Cumbayá v 22 de Julio prediction · Liga Pro Serie B

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 00:00

Cumbayá 7–1 22 de Julio CUMBAYÁ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cumbayá win~~66%

~~The market said~~84%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.177

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.041

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cumbayá win at 66%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Cumbayá 66% before kick-off, 67% now. 0–0 · 67–21–12
1′KICK-OFF Cumbayá v 22 de Julio
5′We said Cumbayá at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 1–0 · 87–9–3
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Cumbayá 1–0 22 de Julio
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Cumbayá win: 66% at kick-off, 87% now
6′Cumbayá score on 6′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 87–9–3
8′We said Cumbayá at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–1
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Cumbayá 2–0 22 de Julio
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Cumbayá win: 66% at kick-off, 97% now
9′Cumbayá find the net on 8′. 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–1
41′We said Cumbayá at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Cumbayá 3–0 22 de Julio
42′A goal for Cumbayá on 42′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
43′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Cumbayá 4–0 22 de Julio
44′Cumbayá score on 43′ to make it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
44′5 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 5–0 · 100–0–0
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Cumbayá 5–0 22 de Julio
45′Cumbayá find the net on 45′. 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
45′SECOND HALF Cumbayá 5–0 22 de Julio
46′HALF-TIME Cumbayá 5–0 22 de Julio
59′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 6–0 · 100–0–0
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Cumbayá 6–0 22 de Julio
60′A goal for Cumbayá on 59′ — 6–0. 6–0 · 100–0–0
69′PENALTY MISSED · 69' Cumbayá
80′🟥 RED CARD · 80' Cumbayá
81′Cumbayá are down to ten from 81′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 6–0 · 100–0–0
87′7 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 7–0 · 100–0–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Cumbayá 7–0 22 de Julio
88′Cumbayá score on 87′ to make it 7–0. 7–0 · 100–0–0
89′That is 8, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 7–1 · 100–0–0
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Cumbayá 7–1 22 de Julio
90′22 de Julio find the net on 89′. 7–1. 7–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Cumbayá 7–1 22 de Julio
FTCumbayá 7–1 22 de Julio · Cumbayá win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cumbayá are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cumbayá 66%, draw 22%, 22 de Julio 12%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Cumbayá v 22 de JulioBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Cumbayá win66%

Draw22%

22 de Julio win12%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 21:00

RoundRelegation Group · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cumbayá

22 de Julio

5Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga Pro Serie B

Last match: 7 Oct · Liga Pro Serie B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Cumbayá	22	0	26
11	22 de Julio	22	−21	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cumbayá winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

66% The market84%

Us66%

~~Market~~84%

We make Cumbayá a 66% chance to win. The market has them at 84%. We are 18 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cumbayá v 22 de Julio~~1.97 – 0.71

~~Form · last six in Liga Pro Serie B this season · since 27 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 26 v 15~~10 v 11

~~The market · Cumbayá win~~84% · ours 66%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cumbayá win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 84% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cumbayá win	66%	84%	−18
Draw	22%	10%	+12
22 de Julio win	12%	6%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	50%	82%	−32
Both teams to score	44%	57%	−13
Over 1.5 goals	75%	92%	−17
Over 3.5 goals	28%	67%	−39
Cumbayá or draw	88%	94%	−6
Cumbayá clean sheet	50%	–	–
22 de Julio clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 13.2%

0123450 7.9 4.3 1 12.9 10.2 3.4 2 13.2 9.2 3.3 3 8.6 6.0 2.1 4 4.3 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cumbayá down, 22 de Julio across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,085 Liga Pro Serie B matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Pro Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 34.7% of games this season, across 173 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2025 in every competition we cover, 3.71 goals a meeting; 5 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cumbayá at home: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). 22 de Julio away: 0.67 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.97 goals for Cumbayá, 0.71 for 22 de Julio. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.71

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~DEJ 1–7 CUM · CUM 4–0 DEJ · DEJ 2–1 CUM · DEJ 1–3 CUM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Pro Serie B this season · since 27 Aug

CUMBAYÁ

LLWWLD1–2 · 0–1 · 7–1 · 3–0 · 0–3 · 1–1

22 DE JULIO

LLLDLL0–3 · 0–3 · 1–7 · 2–2 · 2–4 · 2–5

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ind. Juniors	22	+12	39
2	Atletico FC	22	+11	38
3	9 de Octubre	22	+8	37
4	Deportivo Cuenca Juniors	22	−3	34
5	Cuniburo	22	+8	31
6	San Antonio	22	+3	31
7	Gualaceo SC	22	+3	29
8	Santo Domingo	22	+1	28
9	LDU Portoviejo	22	−5	27
10	Cumbayá	22	0	26
11	22 de Julio	22	−21	15
12	El Nacional	22	−17	12