El Nacional v Gualaceo SC prediction · Liga Pro Serie B

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

El NacionalDrawGualaceo SC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:00

Before kick-off · Match result · El Nacional 35%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with El Nacional just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: El Nacional 35%, draw 31%, Gualaceo SC 34%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on El Nacional v Gualaceo SCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

El Nacional win35%

Draw31%

Gualaceo SC win34%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:00

RoundRelegation Group · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

El Nacional

Gualaceo SC

5Days since last match3

Last match: 22 Oct · Liga Pro Serie B

Last match: 24 Oct · Liga Pro Serie B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Gualaceo SC	22	+3	29
12	El Nacional	22	−17	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · el nacional winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

35% The market–

Us35%

We make El Nacional a 35% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · El Nacional v Gualaceo SC~~1.14 – 1.12

~~Form · last six in Liga Pro Serie B this season · since 18 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W2 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 12 v 29~~12 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
El Nacional win	35%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Gualaceo SC win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
El Nacional or draw	66%	–	–
El Nacional clean sheet	33%	–	–
Gualaceo SC clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.1%

0123450 11.7 10.7 6.5 2.5 1 10.9 14.1 7.3 2.8 2 6.8 7.4 4.2 3 2.6 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+El Nacional down, Gualaceo SC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,097 Liga Pro Serie B matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Pro Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 35.1% of games this season, across 185 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.11 goals a meeting; 4 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

El Nacional at home: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Gualaceo SC away: 1.00 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for El Nacional, 1.12 for Gualaceo SC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.11

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~GUA 3–0 ELN · ELN 0–0 GUA · GUA 2–0 ELN · ELN 4–2 GUA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Pro Serie B this season · since 18 Sept

EL NACIONAL

LLLWLL0–1 · 0–3 · 2–3 · 5–2 · 1–2 · 1–2

GUALACEO SC

DWWDDD0–0 · 1–0 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ind. Juniors	22	+12	39
2	Atletico FC	22	+11	38
3	9 de Octubre	22	+8	37
4	Deportivo Cuenca Juniors	22	−3	34
5	Cuniburo	22	+8	31
6	San Antonio	22	+3	31
7	Gualaceo SC	22	+3	29
8	Santo Domingo	22	+1	28
9	LDU Portoviejo	22	−5	27
10	Cumbayá	22	0	26
11	22 de Julio	22	−21	15
12	El Nacional	22	−17	12