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Atletico FC v Ind. Juniors

Atletico FC
1–0Full time
Ind. Juniors

Liga Pro Serie B · THU 15 OCT

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 22:30
Atletico FC 1–0 Ind. Juniors ATLETICO FC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Atletico FC win46%
The market said43%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.447
The market’s Brier score0.486

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 11 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Atletico FC win at 46%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Atletico FC 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–29–24
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Atletico FC v Ind. Juniors
  4. 39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Atletico FC win 37%)
  5. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Atletico FC win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
  6. 45′HALF-TIME Atletico FC 0–0 Ind. Juniors
  7. 46′We said Atletico FC at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–46–20
  8. 46′SECOND HALF Atletico FC 0–0 Ind. Juniors
  9. 57′We said Atletico FC at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–53–17
  10. 58′Atletico FC score on 58′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 83–15–2
  11. 58′We said Atletico FC at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 1–0 · 83–15–2
  12. 58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Atletico FC 1–0 Ind. Juniors
  13. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Atletico FC win: 46% at kick-off, 83% now
  14. 58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Atletico FC win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 15%)
  15. 59′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 83–15–2
  16. 64′We said Atletico FC at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
  17. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Atletico FC win: 46% at kick-off, 86% now
  18. 75′We said Atletico FC at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
  19. 84′We said Atletico FC at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  20. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Atletico FC win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
  21. FTFULL TIME Atletico FC 1–0 Ind. Juniors
  22. FTAtletico FC 1–0 Ind. Juniors · Atletico FC win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atletico FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atletico FC 46%, draw 31%, Ind. Juniors 23%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Atletico FC v Ind. JuniorsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Atletico FC win46%
Draw31%
Ind. Juniors win23%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 20:00

RoundPromotion Group · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atletico FC

Ind. Juniors

7Days since last match7

Last match: 8 Oct · Liga Pro Serie B

Last match: 8 Oct · Liga Pro Serie B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Ind. Juniors22+1239
2Atletico FC22+1138

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atletico fc winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off
46% The market43%
Us46%
Market43%

We make Atletico FC a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Atletico FC v Ind. Juniors1.26 – 0.82
Form · last six in Liga Pro Serie B this season · since 4 SeptW4 D2 L0 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 38 v 392 v 1
The market · Atletico FC win43% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 9 OCT 07:1915 OCT 19:47
Our probability · Atletico FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Atletico FC win46%43%+3
Draw31%31%0
Ind. Juniors win23%25%−2
Over 2.5 goals34%39%−5
Both teams to score40%46%−6
Over 1.5 goals62%64%−2
Over 3.5 goals16%21%−5
Atletico FC or draw77%75%+2
Atletico FC clean sheet44%––
Ind. Juniors clean sheet29%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.8%
0123450 13.8 9.3 4.2 1 14.8 13.6 5.2 2 9.9 7.9 3.3 3 4.2 3.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Atletico FC down, Ind. Juniors across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026
Goals a meeting1.33
Over 2.50 of 3
Both scored2 of 3
Last meetingsIND 1–1 ATL · IND 0–0 ATL · ATL 1–1 IND

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Pro Serie B this season · since 4 Sept

ATLETICO FC

DWDWWW2–2 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–1

IND. JUNIORS

WLDLWW1–0 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Ind. Juniors22+1239
2Atletico FC22+1138
39 de Octubre22+837
4Deportivo Cuenca Juniors22−334
5Cuniburo22+831
6San Antonio22+331
7Gualaceo SC22+329
8Santo Domingo22+128
9LDU Portoviejo22−527
10Cumbayá22026
1122 de Julio22−2115
12El Nacional22−1712

The competition's standings before kick-off.