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Barcelona SC v Universidad Catolica

Barcelona SC

1–1Full time

Universidad Catolica

Liga Pro · SUN 18 OCT · Estadio Monumental Isidro Romero Carbo

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 01:00

Barcelona SC 1–1 Universidad Catolica BARCELONA SC WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Barcelona SC win~~43%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.817

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.789

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 43 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Barcelona SC win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Barcelona SC 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–27–30
1′KICK-OFF Barcelona SC v Universidad Catolica
8′Universidad Catolica find the net on 8′. 0–1. 0–1 · 20–23–58
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Barcelona SC 0–1 Universidad Catolica
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Barcelona SC win: 43% at kick-off, 20% now
8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' Universidad Catolica win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Barcelona SC win 20%)
9′We said Barcelona SC at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–23–58
11′GOAL DISALLOWED · 9' Mauro Díaz · Universidad Catolica
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Barcelona SC win: 43% at kick-off, 42% now
11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Barcelona SC win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Universidad Catolica win 30%)
21′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Gregori Anangonó · Universidad Catolica
21′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Tomás Rodríguez · Barcelona SC
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Barcelona SC win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME Barcelona SC 0–0 Universidad Catolica
46′SECOND HALF Barcelona SC 0–0 Universidad Catolica
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+3' Barcelona SC win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
53′We said Barcelona SC at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 0–0 · 31–45–24
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.6 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 31–46–23
60′We said Barcelona SC at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–50–22
65′We said Barcelona SC at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 0–1 · 5–21–75
65′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Jefferson Wila · Barcelona SC
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Barcelona SC 0–1 Universidad Catolica
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Barcelona SC win: 43% at kick-off, 5% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Universidad Catolica win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 21%)
66′We said Barcelona SC at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
68′We said Barcelona SC at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–58–18
68′GOAL DISALLOWED · 68' Universidad Catolica
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Barcelona SC win: 43% at kick-off, 23% now
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Universidad Catolica win 18%)
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Barcelona SC 0–1 Universidad Catolica
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Barcelona SC win: 43% at kick-off, 4% now
69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Universidad Catolica win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 19%)
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Barcelona SC win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
73′Universidad Catolica ahead on 65′ through Azarias Londono. 0–1. 0–1 · 3–17–80
74′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Azarias Londono · Universidad Catolica
75′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Johan Garcia · Barcelona SC
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Barcelona SC · On: Jefferson Intriago · Off: Johan Garcia
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Barcelona SC · On: Luis Cano · Off: Darío Benedetto
80′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Johan Garcia · Barcelona SC
80′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Jonathan Perlaza · Barcelona SC
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Barcelona SC · On: Sergio Díaz · Off: Damián Díaz
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Barcelona SC · On: Erick Mendoza · Off: Jefferson Wila
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Universidad Catolica · On: Jonnathan Mina · Off: Mauricio Sebastian·Alonso Pereda Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Universidad Catolica · On: Carlos Medina · Off: Mauro Díaz
89′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Matias Gonzalo Lugo · Barcelona SC
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Barcelona SC · On: Byron Castillo · Off: Jonathan Perlaza
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Universidad Catolica · On: Darwin Carlos Nazareno Arroyo · Off: Eddy Mejia
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Universidad Catolica · On: Byron Palacios · Off: José Fajardo
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Barcelona SC 1–1 Universidad Catolica
95′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+5' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Universidad Catolica win 1%)
97′Erick Mendoza scores for Barcelona SC on 90′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 2–97–1
101′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 0–2–98
101′⚽ GOAL · 90+11' Barcelona SC 1–2 Universidad Catolica
101′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+11' Universidad Catolica win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 2%)
FTFULL TIME Barcelona SC 1–2 Universidad Catolica
FTBarcelona SC 1–1 Universidad Catolica · Barcelona SC win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Barcelona SC are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Barcelona SC 43%, draw 27%, Universidad Catolica 30%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Barcelona SC v Universidad CatolicaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Barcelona SC win43%

Draw27%

Universidad Catolica win30%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 22:30

RoundChampionship Group · matchday 3

VenueEstadio Monumental Isidro Romero Carbo

RefereeAugusto Bergelio Aragon Bautista

Line-ups

Barcelona SC

4-2-3-1

Universidad Catolica

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Barcelona SC

Universidad Catolica

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga Pro

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Universidad Catolica	32	+22	51
6	Barcelona SC	31	+6	44

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Barcelona’s Jules Koundé and Eric Garcia withdrawn from PSG clashGet French Football News · 18 Oct 17:22 · Barcelona SC, Paris Saint Germain PSG full-back Nuno Mendes ruled out for Barcelona clashGet French Football News · 18 Oct 17:07 · Paris Saint Germain, Barcelona SC

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Barcelona SC

4-2-3-1

1 J. Contreras

18 B. Carabalí

33 J. Báez

4 G. Vallecilla

15 J. Perlaza

32 M. Lugo

50 J. García

11 T. Rodríguez

10 D. Díaz

51 Jefferson Wila

9 D. Benedetto

Coach · Pablo Trobbiani

Substitutes

21 · H. Villalba

13 · José Luis Angulo

16 · L. Cano

26 · B. Castillo

8 · S. Díaz

80 · Jandry Gomez

35 · J. Intriago

23 · T. Martínez

20 · C. Medina

7 · E. Mendoza

28 · J. Quiñónez

14 · A. Rangel

Universidad Catolica

4-4-2

12 J. Lara

29 G. Anangonó

33 L. Cangá

3 Jose García

30 E. Mejía

9 A. Londoño

8 D. Clavijo

5 J. Cacciabue

32 M. Alonso

7 J. Fajardo

28 M. Díaz

Coach · D. Martínez

Substitutes

1 · Lucas Cueva Gordillo

10 · F. Martínez

37 · C. Medina

15 · L. Moreno

24 · Darwin Carlos Nazareno Arroyo

18 · B. Palacios

23 · Alex Andrés Rodríguez Reascos

19 · M. Sevillano

17 · R. Troya

44 · E. Valencia

26 · Foad Eid

14 · J. Mina

Our number · barcelona sc winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market41%

Us43%

~~Market~~41%

We make Barcelona SC a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Barcelona SC v Universidad Catolica~~1.45 – 1.17

~~Form · last six in Liga Pro this season · since 23 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 44 v 51~~6 v 4

~~The market · Barcelona SC win~~41% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Barcelona SC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Barcelona SC win	43%	41%	+2
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Universidad Catolica win	30%	31%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	49%	49%	0
Both teams to score	53%	54%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	74%	73%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	27%	28%	−1
Barcelona SC or draw	70%	69%	+1
Barcelona SC clean sheet	31%	–	–
Universidad Catolica clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 7.7 8.2 5.0 1 10.2 12.6 7.1 2.8 2 7.6 8.8 5.2 2.0 3 3.7 4.3 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Barcelona SC down, Universidad Catolica across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,538 Liga Pro matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Pro matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.9% of games this season, across 259 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Barcelona SC at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Universidad Catolica away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Barcelona SC, 1.17 for Universidad Catolica. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 22:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~UNI 2–1 BAR · BAR 1–1 UNI · BAR 1–1 UNI · UNI 1–1 BAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Pro this season · since 23 Aug

BARCELONA SC

WLWDDL3–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2

UNIVERSIDAD CATOLICA

DDWWLL2–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026 · Championship Group

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Independiente del Valle	32	+40	77
2	Macara	33	+11	60
3	LDU de Quito	32	+9	52
4	Universidad Catolica	32	+22	51
5	Aucas	32	+3	50
6	Barcelona SC	31	+6	44

The competition's standings before kick-off.

Barcelona SC v Universidad Catolica

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Barcelona SC

Universidad Catolica

Rest & schedule

Barcelona SC

Universidad Catolica

The game in numbers

League table

In the news

Line-ups

Barcelona SC

Universidad Catolica

Match statistics

Line-ups

Barcelona SC

Universidad Catolica

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · last six in Liga Pro this season · since 23 Aug

The table