Universidad O&M v Delfines Del Este prediction · Liga Mayor

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 23:30

Universidad O&M 0–0 Delfines Del Este DELFINES DEL ESTE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Delfines Del Este win~~39%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.790

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.774

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Delfines Del Este win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Delfines Del Este was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 33–28–39
1′KICK-OFF Universidad O&M v Delfines Del Este
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Delfines Del Este win 33%)
45′HALF-TIME Universidad O&M 0–0 Delfines Del Este
46′SECOND HALF Universidad O&M 0–0 Delfines Del Este
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Delfines Del Este win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
55′We expected about 2.5 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 24–48–28
57′We said Delfines Del Este at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 24–49–27
63′We said Delfines Del Este at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 21–54–24
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Delfines Del Este win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
72′We said Delfines Del Este at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 17–65–19
78′We said Delfines Del Este at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 12–74–14
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Delfines Del Este win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
84′We said Delfines Del Este at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 0–0 · 7–85–8
90′We said Delfines Del Este at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
FTFULL TIME Universidad O&M 0–0 Delfines Del Este
FTUniversidad O&M 0–0 Delfines Del Este · Delfines Del Este win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Delfines Del Este are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Universidad O&M 33%, draw 28%, Delfines Del Este 39%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Universidad O&M v Delfines Del EsteBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Universidad O&M win33%

Draw28%

Delfines Del Este win39%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 21:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Universidad O&M

Delfines Del Este

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga Mayor

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Delfines Del Este	10	+2	15
5	Universidad O&M	10	+3	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · delfines del este winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 20:37 · locked at kick-off

39% The market40%

Us39%

~~Market~~40%

We make Delfines Del Este a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Universidad O&M v Delfines Del Este~~1.17 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in Liga Mayor this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 15~~5 v 4

~~The market · Delfines Del Este win~~40% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Delfines Del Este win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Universidad O&M win	33%	32%	+1
Draw	28%	28%	0
Delfines Del Este win	39%	40%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	45%	46%	−1
Both teams to score	50%	52%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	71%	70%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	24%	26%	−2
Universidad O&M or draw	61%	60%	+1
Universidad O&M clean sheet	28%	–	–
Delfines Del Este clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 9.0 10.7 7.2 3.2 1 9.6 12.8 8.1 3.6 2 5.8 7.3 4.7 2.1 3 2.3 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Universidad O&M down, Delfines Del Este across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 624 Liga Mayor matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Mayor matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.5% of games this season, across 43 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Universidad O&M at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Delfines Del Este away: 0.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Universidad O&M, 1.31 for Delfines Del Este. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DEL 0–1 UNI · DEL 2–2 UNI · UNI 2–3 DEL · DEL 0–0 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Mayor this season · since 12 Sept

UNIVERSIDAD O&M

WDWLLW4–0 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–1

DELFINES DEL ESTE

WDWLLD1–0 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salcedo	10	+15	26
2	Cibao	11	+15	21
3	Vega Real	11	+5	17
4	Delfines Del Este	10	+2	15
5	Universidad O&M	10	+3	12
6	Moca	10	0	11
7	Jarabacoa	10	−13	2
8	Atlántico	10	−27	0