Aucas v LDU de Quito

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Aucas win at 37%.
2. 1′KICK-OFF Aucas v LDU de Quito
3. 2′Much as we predicted: Aucas was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 36–29–35
4. 11′🟨 YELLOW · 10' Mateo Burdisso · Aucas
5. 13′We published Aucas at 37%. Our model now makes it 66%. 1–0 · 66–21–13
6. 13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Aucas 1–0 LDU de Quito
7. 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Aucas win: 37% at kick-off, 66% now
8. 14′12′: B. Oyola on the scoresheet for Aucas, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 67–21–13
9. 14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Aucas win: 37% at kick-off, 67% now
10. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 69–21–10
11. 35′We published Aucas at 37%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
12. 44′SUBSTITUTION · 43' Aucas · On: Alexander Bolaños · Off: B. Oyola
13. 45′HALF-TIME Aucas 1–1 LDU de Quito
14. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' LDU de Quito · On: Alexander Alvarado · Off: Lucas Rodriguez
15. 46′SECOND HALF Aucas 1–1 LDU de Quito
16. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' LDU de Quito · On: Elvis Kevin Velasco Chere · Off: Janner Corozo
17. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' LDU de Quito · On: Jose Carabali · Off: Leonel Quinonez
18. 48′PENALTY · 45+2' LDU de Quito
19. 50′LDU de Quito level it on 45′ through Michael Estrada. 1–1. 1–1 · 28–46–27
20. 50′⚽ GOAL · 45+4' Aucas 1–1 LDU de Quito · Michael Estrada (penalty)
21. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+5' Aucas win: 37% at kick-off, 28% now
22. 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+5' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Aucas win 28%)
23. 51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Agostino Spina · Aucas
24. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Aucas win: 37% at kick-off, 27% now
25. 57′We said Aucas at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 1–1 · 25–51–24
26. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Aucas · On: Luis Arroyo · Off: Alexander Bolaños
27. 63′We said Aucas at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 23–56–22
28. 72′We said Aucas at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 1–1 · 17–66–17
29. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Aucas · On: Michael Carcelen · Off: Piero Andrés Guzmán Arrobo
30. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Aucas · On: Byron Yardel Carabalí Delgado · Off: Rafael Monti Azpiazú
31. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Aucas win: 37% at kick-off, 17% now
32. 76′We said Aucas at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–72–14
33. 83′We said Aucas at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 8–84–8
34. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Aucas win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
35. 89′We said Aucas at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–91–4
36. FTFULL TIME Aucas 1–1 LDU de Quito
37. FTAucas 1–1 LDU de Quito · Aucas win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.