LDU Portoviejo v Cumbayá prediction · Liga Pro Serie B

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

LDU PortoviejoDrawCumbayá

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · LDU Portoviejo 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

LDU Portoviejo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: LDU Portoviejo 42%, draw 31%, Cumbayá 27%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on LDU Portoviejo v CumbayáBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

LDU Portoviejo win42%

Draw31%

Cumbayá win27%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 18:00

RoundRelegation Group · matchday 10

VenueEstadio Reales Tamarindos

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

LDU Portoviejo

Cumbayá

7Days since last match6

Last match: 21 Oct · Liga Pro Serie B

Last match: 22 Oct · Liga Pro Serie B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	LDU Portoviejo	22	−5	27
10	Cumbayá	22	0	26

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ldu portoviejo winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make LDU Portoviejo a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · LDU Portoviejo v Cumbayá~~1.20 – 0.89

~~Form · last six in Liga Pro Serie B this season · since 17 Sept~~W1 D5 L0 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 27 v 26~~9 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
LDU Portoviejo win	42%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Cumbayá win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
LDU Portoviejo or draw	73%	–	–
LDU Portoviejo clean sheet	41%	–	–
Cumbayá clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.9%

0123450 13.7 10.1 5.0 1 13.8 13.9 5.8 2 8.8 7.7 3.4 3 3.6 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+LDU Portoviejo down, Cumbayá across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,096 Liga Pro Serie B matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Pro Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 35.3% of games this season, across 184 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.57 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

LDU Portoviejo at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Cumbayá away: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for LDU Portoviejo, 0.89 for Cumbayá. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.57

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~5 of 7

~~Last meetings~~CUM 0–0 LDU · LDU 0–0 CUM · CUM 1–1 LDU · CUM 4–3 LDU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Pro Serie B this season · since 17 Sept

LDU PORTOVIEJO

DDWDDD0–0 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–1

CUMBAYÁ

WWLDWW7–1 · 3–0 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 7–1 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ind. Juniors	22	+12	39
2	Atletico FC	22	+11	38
3	9 de Octubre	22	+8	37
4	Deportivo Cuenca Juniors	22	−3	34
5	Cuniburo	22	+8	31
6	San Antonio	22	+3	31
7	Gualaceo SC	22	+3	29
8	Santo Domingo	22	+1	28
9	LDU Portoviejo	22	−5	27
10	Cumbayá	22	0	26
11	22 de Julio	22	−21	15
12	El Nacional	22	−17	12