Cuenca win | 50% | 51% | −1 |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 0 |
| Tecnico Universitario win | 22% | 21% | +1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 42% | −4 |
| Both teams to score | 42% | 46% | −4 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% | 66% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 23% | −4 |
| Deportivo Cuenca or draw | 78% | 79% | −1 |
| Deportivo Cuenca clean sheet | 44% | – | – |
| Tecnico Universitario clean sheet | 25% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Liga Pro this season · since 29 Aug
DEPORTIVO CUENCA
TECNICO UNIVERSITARIO
The table
2026 · Relegation Group| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mushuc Runa SC | 32 | −4 | 39 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 32 | −12 | 38 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 32 | −12 | 34 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 32 | −15 | 33 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 32 | −11 | 32 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 32 | −23 | 27 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Mushuc Runa SC
Orense SC
Delfin SC
Manta FC