Aucas v Barcelona SC prediction · Liga Pro

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AucasDrawBarcelona SC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 21:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Aucas 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Aucas are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Aucas 41%, draw 29%, Barcelona SC 30%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Aucas v Barcelona SCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Aucas win41%

Draw29%

Barcelona SC win30%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 21:30

RoundChampionship Group · matchday 4

VenueEstadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aucas

Barcelona SC

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga Pro

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga Pro

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Aucas	33	+3	51
6	Barcelona SC	32	+6	45

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aucas winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

41% The market50%

Us41%

~~Market~~50%

We make Aucas a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Aucas v Barcelona SC~~1.30 – 1.07

~~Form · last six in Liga Pro this season · since 30 Aug~~W0 D4 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 51 v 45~~5 v 6

~~The market · Aucas win~~50% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Aucas win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aucas win	41%	50%	−9
Draw	29%	28%	+1
Barcelona SC win	30%	22%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	42%	43%	−1
Both teams to score	48%	48%	0
Over 1.5 goals	69%	68%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	22%	23%	−1
Aucas or draw	70%	78%	−8
Aucas clean sheet	34%	–	–
Barcelona SC clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 10.0 9.5 5.4 1 11.7 13.3 6.9 2.5 2 7.9 8.3 4.5 3 3.4 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aucas down, Barcelona SC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,543 Liga Pro matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Pro matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.9% of games this season, across 264 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aucas at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Barcelona SC away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Aucas, 1.07 for Barcelona SC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~AUC 1–1 BAR · BAR 3–0 AUC · BAR 1–1 AUC · AUC 2–0 BAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Pro this season · since 30 Aug

AUCAS

DDDLLD1–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–1

BARCELONA SC

LWDDLD0–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026 · Championship Group

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Independiente del Valle	32	+40	77
2	Macara	33	+11	60
3	LDU de Quito	33	+9	53
4	Universidad Catolica	33	+22	52
5	Aucas	33	+3	51
6	Barcelona SC	32	+6	45

The competition's standings before kick-off.

Aucas v Barcelona SC

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Rest & schedule

Aucas

Barcelona SC

The game in numbers

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Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · last six in Liga Pro this season · since 30 Aug

The table