9 de Octubre v Cuniburo prediction · Liga Pro Serie B

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:01

9 de Octubre 1–0 Cuniburo 9 DE OCTUBRE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said 9 de Octubre win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.532

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said 9 de Octubre win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: 9 de Octubre was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–32–28
1′KICK-OFF 9 de Octubre v Cuniburo
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was 9 de Octubre win 35%)
45′HALF-TIME 9 de Octubre 1–0 Cuniburo
46′SECOND HALF 9 de Octubre 1–0 Cuniburo
47′9 de Octubre find the net on 45′. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–18–4
47′⚽ GOAL · 45' 9 de Octubre 1–0 Cuniburo
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+2' 9 de Octubre win: 40% at kick-off, 78% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+2' 9 de Octubre win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 18%)
48′We published 9 de Octubre at 40%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–18–4
49′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 78–18–4
55′We published 9 de Octubre at 40%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' 9 de Octubre win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
68′We published 9 de Octubre at 40%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
77′We published 9 de Octubre at 40%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' 9 de Octubre win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
84′We published 9 de Octubre at 40%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME 9 de Octubre 1–0 Cuniburo
FT9 de Octubre 1–0 Cuniburo · 9 de Octubre win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

9 de Octubre are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: 9 de Octubre 40%, draw 32%, Cuniburo 28%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on 9 de Octubre v CuniburoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

9 de Octubre win40%

Draw32%

Cuniburo win28%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:00

RoundPromotion Group · matchday 8

VenueEstadio Modelo Alberto Spencer

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

9 de Octubre

Cuniburo

9Days since last match10

Last match: 8 Oct · Liga Pro Serie B

Last match: 7 Oct · Liga Pro Serie B

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	9 de Octubre	22	+8	37
5	Cuniburo	22	+8	31

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · 9 de octubre winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make 9 de Octubre a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · 9 de Octubre v Cuniburo~~1.16 – 0.91

~~Form · last six in Liga Pro Serie B this season · since 3 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 37 v 31~~3 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
9 de Octubre win	40%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Cuniburo win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	34%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
9 de Octubre or draw	72%	–	–
9 de Octubre clean sheet	41%	–	–
Cuniburo clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.0%

0123450 13.9 10.6 5.2 1 13.7 14.0 5.9 2 8.5 7.5 3.4 3 3.3 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+9 de Octubre down, Cuniburo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,088 Liga Pro Serie B matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Pro Serie B matches have gone over 2.5 in 34.7% of games this season, across 176 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.10 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

9 de Octubre at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Cuniburo away: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for 9 de Octubre, 0.91 for Cuniburo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CUN 1–0 DEO · DEO 2–1 CUN · CUN 0–1 DEO · CUN 5–2 DEO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Pro Serie B this season · since 3 Sept

9 DE OCTUBRE

DWLWLL2–2 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 0–1

CUNIBURO

WWWWDD4–2 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ind. Juniors	22	+12	39
2	Atletico FC	22	+11	38
3	9 de Octubre	22	+8	37
4	Deportivo Cuenca Juniors	22	−3	34
5	Cuniburo	22	+8	31
6	San Antonio	22	+3	31
7	Gualaceo SC	22	+3	29
8	Santo Domingo	22	+1	28
9	LDU Portoviejo	22	−5	27
10	Cumbayá	22	0	26
11	22 de Julio	22	−21	15
12	El Nacional	22	−17	12