9 de Octubre v Deportivo Cuenca Juniors prediction · Liga Pro Serie B

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

9 de OctubreDrawDeportivo Cuenca Juniors

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:00

Before kick-off · Match result · 9 de Octubre 55%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

9 de Octubre are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: 9 de Octubre 55%, draw 29%, Deportivo Cuenca Juniors 16%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on 9 de Octubre v Deportivo Cuenca JuniorsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

9 de Octubre win55%

Draw29%

Deportivo Cuenca Juniors win16%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 19:00

RoundPromotion Group · matchday 10

VenueEstadio Modelo Alberto Spencer

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

9 de Octubre

Deportivo Cuenca Juniors

6Days since last match6

Last match: 22 Oct · Liga Pro Serie B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	9 de Octubre	22	+8	37
4	Deportivo Cuenca Juniors	22	−3	34

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · 9 de octubre winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 23 Oct 00:09 · locked at kick-off

55% The market–

Us55%

We make 9 de Octubre a 55% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.6, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · 9 de Octubre v Deportivo Cuenca Juniors~~1.42 – 0.65

~~Form · last six in Liga Pro Serie B this season · since 16 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 37 v 34~~3 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · 9 de Octubre win

Published at 54%, 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
9 de Octubre win	55%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Deportivo Cuenca Juniors win	16%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	34%	–	–
Both teams to score	37%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
9 de Octubre or draw	84%	–	–
9 de Octubre clean sheet	53%	–	–
Deportivo Cuenca Juniors clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.1%

0123450 13.8 7.4 2.7 1 17.1 12.3 3.7 2 12.6 8.1 2.6 3 6.0 3.9 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+9 de Octubre down, Deportivo Cuenca Juniors across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,096 Liga Pro Serie B matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Pro Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 35.3% of games this season, across 184 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2026 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

9 de Octubre at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo Cuenca Juniors away: 0.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for 9 de Octubre, 0.65 for Deportivo Cuenca Juniors. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~DEP 1–1 DEO · DEO 3–3 DEP · DEP 0–0 DEO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Pro Serie B this season · since 16 Sept

9 DE OCTUBRE

LWLLWD0–1 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 3–3

DEPORTIVO CUENCA JUNIORS

WLLDLD1–0 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ind. Juniors	22	+12	39
2	Atletico FC	22	+11	38
3	9 de Octubre	22	+8	37
4	Deportivo Cuenca Juniors	22	−3	34
5	Cuniburo	22	+8	31
6	San Antonio	22	+3	31
7	Gualaceo SC	22	+3	29
8	Santo Domingo	22	+1	28
9	LDU Portoviejo	22	−5	27
10	Cumbayá	22	0	26
11	22 de Julio	22	−21	15
12	El Nacional	22	−17	12