Moca v Jarabacoa prediction · Liga Mayor

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Moca 1–0 Jarabacoa MOCA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Moca win~~52%

~~The market said~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.348

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.158

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Moca win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Moca 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–29–19
1′KICK-OFF Moca v Jarabacoa
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Moca win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
44′We said Moca at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–44–17
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Moca win 39%)
45′HALF-TIME Moca 0–0 Jarabacoa
46′SECOND HALF Moca 0–0 Jarabacoa
56′We said Moca at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–52–15
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Moca win: 52% at kick-off, 32% now
62′We said Moca at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–57–14
69′We said Moca at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–65–11
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Moca win: 52% at kick-off, 22% now
75′We said Moca at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 18–72–9
79′We said Moca at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–79–7
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Moca win: 52% at kick-off, 12% now
85′We said Moca at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 0–0 · 8–88–4
90′We said Moca at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–2
90′Moca find the net on 90′. 1–0. 1–0 · 98–2–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Moca 1–0 Jarabacoa
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Moca win: 52% at kick-off, 98% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Moca win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 2%)
FTFULL TIME Moca 1–0 Jarabacoa
FTMoca 1–0 Jarabacoa · Moca win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Moca are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Moca 52%, draw 28%, Jarabacoa 19%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Moca v JarabacoaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Moca win52%

Draw28%

Jarabacoa win19%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 23:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Moca

Jarabacoa

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga Mayor

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Moca	10	0	11
7	Jarabacoa	10	−13	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · moca winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

52% The market68%

Us52%

~~Market~~68%

We make Moca a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are 16 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Moca v Jarabacoa~~1.38 – 0.72

~~Form · last six in Liga Mayor this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 11 v 2~~6 v 7

~~The market · Moca win~~68% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Moca win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 68% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Moca win	52%	68%	−16
Draw	28%	21%	+7
Jarabacoa win	19%	11%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	35%	51%	−16
Both teams to score	38%	42%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	62%	74%	−12
Over 3.5 goals	17%	31%	−14
Moca or draw	81%	89%	−8
Moca clean sheet	49%	–	–
Jarabacoa clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.5%

0123450 13.0 8.5 3.2 1 16.5 12.1 4.3 2 11.5 8.1 3.0 3 5.4 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Moca down, Jarabacoa across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 622 Liga Mayor matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Mayor matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.3% of games this season, across 41 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.90 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Moca at home: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Jarabacoa away: 0.67 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Moca, 0.72 for Jarabacoa. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~JAR 0–1 MOC · JAR 1–1 MOC · MOC 0–1 JAR · JAR 0–1 MOC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Mayor this season · since 12 Sept

MOCA

WWDLLL2–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–2

JARABACOA

LLLLDD0–4 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salcedo	10	+15	26
2	Cibao	11	+15	21
3	Vega Real	11	+5	17
4	Delfines Del Este	10	+2	15
5	Universidad O&M	10	+3	12
6	Moca	10	0	11
7	Jarabacoa	10	−13	2
8	Atlántico	10	−27	0