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Jarabacoa v Delfines Del Este

Jarabacoa

1–1Full time

Delfines Del Este

Liga Mayor · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio El Condor

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 23:31

Jarabacoa 1–1 Delfines Del Este DELFINES DEL ESTE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Delfines Del Este win~~54%

~~The market said~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.875

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.088

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Delfines Del Este win at 54%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Delfines Del Este 54% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 19–26–55
1′KICK-OFF Jarabacoa v Delfines Del Este
2′Little has changed for our model: Delfines Del Este 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 19–26–54
42′We said Delfines Del Este at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 42%. 0–0 · 18–40–42
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Delfines Del Este win: 54% at kick-off, 42% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Delfines Del Este win: 54% at kick-off, 54% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Delfines Del Este win: 54% at kick-off, 54% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Delfines Del Este win: 54% at kick-off, 42% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Delfines Del Este win: 54% at kick-off, 42% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Delfines Del Este win: 54% at kick-off, 54% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Delfines Del Este win: 54% at kick-off, 54% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Delfines Del Este win: 54% at kick-off, 42% now
45′HALF-TIME Jarabacoa 0–0 Delfines Del Este
46′SECOND HALF Jarabacoa 0–0 Delfines Del Este
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' Jarabacoa 1–0 Delfines Del Este
90′⚽ GOAL · 95' Jarabacoa 1–1 Delfines Del Este
FTFULL TIME Jarabacoa 1–1 Delfines Del Este
FTJarabacoa 1–1 Delfines Del Este · Delfines Del Este win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Jarabacoa win20%

Draw26%

Delfines Del Este win54%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 21:00

Venue · Estadio El Condor

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · delfines del este winPublished 10 Oct 21:03

54% The market68%

Us54%

~~Market~~68%

We make Delfines Del Este a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · delfines del este win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 68% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Jarabacoa win	20%	11%	+8
Draw	26%	21%	+5
Delfines Del Este win	54%	68%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	41%	47%	−6
Both teams to score	42%	39%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	67%	70%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	21%	26%	−6
Jarabacoa or draw	46%	32%	+13
Jarabacoa clean sheet	23%	–	–
Delfines Del Este clean sheet	46%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.9%

0123450 10.6 14.9 11.3 5.9 2.4 1 7.7 11.8 8.6 4.4 2 3.2 4.6 3.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Jarabacoa down, Delfines Del Este across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 617 Liga Mayor matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Mayor matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.2% of games this season, across 36 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 1.67 goals a meeting; 1 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Jarabacoa at home: 0.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Delfines Del Este away: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.79 goals for Jarabacoa, 1.53 for Delfines Del Este. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 9

~~Both scored~~2 of 9

~~Last meetings~~DEL 1–0 JAR · DEL 2–0 JAR · JAR 1–1 DEL · DEL 3–1 JAR

Form · last six in Liga Mayor

JARABACOA

LLLLLD0–1 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 2–2

DELFINES DEL ESTE

LWDWLL0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salcedo	9	+14	23
2	Cibao	9	+8	17
3	Vega Real	9	+6	16
4	Delfines Del Este	9	+2	14
5	Moca	9	+1	13
6	Universidad O&M	9	+2	11
7	Jarabacoa	9	−13	4
8	Atlántico	9	−20	2