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Model 1.2

Home › Football › Copa Ecuador › Universidad Catolica v LDU de Quito

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Universidad Catolica v LDU de Quito

Universidad Catolica
00:00Upcoming
LDU de Quito

Copa Ecuador · FRI 30 OCT

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Universidad CatolicaDrawLDU de Quito
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 00:00
Before kick-off · Match result · Universidad Catolica 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Universidad Catolica are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Universidad Catolica 45%, draw 27%, LDU de Quito 28%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Universidad Catolica v LDU de QuitoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Universidad Catolica win45%
Draw27%
LDU de Quito win28%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 00:00

RoundSemi-finals

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Universidad Catolica

LDU de Quito

7Days since last match6

Last match: 23 Oct · Liga Pro

Last match: 24 Oct · Liga Pro

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · universidad catolica winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off
45% The market–
Us45%

We make Universidad Catolica a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Universidad Catolica v LDU de Quito1.48 – 1.11
Form · Copa Ecuador this season · since 28 MayW3 D0 L0 · W2 D1 L0

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 24 OCT 00:0225 OCT 07:47
Our probability · Universidad Catolica win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Universidad Catolica win45%––
Draw27%––
LDU de Quito win28%––
Over 2.5 goals48%––
Both teams to score52%––
Over 1.5 goals73%––
Over 3.5 goals26%––
Universidad Catolica or draw72%––
Universidad Catolica clean sheet33%––
LDU de Quito clean sheet23%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%
0123450 8.1 7.9 4.6 1 10.7 12.7 6.8 2.5 2 8.2 9.0 5.0 3 4.1 4.4 2.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Universidad Catolica down, LDU de Quito across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting3.60
Over 2.57 of 10
Both scored8 of 10
Last meetingsLDU 2–1 UNI · UNI 1–0 LDU · LDU 1–1 UNI · LDU 2–0 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Copa Ecuador this season · since 28 May

UNIVERSIDAD CATOLICA

WWW4–1 · 3–2 · 1–0

LDU DE QUITO

DWW1–1 · 6–0 · 1–0