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Home › Football › Liga Pro Serie B › Cumbayá v El Nacional

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Cumbayá v El Nacional

Cumbayá
2–1Full time
El Nacional

Liga Pro Serie B · THU 22 OCT

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 23:38
Cumbayá 2–1 El Nacional CUMBAYÁ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Cumbayá win61%
The market said62%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.231
The market’s Brier score0.216

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 12 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Cumbayá win at 61%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Cumbayá 61% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 61–23–16
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Cumbayá v El Nacional
  4. 19′We said Cumbayá at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–0 · 84–12–5
  5. 19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Cumbayá 1–0 El Nacional
  6. 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Cumbayá win: 61% at kick-off, 84% now
  7. 20′Cumbayá find the net on 20′. 1–0. 1–0 · 84–12–4
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 84–12–4
  9. 38′We said Cumbayá at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
  10. 38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Cumbayá 2–0 El Nacional
  11. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Cumbayá win: 61% at kick-off, 96% now
  12. 39′A goal for Cumbayá on 39′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–1
  13. 45′SECOND HALF Cumbayá 2–0 El Nacional
  14. 47′HALF-TIME Cumbayá 2–0 El Nacional
  15. 56′We said Cumbayá at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
  16. 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Cumbayá 2–1 El Nacional
  17. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Cumbayá win: 61% at kick-off, 85% now
  18. 57′El Nacional score on 57′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 85–13–2
  19. 58′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 86–12–2
  20. 75′We said Cumbayá at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
  21. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Cumbayá win: 61% at kick-off, 91% now
  22. 86′🟥 RED CARD · 86' El Nacional
  23. 94′2–1 at the end. Our 61% on Cumbayá comes in. 2–1 · 100–0–0
  24. FTFULL TIME Cumbayá 2–1 El Nacional
  25. FTCumbayá 2–1 El Nacional · Cumbayá win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cumbayá are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cumbayá 61%, draw 23%, El Nacional 16%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Cumbayá v El NacionalBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Cumbayá win61%
Draw23%
El Nacional win16%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 21:00

RoundRelegation Group · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cumbayá

El Nacional

7Days since last match5

Last match: 15 Oct · Liga Pro Serie B

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga Pro Serie B

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
10Cumbayá22026
12El Nacional22−1712

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cumbayá winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 18 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off
61% The market62%
Us61%
Market62%

We make Cumbayá a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.9–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Cumbayá v El Nacional1.90 – 0.85
Form · last six in Liga Pro Serie B this season · since 10 SeptW3 D1 L2 · W2 D0 L4
Table places · points 26 v 1210 v 12
The market · Cumbayá win62% · ours 61%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65%70% 15 OCT 04:3322 OCT 20:36
Our probability · Cumbayá win The market, margin stripped

Published at 56%, 61% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Cumbayá win61%62%−1
Draw23%21%+2
El Nacional win16%17%−1
Over 2.5 goals51%59%−8
Both teams to score49%56%−7
Over 1.5 goals76%80%−4
Over 3.5 goals30%39%−9
Cumbayá or draw84%83%+1
Cumbayá clean sheet43%––
El Nacional clean sheet16%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.6%
0123450 7.5 4.9 2.4 1 11.6 10.9 4.3 2 11.4 9.5 4.0 3 7.2 6.0 2.5 4 3.5 2.9 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Cumbayá down, El Nacional across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.20
Over 2.55 of 10
Both scored5 of 10
Last meetingsELN 0–3 CUM · ELN 0–1 CUM · CUM 2–1 ELN · ELN 2–1 CUM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Pro Serie B this season · since 10 Sept

CUMBAYÁ

LWWLDW0–1 · 7–1 · 3–0 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 7–1

EL NACIONAL

WLLLWL3–0 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 2–3 · 5–2 · 1–2

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Ind. Juniors22+1239
2Atletico FC22+1138
39 de Octubre22+837
4Deportivo Cuenca Juniors22−334
5Cuniburo22+831
6San Antonio22+331
7Gualaceo SC22+329
8Santo Domingo22+128
9LDU Portoviejo22−527
10Cumbayá22026
1122 de Julio22−2115
12El Nacional22−1712

The competition's standings before kick-off.