Gualaceo SC v Santo Domingo prediction · Liga Pro Serie B

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Gualaceo SCDrawSanto Domingo

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 21:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Gualaceo SC 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gualaceo SC are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gualaceo SC 41%, draw 34%, Santo Domingo 26%. Over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Gualaceo SC v Santo DomingoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Gualaceo SC win41%

Draw34%

Santo Domingo win26%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 21:00

RoundRelegation Group · matchday 9

VenueEstadio Jorge Andrade

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gualaceo SC

Santo Domingo

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga Pro Serie B

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Gualaceo SC	22	+3	29
8	Santo Domingo	22	+1	28

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gualaceo sc winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Gualaceo SC a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.8, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gualaceo SC v Santo Domingo~~1.07 – 0.79

~~Form · last six in Liga Pro Serie B this season · since 10 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 29 v 28~~7 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gualaceo SC win	41%	–	–
Draw	34%	–	–
Santo Domingo win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	28%	–	–
Both teams to score	36%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	56%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	12%	–	–
Gualaceo SC or draw	74%	–	–
Gualaceo SC clean sheet	46%	–	–
Santo Domingo clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.9%

0123450 16.9 11.3 4.8 1 15.7 13.9 5.1 2 8.9 6.9 2.7 3 3.2 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gualaceo SC down, Santo Domingo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,096 Liga Pro Serie B matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Pro Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 35.3% of games this season, across 184 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2026 in every competition we cover, 1.33 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gualaceo SC at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Santo Domingo away: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.07 goals for Gualaceo SC, 0.79 for Santo Domingo. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.33

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~SAN 0–1 GUA · GUA 1–0 SAN · SAN 2–0 GUA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Pro Serie B this season · since 10 Sept

GUALACEO SC

WDWWDD1–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 0–0

SANTO DOMINGO

LWLWDW0–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ind. Juniors	22	+12	39
2	Atletico FC	22	+11	38
3	9 de Octubre	22	+8	37
4	Deportivo Cuenca Juniors	22	−3	34
5	Cuniburo	22	+8	31
6	San Antonio	22	+3	31
7	Gualaceo SC	22	+3	29
8	Santo Domingo	22	+1	28
9	LDU Portoviejo	22	−5	27
10	Cumbayá	22	0	26
11	22 de Julio	22	−21	15
12	El Nacional	22	−17	12