El Nacional v Santo Domingo prediction · Liga Pro Serie B

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 20:08

El Nacional 1–2 Santo Domingo SANTO DOMINGO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Santo Domingo win~~36%

~~The market said~~29%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.623

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.772

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Santo Domingo win at 36%.
1′Much as we predicted: Santo Domingo was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 35% now. 0–0 · 33–32–35
1′KICK-OFF El Nacional v Santo Domingo
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Santo Domingo win 32%)
27′We published Santo Domingo at 36%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' El Nacional 0–1 Santo Domingo
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Santo Domingo win: 36% at kick-off, 70% now
27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Santo Domingo win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 21%)
28′Santo Domingo find the net on 27′. 0–1. 0–1 · 9–21–70
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 9–21–70
45′SECOND HALF El Nacional 0–1 Santo Domingo
46′HALF-TIME El Nacional 0–1 Santo Domingo
49′We published Santo Domingo at 36%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 5–20–75
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Santo Domingo win: 36% at kick-off, 76% now
58′We published Santo Domingo at 36%. Our model now makes it 96%. 0–2 · 0–3–96
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' El Nacional 0–2 Santo Domingo
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Santo Domingo win: 36% at kick-off, 96% now
59′A goal for Santo Domingo on 59′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–96
68′We published Santo Domingo at 36%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–2 · 2–16–82
68′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 2–16–82
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' El Nacional 1–2 Santo Domingo
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Santo Domingo win: 36% at kick-off, 82% now
69′El Nacional score on 68′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 2–15–83
72′We published Santo Domingo at 36%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 2–14–85
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Santo Domingo win: 36% at kick-off, 86% now
80′We published Santo Domingo at 36%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Santo Domingo win: 36% at kick-off, 96% now
95′Full time, 1–2. We called Santo Domingo at 36% — that one lands. 1–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME El Nacional 1–2 Santo Domingo
FTEl Nacional 1–2 Santo Domingo · Santo Domingo win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Santo Domingo just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: El Nacional 33%, draw 31%, Santo Domingo 36%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on El Nacional v Santo DomingoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

El Nacional win33%

Draw31%

Santo Domingo win36%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:30

RoundRelegation Group · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

El Nacional

Santo Domingo

10Days since last match9

Last match: 7 Oct · Liga Pro Serie B

Last match: 8 Oct · Liga Pro Serie B

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Santo Domingo	22	+1	28
12	El Nacional	22	−17	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · santo domingo winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

36% The market29%

Us36%

~~Market~~29%

We make Santo Domingo a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 29%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · El Nacional v Santo Domingo~~1.04 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in Liga Pro Serie B this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 28~~12 v 8

~~The market · Santo Domingo win~~29% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Santo Domingo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 29% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
El Nacional win	33%	42%	−9
Draw	31%	29%	+2
Santo Domingo win	36%	29%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	36%	45%	−9
Both teams to score	43%	51%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	64%	69%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	17%	26%	−9
El Nacional or draw	64%	71%	−7
El Nacional clean sheet	34%	–	–
Santo Domingo clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.1%

0123450 13.1 12.0 7.0 2.6 1 11.4 14.1 7.2 2.7 2 6.4 6.8 3.7 3 2.3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+El Nacional down, Santo Domingo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,088 Liga Pro Serie B matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Pro Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 34.7% of games this season, across 176 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2026 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

El Nacional at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Santo Domingo away: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.04 goals for El Nacional, 1.10 for Santo Domingo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~SAN 1–0 ELN · ELN 0–0 SAN · SAN 1–1 ELN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Pro Serie B this season · since 4 Sept

EL NACIONAL

LWLLLW0–2 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 2–3 · 5–2

SANTO DOMINGO

WLWLWD2–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ind. Juniors	22	+12	39
2	Atletico FC	22	+11	38
3	9 de Octubre	22	+8	37
4	Deportivo Cuenca Juniors	22	−3	34
5	Cuniburo	22	+8	31
6	San Antonio	22	+3	31
7	Gualaceo SC	22	+3	29
8	Santo Domingo	22	+1	28
9	LDU Portoviejo	22	−5	27
10	Cumbayá	22	0	26
11	22 de Julio	22	−21	15
12	El Nacional	22	−17	12