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Cumbayá v El Nacional
Cumbayá
El NacionalLiga Pro Serie B · THU 22 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Cumbayá win at 61%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Cumbayá 61% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 61–23–16
- 1′KICK-OFF Cumbayá v El Nacional
- 19′We said Cumbayá at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–0 · 84–12–5
- 19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Cumbayá 1–0 El Nacional
- 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Cumbayá win: 61% at kick-off, 84% now
- 20′Cumbayá find the net on 20′. 1–0. 1–0 · 84–12–4
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 84–12–4
- 38′We said Cumbayá at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
- 38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Cumbayá 2–0 El Nacional
- 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Cumbayá win: 61% at kick-off, 96% now
- 39′A goal for Cumbayá on 39′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–1
- 45′SECOND HALF Cumbayá 2–0 El Nacional
- 47′HALF-TIME Cumbayá 2–0 El Nacional
- 56′We said Cumbayá at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
- 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Cumbayá 2–1 El Nacional
- 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Cumbayá win: 61% at kick-off, 85% now
- 57′El Nacional score on 57′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 85–13–2
- 58′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 86–12–2
- 75′We said Cumbayá at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
- 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Cumbayá win: 61% at kick-off, 91% now
- 86′🟥 RED CARD · 86' El Nacional
- 94′2–1 at the end. Our 61% on Cumbayá comes in. 2–1 · 100–0–0
- FTFULL TIME Cumbayá 2–1 El Nacional
- FTCumbayá 2–1 El Nacional · Cumbayá win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Cumbayá are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Cumbayá 61%, draw 23%, El Nacional 16%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 49%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off
Cumbayá win61%
El Nacional win16%Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 21:00
RoundRelegation Group · matchday 9
Match timeline
All events
CumbayáMIN
El NacionalEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Cumbayá
El Nacional
Last match: 15 Oct · Liga Pro Serie B
Last match: 17 Oct · Liga Pro Serie B
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Cumbayá a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.9–0.8.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 56%, 61% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cumbayá win | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | +2 |
| El Nacional win | 16% | 17% | −1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 59% | −8 |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 56% | −7 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 80% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 39% | −9 |
| Cumbayá or draw | 84% | 83% | +1 |
| Cumbayá clean sheet | 43% | – | – |
| El Nacional clean sheet | 16% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Liga Pro Serie B this season · since 10 Sept
CUMBAYÁ
EL NACIONAL
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ind. Juniors | 22 | +12 | 39 |
| 2 | Atletico FC | 22 | +11 | 38 |
| 3 | 9 de Octubre | 22 | +8 | 37 |
| 4 | Deportivo Cuenca Juniors | 22 | −3 | 34 |
| 5 | Cuniburo | 22 | +8 | 31 |
| 6 | San Antonio | 22 | +3 | 31 |
| 7 | Gualaceo SC | 22 | +3 | 29 |
| 8 | Santo Domingo | 22 | +1 | 28 |
| 9 | LDU Portoviejo | 22 | −5 | 27 |
| 10 | Cumbayá | 22 | 0 | 26 |
| 11 | 22 de Julio | 22 | −21 | 15 |
| 12 | El Nacional | 22 | −17 | 12 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Ind. Juniors
Atletico FC
9 de Octubre
Deportivo Cuenca Juniors
Cuniburo
San Antonio
Gualaceo SC
Santo Domingo
LDU Portoviejo
22 de Julio