Cuniburo v Ind. Juniors prediction · Liga Pro Serie B

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 22:00

Cuniburo 2–0 Ind. Juniors CUNIBURO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cuniburo win~~49%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.392

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.365

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cuniburo win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Cuniburo was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–29–22
1′KICK-OFF Cuniburo v Ind. Juniors
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Cuniburo win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Cuniburo win 40%)
45′We said Cuniburo at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 0–0 · 37–43–20
45′HALF-TIME Cuniburo 0–0 Ind. Juniors
46′SECOND HALF Cuniburo 0–0 Ind. Juniors
47′A goal for Cuniburo on 46′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 81–16–4
47′⚽ GOAL · 46' Cuniburo 1–0 Ind. Juniors
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Cuniburo win: 49% at kick-off, 81% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Cuniburo win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 44%)
48′We published Cuniburo at 49%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–16–4
49′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 81–15–3
64′We published Cuniburo at 49%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Cuniburo win: 49% at kick-off, 89% now
76′We published Cuniburo at 49%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
76′Cuniburo score on 76′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Cuniburo 2–0 Ind. Juniors
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Cuniburo win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
77′We published Cuniburo at 49%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
78′A red card for Ind. Juniors on 78′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–0 · 99–0–0
78′🟥 RED CARD · 78' Ind. Juniors
79′We published Cuniburo at 49%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Cuniburo 2–0 Ind. Juniors
FTCuniburo 2–0 Ind. Juniors · Cuniburo win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cuniburo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cuniburo 49%, draw 29%, Ind. Juniors 22%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Cuniburo v Ind. JuniorsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Cuniburo win49%

Draw29%

Ind. Juniors win22%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 19:30

RoundPromotion Group · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cuniburo

Ind. Juniors

5Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga Pro Serie B

Last match: 15 Oct · Liga Pro Serie B

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cuniburo winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

49% The market51%

Us49%

~~Market~~51%

We make Cuniburo a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cuniburo v Ind. Juniors~~1.42 – 0.86

~~Form · last six in Liga Pro Serie B this season · since 11 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 31 v 39~~5 v 1

~~The market · Cuniburo win~~51% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cuniburo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cuniburo win	49%	51%	−2
Draw	29%	27%	+2
Ind. Juniors win	22%	22%	0
Over 2.5 goals	40%	47%	−7
Both teams to score	44%	50%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	67%	69%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	20%	27%	−7
Cuniburo or draw	78%	78%	0
Cuniburo clean sheet	43%	–	–
Ind. Juniors clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.7%

0123450 11.5 8.0 3.8 1 13.7 13.2 5.3 2 10.2 8.6 3.7 3 4.9 4.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cuniburo down, Ind. Juniors across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,092 Liga Pro Serie B matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Pro Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 35.0% of games this season, across 180 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.30 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cuniburo at home: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Ind. Juniors away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Cuniburo, 0.86 for Ind. Juniors. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~IND 2–3 CUN · IND 2–0 CUN · CUN 2–2 IND · CUN 3–2 IND

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Pro Serie B this season · since 11 Sept

CUNIBURO

WWWDDL2–0 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1

IND. JUNIORS

LDLWWL1–3 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ind. Juniors	22	+12	39
2	Atletico FC	22	+11	38
3	9 de Octubre	22	+8	37
4	Deportivo Cuenca Juniors	22	−3	34
5	Cuniburo	22	+8	31
6	San Antonio	22	+3	31
7	Gualaceo SC	22	+3	29
8	Santo Domingo	22	+1	28
9	LDU Portoviejo	22	−5	27
10	Cumbayá	22	0	26
11	22 de Julio	22	−21	15
12	El Nacional	22	−17	12