Vega Real v Salcedo prediction · Liga Mayor

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 23:31

Vega Real 0–1 Salcedo SALCEDO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Salcedo win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.448

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 36 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Salcedo win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Salcedo was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 28–26–46
1′KICK-OFF Vega Real v Salcedo
30′Much as we predicted: Salcedo was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 26–34–40
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Vega Real 0–1 Salcedo
42′J. Baez scores for Salcedo on 36′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 6–18–76
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Salcedo win: 45% at kick-off, 76% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Salcedo win: 45% at kick-off, 40% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Salcedo win: 45% at kick-off, 76% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Salcedo win: 45% at kick-off, 40% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Salcedo win: 45% at kick-off, 76% now
45′We published Salcedo at 45%. Our model now makes it 76%. 0–1 · 6–18–76
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Salcedo win: 45% at kick-off, 76% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Salcedo win: 45% at kick-off, 40% now
45′HALF-TIME Vega Real 0–1 Salcedo
45′⚽ GOAL · 36' Vega Real 0–1 Salcedo · J. Baez
46′SECOND HALF Vega Real 0–1 Salcedo
47′We published Salcedo at 45%. Our model now makes it 77%. 0–1 · 5–18–77
48′We published Salcedo at 45%. Our model now makes it 77%. 0–1 · 5–18–77
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Salcedo win: 45% at kick-off, 77% now
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Salcedo win: 45% at kick-off, 77% now
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Salcedo win: 45% at kick-off, 77% now
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Salcedo win: 45% at kick-off, 77% now
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Salcedo win: 45% at kick-off, 77% now
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Salcedo win: 45% at kick-off, 77% now
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Salcedo win: 45% at kick-off, 77% now
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Salcedo win: 45% at kick-off, 77% now
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Salcedo win: 45% at kick-off, 77% now
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Salcedo win: 45% at kick-off, 77% now
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Salcedo win: 45% at kick-off, 77% now
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Salcedo win: 45% at kick-off, 77% now
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Salcedo win: 45% at kick-off, 77% now
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Salcedo win: 45% at kick-off, 77% now
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Salcedo win: 45% at kick-off, 77% now
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Salcedo win: 45% at kick-off, 77% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Salcedo win: 45% at kick-off, 77% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Salcedo win: 45% at kick-off, 77% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Salcedo win: 45% at kick-off, 77% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Salcedo win: 45% at kick-off, 77% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Salcedo win: 45% at kick-off, 77% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Salcedo win: 45% at kick-off, 77% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Salcedo win: 45% at kick-off, 77% now
FTFULL TIME Vega Real 0–1 Salcedo
FTVega Real 0–1 Salcedo · Salcedo win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Vega Real win28%

Draw27%

Salcedo win45%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 21:00

VenueEstadio El Condor

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Vega Real

Salcedo

8Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salcedo	9	+14	23
3	Vega Real	9	+6	16

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · salcedo winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Salcedo a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vega Real win	28%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Salcedo win	45%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Vega Real or draw	55%	–	–
Vega Real clean sheet	24%	–	–
Salcedo clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 8.7 11.3 8.4 4.1 1 8.3 12.5 8.7 4.3 2 4.7 6.5 4.7 2.3 3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vega Real down, Salcedo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 619 Liga Mayor matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Mayor matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.4% of games this season, across 38 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vega Real at home: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Salcedo away: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.07 goals for Vega Real, 1.46 for Salcedo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~SAL 3–1 VEG · VEG 4–3 SAL · SAL 1–0 VEG

Form · last six in Liga Mayor

VEGA REAL

LWLWWW1–2 · 5–0 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 1–0

SALCEDO

WWDWWW6–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salcedo	9	+14	23
2	Cibao	9	+8	17
3	Vega Real	9	+6	16
4	Delfines Del Este	10	+2	15
5	Universidad O&M	10	+3	14
6	Moca	10	0	13
7	Jarabacoa	10	−13	5
8	Atlántico	9	−20	2