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Gualaceo SC v Cumbayá

Gualaceo SC

1–1Full time

Cumbayá

Liga Pro Serie B · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio Jorge Andrade

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 00:01

Gualaceo SC 1–1 Cumbayá GUALACEO SC WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gualaceo SC win~~47%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.762

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.756

Corrected on 16 Oct: this prediction was last updated after the match had started (it kicked off on 10 Oct 21:00), so it is shown but not counted in the record’s figures.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gualaceo SC win at 47%.
1′A goal for Gualaceo SC on 1′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–16–7
1′KICK-OFF Gualaceo SC v Cumbayá
1′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 1' Gualaceo SC win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Gualaceo SC win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Gualaceo SC win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Gualaceo SC win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Gualaceo SC win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Gualaceo SC 1–1 Cumbayá
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Gualaceo SC win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Gualaceo SC win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Gualaceo SC win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Gualaceo SC win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Gualaceo SC win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Gualaceo SC win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Gualaceo SC win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Gualaceo SC win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Gualaceo SC win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Gualaceo SC win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Gualaceo SC win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Gualaceo SC win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Gualaceo SC win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Gualaceo SC win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Gualaceo SC win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Gualaceo SC win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
43′26′ and it is 1–1: Cumbayá have scored. 1–1 · 37–43–20
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Gualaceo SC win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Gualaceo SC win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Gualaceo SC win 37%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Gualaceo SC win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Gualaceo SC win 37%)
45′HALF-TIME Gualaceo SC 1–1 Cumbayá
46′SECOND HALF Gualaceo SC 1–1 Cumbayá
74′⚽ GOAL · 20' Gualaceo SC 1–1 Cumbayá
74′⚽ GOAL · 26' Gualaceo SC 1–1 Cumbayá
FTGualaceo SC 1–1 Cumbayá · Gualaceo SC win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Gualaceo SC win47%

Draw30%

Cumbayá win23%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 21:30

Venue · Estadio Jorge Andrade

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gualaceo sc winPublished 10 Oct 21:03

47% The market47%

Us47%

~~Market~~47%

We make Gualaceo SC a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · gualaceo sc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gualaceo SC win	47%	47%	0
Draw	30%	30%	0
Cumbayá win	23%	23%	0
Over 2.5 goals	36%	38%	−2
Both teams to score	42%	44%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	64%	63%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	17%	20%	−3
Gualaceo SC or draw	77%	77%	0
Gualaceo SC clean sheet	44%	–	–
Cumbayá clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.5%

0123450 12.9 8.8 4.0 1 14.5 13.4 5.2 2 10.1 8.2 3.4 3 4.5 3.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gualaceo SC down, Cumbayá across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,084 Liga Pro Serie B matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Pro Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 34.9% of games this season, across 172 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 2.11 goals a meeting; 3 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gualaceo SC at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Cumbayá away: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Gualaceo SC, 0.82 for Cumbayá. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.11

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~CUM 0–1 GUA · GUA 1–0 CUM · CUM 1–1 GUA · GUA 2–0 CUM

Form · last six in Liga Pro Serie B

GUALACEO SC

WWWDWW3–0 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 4–2

CUMBAYÁ

DLLWWL0–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 7–1 · 3–0 · 0–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Atletico FC	29	+17	52
2	Ind. Juniors	29	+13	50
3	Cuniburo	29	+15	48
4	9 de Octubre	29	+10	45
5	Gualaceo SC	27	+10	42
6	Santo Domingo	29	+7	41
7	LDU Portoviejo	29	−1	40
8	Deportivo Cuenca Juniors	29	−9	39
9	Cumbayá	28	+4	33
10	San Antonio	29	−7	33
11	El Nacional	29	−21	18
12	22 de Julio	28	−38	16