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Delfin SC v Manta FC

Delfin SC
4–2Full time
Manta FC

Liga Pro · SUN 18 OCT · Estadio Jocay

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 20:01
Delfin SC 4–2 Manta FC DELFIN SC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Delfin SC win45%
The market said42%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.462
The market’s Brier score0.501

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay23 notes · 36 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Delfin SC win at 45%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Delfin SC was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–30–26
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Delfin SC v Manta FC
  4. 21′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Jefferson Troya · Manta FC
  5. 22′We published Delfin SC at 45%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
  6. 22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Delfin SC 1–0 Manta FC
  7. 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Delfin SC win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
  8. 23′22′: Franco Ayunta on the scoresheet for Delfin SC, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 75–18–7
  9. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 76–18–6
  10. 36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Delfin SC 1–1 Manta FC
  11. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Delfin SC win: 45% at kick-off, 37% now
  12. 37′Manta FC level it on 37′ through Jose Enrique Angulo Caicedo. 1–1. 1–1 · 36–41–23
  13. 37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Delfin SC win 36%)
  14. 38′We said Delfin SC at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 1–2 · 11–25–64
  15. 38′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 11–25–64
  16. 38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Delfin SC 1–2 Manta FC
  17. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Delfin SC win: 45% at kick-off, 11% now
  18. 38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Manta FC win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Draw 25%)
  19. 40′Jose Enrique Angulo Caicedo scores for Manta FC on 38′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 11–25–64
  20. 45′We said Delfin SC at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–24–66
  21. 45′HALF-TIME Delfin SC 2–2 Manta FC
  22. 45′SECOND HALF Delfin SC 2–2 Manta FC
  23. 48′We said Delfin SC at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 2–2 · 33–46–21
  24. 48′4 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 33–46–21
  25. 48′45′: Franco Ayunta on the scoresheet for Delfin SC, making it 2–2. 2–2 · 33–46–21
  26. 48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Delfin SC 2–2 Manta FC
  27. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Delfin SC win: 45% at kick-off, 33% now
  28. 48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Manta FC win 21%)
  29. 55′We said Delfin SC at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 29–51–19
  30. 56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Anthony Bedoya Caicedo · Delfin SC
  31. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Delfin SC win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
  32. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Manta FC · On: Robert Burbano · Off: Jefferson Troya
  33. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Manta FC · On: Jean Carlos Blanco Becerra · Off: Jose Enrique Angulo Caicedo
  34. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Manta FC · On: Jeremy Mina · Off: J. Vergés
  35. 64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Alexander Medina · Manta FC
  36. 65′We said Delfin SC at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 24–60–16
  37. 65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Bryan Hernandez · Delfin SC
  38. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Delfin SC · On: Enzo Alejandro Rubio · Off: Bryan Hernandez
  39. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Delfin SC · On: Maikel Reyes · Off: Jefferson Arce
  40. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Delfin SC · On: Emerson Leao Espinoza Tenorio · Off: Gerónimo Heredia
  41. 72′We said Delfin SC at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 19–68–13
  42. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Manta FC · On: Juan Nazareno · Off: Alexander Medina
  43. 73′We published Delfin SC at 45%. Our model now makes it 88%. 3–2 · 88–11–1
  44. 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Delfin SC 3–2 Manta FC
  45. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Delfin SC win: 45% at kick-off, 88% now
  46. 73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Delfin SC win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Draw 11%)
  47. 75′Delfin SC ahead on 74′ through Franco Ayunta. 3–2. 3–2 · 89–10–1
  48. 75′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 89–10–1
  49. 77′We published Delfin SC at 45%. Our model now makes it 90%. 3–2 · 90–9–1
  50. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Manta FC · On: Ángel Ledesma · Off: Juan Jimenez
  51. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Delfin SC · On: Lucas Dante Cornejo · Off: Danny Luna
  52. 80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Lucas Dante Cornejo · Delfin SC
  53. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Delfin SC win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
  54. 85′We published Delfin SC at 45%. Our model now makes it 95%. 3–2 · 95–5–0
  55. 94′We published Delfin SC at 45%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  56. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Delfin SC · On: Kevin Ushina · Off: Franco Ayunta
  57. 94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Delfin SC 4–2 Manta FC
  58. 95′Full time, 4–2. We called Delfin SC at 45% — that one lands. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  59. 95′Kevin Ushina scores for Delfin SC on 90′ — 4–2. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  60. FTFULL TIME Delfin SC 4–2 Manta FC
  61. FTDelfin SC 4–2 Manta FC · Delfin SC win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Delfin SC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Delfin SC 45%, draw 30%, Manta FC 26%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Delfin SC v Manta FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Delfin SC win45%
Draw30%
Manta FC win26%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:30

RoundRelegation Group · matchday 3

VenueEstadio Jocay

RefereeGorky Stalin Araujo Zambrano

Line-ups

Delfin SC

4-2-3-1

Manta FC

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Delfin SC

Manta FC

9Days since last match8

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga Pro

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga Pro

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026 · Relegation Group

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
15Delfin SC32−1132
16Manta FC32−2327

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Delfin SC

4-2-3-1

21 B. Heras

77 B. Hernández

32 A. Bedoya

5 O. Medina

14 E. Zúñiga

34 G. Heredia

18 J. Morocho

31 Jefferson Stalin Arce Mina

10 Danny Gabriel Luna Morán

50 T. Ozaeta

9 F. Ayunta

Coach · Juan Carlos León

Substitutes

3 · D. Aimar

16 · L. Castro

33 · A. Cisneros

23 · L. Cornejo

22 · J. Cárdenas

70 · E. Espinoza

8 · K. Moreno

80 · B. Peña

55 · M. Reyes

17 · E. Rubio

78 · K. Ushiña

39 · Edison Caicedo Peralta Eber

Manta FC

4-4-2

12 F. Zambrano

23 A. Medina

4 J. Nazareno

24 O. Moscarelli

31 G. Mina

27 Jefferson Alberto Troya Vera

6 J. Jiménez

5 B. Ramírez

55 J. Vergés

17 José Enrique Angulo Caicedo

19 J. Alman

Coach · Eduardo Carvajal Burgos Javier

Substitutes

7 · Walter Leodán Chalá Vásquez

1 · W. Chávez

20 · Josué Chala

14 · J. Mina

25 · J. Monaga

70 · J. Nazareno

52 · J. Rialpe

8 · M. Valencia

10 · R. Burbano

9 · J. Blanco

11 · F. Asagidigbi

28 · Á. Ledesma

Our number · delfin sc winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 04:00 · locked at kick-off
45% The market42%
Us45%
Market42%

We make Delfin SC a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Delfin SC v Manta FC1.26 – 0.89
Form · last six in Liga Pro this season · since 28 AugW2 D2 L2 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 32 v 2715 v 16
The market · Delfin SC win42% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50%55% 12 OCT 04:0118 OCT 16:53
Our probability · Delfin SC win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Delfin SC win45%42%+3
Draw30%30%0
Manta FC win26%28%−2
Over 2.5 goals36%42%−6
Both teams to score42%49%−7
Over 1.5 goals63%66%−3
Over 3.5 goals17%23%−6
Delfin SC or draw74%72%+2
Delfin SC clean sheet41%––
Manta FC clean sheet29%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.4%
0123450 12.3 10.1 4.6 1 14.4 13.3 5.7 2 9.2 8.1 3.6 3 3.9 3.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Delfin SC down, Manta FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting2.33
Over 2.53 of 6
Both scored3 of 6
Last meetingsMAN 0–1 DEL · DEL 0–1 MAN · DEL 2–0 MAN · MAN 2–2 DEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Pro this season · since 28 Aug

DELFIN SC

LWLDDW0–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–2

MANTA FC

WLLDWW2–0 · 3–4 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2026 · Relegation Group
#TEAMPGDPTS
11Deportivo Cuenca33−1141
12Mushuc Runa SC32−439
13Orense SC32−1234
14Tecnico Universitario33−1633
15Delfin SC32−1132
16Manta FC32−2327

The competition's standings before kick-off.