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Model 1.2

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LDU Portoviejo v Gualaceo SC

LDU Portoviejo
0–0Full time
Gualaceo SC

Liga Pro Serie B · SAT 17 OCT · Estadio Reales Tamarindos

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 00:00
LDU Portoviejo 0–0 Gualaceo SC LDU PORTOVIEJO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said LDU Portoviejo win42%
The market said41%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.692
The market’s Brier score0.670

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 13 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said LDU Portoviejo win at 42%.
  2. 13′Little has changed for our model: LDU Portoviejo 42% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–35–25
  3. 30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was LDU Portoviejo win 36%)
  4. 42′A goal for LDU Portoviejo on 42′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 78–17–4
  5. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' LDU Portoviejo win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
  6. 42′⚽ GOAL · 42' LDU Portoviejo 1–0 Gualaceo SC
  7. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' LDU Portoviejo win: 42% at kick-off, 78% now
  8. 42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' LDU Portoviejo win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 17%)
  9. 43′We said LDU Portoviejo at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–17–4
  10. 44′GOAL DISALLOWED · 44' LDU Portoviejo
  11. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' LDU Portoviejo win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
  12. 44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was LDU Portoviejo win 32%)
  13. 45′HALF-TIME LDU Portoviejo 0–0 Gualaceo SC
  14. 46′SECOND HALF LDU Portoviejo 0–0 Gualaceo SC
  15. 49′We said LDU Portoviejo at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 0–0 · 30–50–20
  16. 50′We said LDU Portoviejo at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–51–20
  17. 61′We said LDU Portoviejo at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–59–17
  18. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' LDU Portoviejo win: 42% at kick-off, 22% now
  19. 69′We said LDU Portoviejo at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–67–14
  20. 76′We said LDU Portoviejo at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–76–10
  21. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' LDU Portoviejo win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
  22. 83′We said LDU Portoviejo at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 0–0 · 8–86–6
  23. 89′We said LDU Portoviejo at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
  24. 91′We said LDU Portoviejo at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 0–0 · 3–95–2
  25. FTFULL TIME LDU Portoviejo 0–0 Gualaceo SC
  26. FTLDU Portoviejo 0–0 Gualaceo SC · LDU Portoviejo win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

LDU Portoviejo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: LDU Portoviejo 42%, draw 33%, Gualaceo SC 26%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on LDU Portoviejo v Gualaceo SCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

LDU Portoviejo win42%
Draw33%
Gualaceo SC win26%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 21:30

RoundRelegation Group · matchday 8

VenueEstadio Reales Tamarindos

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

LDU Portoviejo

Gualaceo SC

9Days since last match7

Last match: 8 Oct · Liga Pro Serie B

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga Pro Serie B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7Gualaceo SC22+329
9LDU Portoviejo22−527

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ldu portoviejo winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 05:22 · locked at kick-off
42% The market41%
Us42%
Market41%

We make LDU Portoviejo a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.1–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · LDU Portoviejo v Gualaceo SC1.13 – 0.82
Form · last six in Liga Pro Serie B this season · since 29 AugW3 D3 L0 · W4 D2 L0
Table places · points 27 v 299 v 7
The market · LDU Portoviejo win41% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 11 OCT 04:0217 OCT 20:41
Our probability · LDU Portoviejo win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
LDU Portoviejo win42%41%+1
Draw33%34%−1
Gualaceo SC win26%26%0
Over 2.5 goals31%36%−5
Both teams to score38%44%−6
Over 1.5 goals58%61%−3
Over 3.5 goals13%19%−6
LDU Portoviejo or draw74%74%0
LDU Portoviejo clean sheet45%––
Gualaceo SC clean sheet33%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.6%
0123450 15.6 10.8 4.8 1 15.1 13.8 5.3 2 9.0 7.2 3.0 3 3.4 2.8 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+LDU Portoviejo down, Gualaceo SC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting1.43
Over 2.51 of 7
Both scored2 of 7
Last meetingsGUA 0–0 LDU · LDU 1–0 GUA · GUA 2–0 LDU · GUA 1–0 LDU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Pro Serie B this season · since 29 Aug

LDU PORTOVIEJO

WWDDWD2–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 2–2

GUALACEO SC

WWDWWD3–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 4–2 · 1–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Ind. Juniors22+1239
2Atletico FC22+1138
39 de Octubre22+837
4Deportivo Cuenca Juniors22−334
5Cuniburo22+831
6San Antonio22+331
7Gualaceo SC22+329
8Santo Domingo22+128
9LDU Portoviejo22−527
10Cumbayá22026
1122 de Julio22−2115
12El Nacional22−1712

The competition's standings before kick-off.