Santo Domingo v 22 de Julio prediction · Liga Pro Serie B

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Santo DomingoDraw22 de Julio

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Santo Domingo 72%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Santo Domingo are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Santo Domingo 72%, draw 20%, 22 de Julio 9%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Santo Domingo v 22 de JulioBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Santo Domingo win72%

Draw20%

22 de Julio win9%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 18:00

RoundRelegation Group · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Santo Domingo

22 de Julio

4Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Liga Pro Serie B

Last match: 21 Oct · Liga Pro Serie B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Santo Domingo	22	+1	28
11	22 de Julio	22	−21	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · santo domingo winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

72% The market–

Us72%

We make Santo Domingo a 72% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–0.6, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Santo Domingo v 22 de Julio~~2.10 – 0.58

~~Form · last six in Liga Pro Serie B this season · since 17 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 28 v 15~~8 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Santo Domingo win	72%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
22 de Julio win	9%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	39%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Santo Domingo or draw	91%	–	–
Santo Domingo clean sheet	56%	–	–
22 de Julio clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 14.9%

0123450 7.9 3.5 1 13.9 9.0 2.4 2 14.9 8.5 2.5 3 10.3 5.9 4 5.5 3.2 5 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Santo Domingo down, 22 de Julio across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,097 Liga Pro Serie B matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Pro Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 35.1% of games this season, across 185 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2026 in every competition we cover, 1.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Santo Domingo at home: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). 22 de Julio away: 0.83 scored, 3.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.10 goals for Santo Domingo, 0.58 for 22 de Julio. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~DEJ 0–3 SAN · SAN 1–0 DEJ · DEJ 0–0 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Pro Serie B this season · since 17 Sept

SANTO DOMINGO

WLWDWD1–0 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–1

22 DE JULIO

LDLLLD1–7 · 2–2 · 2–4 · 2–5 · 1–7 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ind. Juniors	22	+12	39
2	Atletico FC	22	+11	38
3	9 de Octubre	22	+8	37
4	Deportivo Cuenca Juniors	22	−3	34
5	Cuniburo	22	+8	31
6	San Antonio	22	+3	31
7	Gualaceo SC	22	+3	29
8	Santo Domingo	22	+1	28
9	LDU Portoviejo	22	−5	27
10	Cumbayá	22	0	26
11	22 de Julio	22	−21	15
12	El Nacional	22	−17	12