Salcedo v Atlántico prediction · Liga Mayor

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 00:00

Salcedo 2–1 Atlántico SALCEDO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Salcedo win~~79%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.069

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Salcedo are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Salcedo 79%, draw 13%, Atlántico 8%. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Salcedo v AtlánticoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Salcedo win79%

Draw13%

Atlántico win8%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 21:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Salcedo

Atlántico

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga Mayor

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · salcedo winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:01 · locked at kick-off

79% The market–

Us79%

We make Salcedo a 79% chance to win. The model expects 3.0–0.9, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Salcedo v Atlántico~~3.03 – 0.86

~~Form · last six in Liga Mayor this season · since 12 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 26 v 0~~1 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Salcedo win

Published at 75%, 79% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Salcedo win	79%	–	–
Draw	13%	–	–
Atlántico win	8%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	73%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	53%	–	–
Salcedo or draw	92%	–	–
Salcedo clean sheet	43%	–	–
Atlántico clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.3%

0123450 2.6 1 6.5 5.8 2.5 2 9.3 7.9 3.4 3 8.9 7.5 3.3 4 6.7 5.6 2.4 5 4.2 3.5

under 2% 5% 12%+Salcedo down, Atlántico across0–5 goals a side shown (89.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 622 Liga Mayor matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Mayor matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.3% of games this season, across 41 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 4.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Salcedo at home: 1.67 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Atlántico away: 0.67 scored, 3.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.03 goals for Salcedo, 0.86 for Atlántico. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~4.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ATL 1–6 SAL · ATL 1–3 SAL · SAL 2–1 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Mayor this season · since 12 Sept

SALCEDO

WDWWWW2–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

ATLÁNTICO

LLLLDL0–5 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 0–7

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salcedo	10	+15	26
2	Cibao	11	+15	21
3	Vega Real	11	+5	17
4	Delfines Del Este	10	+2	15
5	Universidad O&M	10	+3	12
6	Moca	10	0	11
7	Jarabacoa	10	−13	2
8	Atlántico	10	−27	0