Jarabacoa v Universidad O&M prediction · Liga Mayor

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 00:00

Jarabacoa 4–3 Universidad O&M UNIVERSIDAD O&M WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Universidad O&M win~~48%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.851

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.026

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Universidad O&M win at 48%.
21′We said Universidad O&M at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 2–0 · 80–13–7
23′A goal for Jarabacoa on 23′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 81–13–6
24′A goal for Jarabacoa on 13′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 81–13–6
33′We said Universidad O&M at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 2–1 · 59–25–16
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Jarabacoa 2–1 Universidad O&M
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Universidad O&M win: 48% at kick-off, 16% now
34′Universidad O&M score on 33′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 59–25–16
35′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 59–25–16
39′We said Universidad O&M at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 3–1 · 86–10–4
39′Jarabacoa find the net on 39′. 3–1. 3–1 · 86–10–4
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Jarabacoa 3–1 Universidad O&M
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Universidad O&M win: 48% at kick-off, 4% now
40′4 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 86–10–4
45′HALF-TIME Jarabacoa 3–1 Universidad O&M
45′SECOND HALF Jarabacoa 3–1 Universidad O&M
78′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 84–15–2
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Jarabacoa 3–2 Universidad O&M
79′A goal for Universidad O&M on 78′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 85–14–1
80′We said Universidad O&M at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 3–3 · 9–77–14
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Jarabacoa 3–3 Universidad O&M
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Universidad O&M win: 48% at kick-off, 14% now
80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Draw is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Jarabacoa win 86%)
81′Universidad O&M score on 80′ to make it 3–3. 3–3 · 9–79–13
82′6 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–3 · 8–81–12
84′That is 7, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 4–3 · 91–9–0
84′Jarabacoa find the net on 84′. 4–3. 4–3 · 91–9–0
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Jarabacoa 4–3 Universidad O&M
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Universidad O&M win: 48% at kick-off, under 1% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Jarabacoa win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 85%)
90′Jarabacoa ahead on 85′ through A. Sanchez. 4–3. 4–3 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME Jarabacoa 4–3 Universidad O&M
FTJarabacoa 4–3 Universidad O&M · Universidad O&M win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Universidad O&M are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Jarabacoa 26%, draw 26%, Universidad O&M 48%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Jarabacoa v Universidad O&MBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Jarabacoa win26%

Draw26%

Universidad O&M win48%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 21:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Jarabacoa

Universidad O&M

6Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga Mayor

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga Mayor

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Universidad O&M	11	+3	13
7	Jarabacoa	11	−14	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · universidad o&m winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

48% The market56%

Us48%

~~Market~~56%

We make Universidad O&M a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Jarabacoa v Universidad O&M~~1.04 – 1.53

~~Form · last six in Liga Mayor this season · since 19 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 2 v 13~~7 v 6

~~The market · Universidad O&M win~~56% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Universidad O&M win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Jarabacoa win	26%	19%	+7
Draw	26%	24%	+2
Universidad O&M win	48%	56%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	47%	51%	−4
Both teams to score	50%	51%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	73%	74%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	26%	31%	−5
Jarabacoa or draw	52%	44%	+8
Jarabacoa clean sheet	22%	–	–
Universidad O&M clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 8.4 11.4 8.9 4.6 1 7.7 12.2 8.9 4.6 2 4.2 6.2 4.6 2.4 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Jarabacoa down, Universidad O&M across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 625 Liga Mayor matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Mayor matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.5% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.10 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Jarabacoa at home: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Universidad O&M away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.04 goals for Jarabacoa, 1.53 for Universidad O&M. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~UNI 4–0 JAR · JAR 1–3 UNI · UNI 2–1 JAR · UNI 5–1 JAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Mayor this season · since 19 Sept

JARABACOA

LLLDDL0–2 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–1

UNIVERSIDAD O&M

DWLLWD1–1 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salcedo	11	+16	29
2	Cibao	11	+15	21
3	Vega Real	11	+5	17
4	Delfines Del Este	11	+2	16
5	Moca	11	+1	14
6	Universidad O&M	11	+3	13
7	Jarabacoa	11	−14	2
8	Atlántico	11	−28	0