Moca v Atlántico prediction · Liga Mayor

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

MocaDrawAtlántico

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 22:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Moca 59%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Moca are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Moca 59%, draw 23%, Atlántico 18%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Moca v AtlánticoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Moca win59%

Draw23%

Atlántico win18%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 22:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Moca

Atlántico

14Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga Mayor

Last match: 24 Oct · Liga Mayor

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Moca	11	+1	14
8	Atlántico	12	−27	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · moca winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Moca a 59% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Moca v Atlántico~~1.86 – 0.92

~~Form · last six in Liga Mayor this season · since 19 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 14 v 3~~5 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Moca win	59%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Atlántico win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Moca or draw	82%	–	–
Moca clean sheet	40%	–	–
Atlántico clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.3%

0123450 6.9 5.5 2.7 1 11.3 10.8 4.8 2 10.6 9.5 4.4 3 6.6 5.9 2.7 4 3.1 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Moca down, Atlántico across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 627 Liga Mayor matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Mayor matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.8% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Moca at home: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Atlántico away: 0.50 scored, 3.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.86 goals for Moca, 0.92 for Atlántico. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ATL 2–3 MOC · MOC 1–0 ATL · ATL 3–1 MOC · MOC 3–1 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Mayor this season · since 19 Sept

MOCA

WDLLLW3–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–0

ATLÁNTICO

LLDLLW1–3 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 0–7 · 1–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salcedo	11	+16	29
2	Cibao	11	+15	21
3	Vega Real	12	+4	17
4	Delfines Del Este	11	+2	16
5	Moca	11	+1	14
6	Universidad O&M	12	+2	13
7	Jarabacoa	12	−13	5
8	Atlántico	12	−27	3