Cibao v Moca prediction · Liga Mayor

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CibaoDrawMoca

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 22:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Cibao 58%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cibao are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cibao 58%, draw 27%, Moca 15%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on Cibao v MocaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Cibao win58%

Draw27%

Moca win15%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 22:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueEstadio Cibao FC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cibao

Moca

9Days since last match8

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga Mayor

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga Mayor

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Cibao	11	+15	21
5	Moca	11	+1	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cibao winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

58% The market–

Us58%

We make Cibao a 58% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–0.6, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cibao v Moca~~1.49 – 0.61

~~Form · last six in Liga Mayor this season · since 19 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 21 v 14~~2 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cibao win	58%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Moca win	15%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	35%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Cibao or draw	85%	–	–
Cibao clean sheet	55%	–	–
Moca clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.9%

0123450 13.1 7.1 2.3 1 17.9 11.2 3.4 2 13.4 8.0 2.5 3 6.7 4.0 4 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cibao down, Moca across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 627 Liga Mayor matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Mayor matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.8% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.60 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cibao at home: 2.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Moca away: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Cibao, 0.61 for Moca. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.60

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MOC 2–1 CIB · MOC 2–2 CIB · CIB 1–0 MOC · MOC 1–0 CIB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Mayor this season · since 19 Sept

CIBAO

DDWWWD1–1 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 7–0 · 0–0

MOCA

WDLLLW3–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salcedo	11	+16	29
2	Cibao	11	+15	21
3	Vega Real	12	+4	17
4	Delfines Del Este	11	+2	16
5	Moca	11	+1	14
6	Universidad O&M	12	+2	13
7	Jarabacoa	12	−13	5
8	Atlántico	12	−27	3