Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › Superliga › Viborg v FC Midtjylland

Back
Denmark flag

Viborg v FC Midtjylland

Viborg
1–2Full time
FC Midtjylland

Superliga · MON 19 OCT · Viborg Stadion

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 20:30
Viborg 1–2 FC Midtjylland FC MIDTJYLLAND WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said FC Midtjylland win45%
The market said40%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.462
The market’s Brier score0.536

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 33 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said FC Midtjylland win at 45%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: FC Midtjylland 45% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 30–25–44
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Viborg v FC Midtjylland
  4. 18′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Rasmus Kristensen · FC Midtjylland
  5. 26′Viborg have had 7 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 29–30–41
  6. 28′8 shots for Viborg, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 29–30–41
  7. 28′SUBSTITUTION · 27' FC Midtjylland · On: Sofus Johannesen · Off: Denil Castillo
  8. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Mads Bech Sørensen · FC Midtjylland
  9. 45′HALF-TIME Viborg 0–0 FC Midtjylland
  10. 45′SECOND HALF Viborg 0–0 FC Midtjylland
  11. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FC Midtjylland · On: Cho Gue-sung · Off: Stanley Iheanacho
  12. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FC Midtjylland · On: Julius Emefile · Off: Kjell-Arik Wätjen
  13. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' FC Midtjylland win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
  14. 50′12 shots for Viborg, 4 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 26–39–35
  15. 52′Rasmus Kristensen scores for FC Midtjylland on 51′. 0–0 · 26–40–34
  16. 52′We said FC Midtjylland at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 0–1 · 6–19–74
  17. 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was FC Midtjylland win 37%)
  18. 52′⚽ GOAL · 51' Viborg 0–1 FC Midtjylland · Rasmus Kristensen
  19. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' FC Midtjylland win: 45% at kick-off, 74% now
  20. 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' FC Midtjylland win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 40%)
  21. 53′We said FC Midtjylland at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 6–19–75
  22. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' FC Midtjylland win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
  23. 58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Mike Tullberg · FC Midtjylland
  24. 59′Dorian Hanza scores for Viborg on 59′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 24–45–31
  25. 59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Viborg 1–1 FC Midtjylland · Dorian Hanza
  26. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' FC Midtjylland win: 45% at kick-off, 31% now
  27. 59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was FC Midtjylland win 76%)
  28. 60′We said FC Midtjylland at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 1–1 · 23–46–31
  29. 60′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–1 · 23–46–31
  30. 61′16 shots for Viborg, 6 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 23–47–30
  31. 63′We said FC Midtjylland at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 22–48–29
  32. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Viborg · On: Valgeir Lunddal Fridriksson · Off: Hjalte Bidstrup
  33. 66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Viborg 1–2 FC Midtjylland
  34. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' FC Midtjylland win: 45% at kick-off, 79% now
  35. 66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' FC Midtjylland win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 52%)
  36. 67′66′: Philip Billing on the scoresheet for FC Midtjylland, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 3–17–79
  37. 68′We said FC Midtjylland at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
  38. 76′We said FC Midtjylland at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–2 · 2–14–85
  39. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' FC Midtjylland win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
  40. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Viborg · On: Philip Keller · Off: Mads Søndergaard Clausen
  41. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Viborg · On: Ruben Kristensen Alte · Off: Asker Beck
  42. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Viborg · On: Adam Kleis-Kristoffersen · Off: Sami Jalal Karchoud
  43. 81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Andreas Maxsø · FC Midtjylland
  44. 82′We said FC Midtjylland at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
  45. 85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Lukas Kirkegaard · Viborg
  46. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Viborg · On: Žan Zaletel · Off: Charly Ngos Nouck Horneman
  47. 89′We said FC Midtjylland at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
  48. 89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Jeppe Grønning · Viborg
  49. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' FC Midtjylland win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
  50. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' FC Midtjylland · On: Mileta Rajovic · Off: Friday Etim
  51. FTFULL TIME Viborg 1–2 FC Midtjylland
  52. FTViborg 1–2 FC Midtjylland · FC Midtjylland win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Midtjylland are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Viborg 30%, draw 25%, FC Midtjylland 45%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Viborg v FC MidtjyllandBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Viborg win30%
Draw25%
FC Midtjylland win45%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueViborg Stadion

RefereeSandi Putros

Line-ups

Viborg

4-3-3

FC Midtjylland

3-4-1-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Viborg

FC Midtjylland

8Days since last match4

Last match: 11 Oct · the Danish Superliga

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2FC Midtjylland10+922
3Viborg10+920

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Viborg

4-3-3

20 K. Kiilerich

26 Hjalte Bidstrup

4 L. Kirkegaard

24 D. Anyembe

23 O. Bundgaard

8 A. Beck

13 J. Grønning

6 M. Søndergaard

10 S. Jalal

19 Dorian Hanza

11 C. Nouck

Coach · Nickolai Lund

Substitutes

18 · R. Alte

33 · Frederik Damkjer

36 · Adam Kleis-Kristoffersen

3 · V. Lunddal Friðriksson

1 · L. Lund

38 · E. Monrad

5 · Ž. Zaletel

41 · Andreas Søndergaard

34 · Philip Keller

FC Midtjylland

3-4-1-2

25 N. Bakker

2 A. Maxsø

4 O. Diao

22 M. Bech

5 R. Kristensen

8 P. Billing

19 P. Bravo

29 K. Wätjen

21 D. Castillo

90 F. Etim

18 S. Iheanacho

Coach · M. Tullberg

Substitutes

20 · Hong Hyun-Seok

27 · S. Johannesen

98 · D. Martínez

9 · M. Rajović

17 · M. Uhre

30 · O. Ejeheri

10 · Cho Gue-Sung

15 · B. Dje Bi Dje

38 · J. Emefile

Our number · fc midtjylland winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off
45% The market40%
Us45%
Market40%

We make FC Midtjylland a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Viborg v FC Midtjylland1.38 – 1.72
Form · last six in Superliga this season · since 23 AugW4 D1 L1 · W3 D3 L0
Table places · points 20 v 223 v 2
The market · FC Midtjylland win40% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50% 13 OCT 05:3419 OCT 17:37
Our probability · FC Midtjylland win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 43% to 40% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Viborg win30%34%−4
Draw25%26%−1
FC Midtjylland win45%40%+5
Over 2.5 goals60%61%−1
Both teams to score62%64%−2
Over 1.5 goals82%82%0
Over 3.5 goals38%41%−3
Viborg or draw55%60%−5
Viborg clean sheet18%––
FC Midtjylland clean sheet25%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%
0123450 5.5 6.8 6.6 3.8 1 5.3 11.5 9.1 5.2 2.3 2 4.3 7.3 6.3 3.6 3 2.0 3.4 2.9 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Viborg down, FC Midtjylland across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting3.60
Over 2.56 of 10
Both scored6 of 10
Last meetingsFCM 3–3 VIB · VIB 1–1 FCM · VIB 3–3 FCM · FCM 2–0 VIB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Superliga this season · since 23 Aug

VIBORG

WWLDWW4–0 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 2–0

FC MIDTJYLLAND

DWDWDW1–1 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1FC Copenhagen11+1425
2FC Midtjylland10+922
3Viborg10+920
4FC Nordsjaelland11+419
5Brondby11−116
6AC Horsens11−113
7Odense11−513
8Silkeborg11−411
9Randers FC11−511
10Aarhus11−39
11Sonderjyske11−88
12Lyngby11−98

The competition's standings before kick-off.