Cibao v Atlántico prediction · Liga Mayor

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 01:30

Cibao 7–0 Atlántico CIBAO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cibao win~~79%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.071

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cibao win at 79%.
1′Much as we predicted: Cibao was 79% before kick-off and our model makes it 80% now. 0–0 · 80–13–7
17′A goal for Cibao on 15′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Cibao win: 79% at kick-off, 98% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Cibao win: 79% at kick-off, 80% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Cibao win: 79% at kick-off, 80% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Cibao win: 79% at kick-off, 98% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Cibao win: 79% at kick-off, 98% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Cibao win: 79% at kick-off, 80% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Cibao win: 79% at kick-off, 98% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Cibao win: 79% at kick-off, 80% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Cibao win: 79% at kick-off, 80% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Cibao win: 79% at kick-off, 98% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Cibao win: 79% at kick-off, 80% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Cibao win: 79% at kick-off, 98% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Cibao win: 79% at kick-off, 98% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Cibao win: 79% at kick-off, 80% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Cibao win: 79% at kick-off, 80% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Cibao win: 79% at kick-off, 98% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Cibao win: 79% at kick-off, 98% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Cibao win: 79% at kick-off, 80% now
38′We published Cibao at 79%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–1–0
41′We published Cibao at 79%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–1–0
45′HALF-TIME Cibao 2–0 Atlántico
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Cibao win: 79% at kick-off, 98% now
46′SECOND HALF Cibao 2–0 Atlántico
48′⚽ GOAL · 47' Cibao 3–0 Atlántico
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Cibao 3–0 Atlántico
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Cibao 4–0 Atlántico
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Cibao 5–0 Atlántico
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Cibao 6–0 Atlántico
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Cibao 7–0 Atlántico
FTCibao 7–0 Atlántico · Cibao win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Cibao win79%

Draw14%

Atlántico win8%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 23:00

VenueEstadio Cibao FC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Cibao

Atlántico

7Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Cibao	9	+8	17
8	Atlántico	9	−20	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cibao winPublished 11 Oct 23:01

79% The market–

Us79%

We make Cibao a 79% chance to win. The model expects 2.8–0.7, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cibao win	79%	–	–
Draw	14%	–	–
Atlántico win	8%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	67%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	46%	–	–
Cibao or draw	92%	–	–
Cibao clean sheet	49%	–	–
Atlántico clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.4%

0123450 3.5 2.3 1 8.5 6.4 2.3 2 11.4 8.1 3.0 3 10.3 7.2 2.7 4 7.2 5.0 5 4.2 2.9

under 2% 5% 12%+Cibao down, Atlántico across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 619 Liga Mayor matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Mayor matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.4% of games this season, across 38 played.

Head to head

16 previous meetings, 2.88 goals a meeting; 8 of 16 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cibao at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Atlántico away: 0.67 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.79 goals for Cibao, 0.72 for Atlántico. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

16 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.88

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 16

~~Both scored~~8 of 16

~~Last meetings~~ATL 1–4 CIB · ATL 0–5 CIB · CIB 2–1 ATL · ATL 2–5 CIB

Form · last six in Liga Mayor

CIBAO

WLDDWW2–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 2–1

ATLÁNTICO

LLLLLD1–6 · 0–5 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Salcedo	9	+14	23
2	Cibao	9	+8	17
3	Vega Real	9	+6	16
4	Delfines Del Este	10	+2	15
5	Universidad O&M	10	+3	14
6	Moca	10	0	13
7	Jarabacoa	10	−13	5
8	Atlántico	9	−20	2