Home › Football › Liga Pro › Delfin SC v Mushuc Runa SC

Delfin SC v Mushuc Runa SC

Delfin SC

3–2Full time

Mushuc Runa SC

Liga Pro · FRI 9 OCT · Estadio Jocay

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 00:00

Delfin SC 3–2 Mushuc Runa SC DELFIN SC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Delfin SC win~~38%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.583

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.496

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Delfin SC win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Delfin SC 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–29–33
1′KICK-OFF Delfin SC v Mushuc Runa SC
20′🟨 YELLOW · 20' José Hernández · Mushuc Runa SC
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Delfin SC 0–1 Mushuc Runa SC
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Delfin SC 0–1 Mushuc Runa SC · Renso Tufino
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Delfin SC 0–2 Mushuc Runa SC · Renso Tufino
35′⚽ GOAL · 36' Delfin SC 0–2 Mushuc Runa SC · Ronny Biojó
36′Mushuc Runa SC ahead on 35′ through Ronny Biojó. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–7–91
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Delfin SC win: 38% at kick-off, 2% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Mushuc Runa SC win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Delfin SC win 2%)
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Delfin SC 1–2 Mushuc Runa SC · Ronny Biojó
40′⚽ GOAL · 41' Delfin SC 1–2 Mushuc Runa SC · Jefferson Arce
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Delfin SC 2–2 Mushuc Runa SC · Jefferson Arce
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Delfin SC 2–2 Mushuc Runa SC · Erick Zuniga
45′SECOND HALF Delfin SC 2–2 Mushuc Runa SC
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Delfin SC 3–2 Mushuc Runa SC · Erick Zuniga
46′⚽ GOAL · 47' Delfin SC 3–2 Mushuc Runa SC · Danny Luna
48′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Cristopher Angulo · Mushuc Runa SC
50′SECOND HALF Delfin SC 2–2 Mushuc Runa SC
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Delfin SC 3–2 Mushuc Runa SC · Erick Zuniga
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Delfin SC 3–2 Mushuc Runa SC · Franco Ayunta
56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Franco Ayunta · Delfin SC
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Mushuc Runa SC · On: Elian Caicedo · Off: Renso Tufino
62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Mushuc Runa SC · On: Jackson Alexander González Simisterra · Off: Freddy Mina
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Mushuc Runa SC · On: Bryan Corozo · Off: Arnaldo Zambrano
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Delfin SC · On: Luis Armando Castro Garzón · Off: Gerónimo Heredia
74′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Delfin SC · On: Kevin Ushina · Off: Jefferson Arce
74′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Mushuc Runa SC · On: Lucas Maximiliano·Lemos Mayuncaldi · Off: Tomson Minda
74′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Mushuc Runa SC · On: Kevin Peralta · Off: Nicolás Davila
80′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Delfin SC · On: Maikel Reyes · Off: Bryan Hernandez
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Delfin SC 3–2 Mushuc Runa SC · Erick Zuniga
88′⚽ GOAL · 87' Delfin SC 3–2 Mushuc Runa SC · Maikel Reyes
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Maikel Reyes · Delfin SC
91′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Delfin SC · On: Emerson Leao Espinoza Tenorio · Off: Jonathan Morocho
91′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Delfin SC · On: Darío Aimar · Off: Danny Luna
FTFULL TIME Delfin SC 3–2 Mushuc Runa SC
FTDelfin SC 3–2 Mushuc Runa SC · Delfin SC win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Delfin SC win38%

Draw30%

Mushuc Runa SC win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 21:30

Venue · Estadio Jocay

Referee · Guillermo Enrique Guerrero Alcivar

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Delfin SC

4-2-3-1

21 B. Heras

77 B. Hernández

32 A. Bedoya

5 O. Medina

14 E. Zúñiga

34 G. Heredia

18 J. Morocho

31 Jefferson Stalin Arce Mina

10 Danny Gabriel Luna Morán

50 T. Ozaeta

9 F. Ayunta

Coach · Juan Carlos León

Substitutes

78 · K. Ushiña

99 · Leao Tenorio

11 · F. Perinciolo

8 · K. Moreno

70 · E. Espinoza

22 · J. Cárdenas

23 · L. Cornejo

55 · M. Reyes

16 · L. Castro

39 · Edison Caicedo Peralta Eber

51 · C. Banguero

3 · D. Aimar

Mushuc Runa SC

4-4-2

25 R. Formento

99 Cristopher Adonis Angulo Caicedo

4 Ronny Alfonso Biojo Preciado

30 F. Carabalí

33 M. Hernández

10 F. Mina

8 A. Zambrano

5 Esteban Nicolás Dávila Alarcón

28 M. Perea

9 R. Tufino

7 T. Minda

Coach · P. Vélez

Substitutes

61 · J. Caicedo

14 · E. Caicedo

19 · B. Corozo

50 · J. Cusme

2 · J. Flor

18 · J. Gonzalez

52 · D. Merino

23 · L. Lemos

42 · W. Pabón

26 · K. Peralta

37 · J. Quiñones

57 · Aldair Fransua Folleco Leon

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Delfin SC

4-2-3-1

21 B. Heras

77 B. Hernández

32 A. Bedoya

5 O. Medina

14 E. Zúñiga

34 G. Heredia

18 J. Morocho

31 Jefferson Stalin Arce Mina

10 Danny Gabriel Luna Morán

50 T. Ozaeta

9 F. Ayunta

Coach · Juan Carlos León

Substitutes

78 · K. Ushiña

99 · Leao Tenorio

11 · F. Perinciolo

8 · K. Moreno

70 · E. Espinoza

22 · J. Cárdenas

23 · L. Cornejo

55 · M. Reyes

16 · L. Castro

39 · Edison Caicedo Peralta Eber

51 · C. Banguero

3 · D. Aimar

Mushuc Runa SC

4-4-2

25 R. Formento

99 Cristopher Adonis Angulo Caicedo

4 Ronny Alfonso Biojo Preciado

30 F. Carabalí

33 M. Hernández

10 F. Mina

8 A. Zambrano

5 Esteban Nicolás Dávila Alarcón

28 M. Perea

9 R. Tufino

7 T. Minda

Coach · P. Vélez

Substitutes

61 · J. Caicedo

14 · E. Caicedo

19 · B. Corozo

50 · J. Cusme

2 · J. Flor

18 · J. Gonzalez

52 · D. Merino

23 · L. Lemos

42 · W. Pabón

26 · K. Peralta

37 · J. Quiñones

57 · Aldair Fransua Folleco Leon

Our number · delfin sc winPublished 9 Oct 21:34

38% The market43%

Us38%

~~Market~~43%

We make Delfin SC a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · delfin sc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 39% to 43% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Delfin SC win	38%	43%	−5
Draw	30%	30%	0
Mushuc Runa SC win	33%	27%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	38%	39%	−1
Both teams to score	45%	46%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	65%	64%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	19%	21%	−2
Delfin SC or draw	67%	73%	−5
Delfin SC clean sheet	35%	–	–
Mushuc Runa SC clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 11.5 11.1 6.1 2.2 1 12.2 13.6 7.0 2.5 2 7.3 7.6 4.0 3 2.9 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Delfin SC down, Mushuc Runa SC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,526 Liga Pro matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Pro matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.1% of games this season, across 247 played.

Head to head

12 previous meetings, 3.08 goals a meeting; 7 of 12 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Delfin SC at home: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Mushuc Runa SC away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Delfin SC, 1.06 for Mushuc Runa SC. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 21:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

12 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.08

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 12

~~Both scored~~4 of 12

~~Last meetings~~MUS 1–0 DEL · DEL 1–0 MUS · DEL 3–1 MUS · MUS 2–0 DEL

Form · last six in Liga Pro

DELFIN SC

LLWLDD0–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

MUSHUC RUNA SC

DWDDLD0–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Independiente del Valle	30	+40	74
2	Macara	31	+9	54
3	Universidad Catolica	31	+23	51
4	Aucas	31	+4	50
5	LDU de Quito	31	+8	49
6	Barcelona SC	30	+7	44
7	Libertad	31	0	44
8	Leones del Norte	31	−1	40
9	Guayaquil City FC	31	−3	40
10	Mushuc Runa SC	31	−3	39
11	Emelec	31	−10	39
12	Deportivo Cuenca	31	−12	37
13	Orense SC	31	−12	33
14	Tecnico Universitario	31	−14	33
15	Delfin SC	31	−12	29
16	Manta FC	31	−24	24