Sonderjyske v Silkeborg prediction · Superliga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Sonderjyske 4–0 Silkeborg SONDERJYSKE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sonderjyske win~~38%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.581

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.598

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sonderjyske win at 38%.
1′Sonderjyske score on 1′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 63–18–19
1′We published Sonderjyske at 38%. Our model now makes it 63%. 1–0 · 63–18–19
1′KICK-OFF Sonderjyske v Silkeborg
17′🟥 RED CARD · 17' Silkeborg
17′SUBSTITUTION · 9' Sonderjyske · On: Anders Bergholt · Off: Dalton Wilkins
18′A red card for Silkeborg on 18′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 64–20–16
20′We published Sonderjyske at 38%. Our model now makes it 65%. 1–0 · 65–20–16
21′We published Sonderjyske at 38%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–0 · 85–10–5
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Sonderjyske 2–0 Silkeborg
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Sonderjyske win: 38% at kick-off, 85% now
22′Sonderjyske ahead on 22′ through Stefan Velkov. 2–0. 2–0 · 85–10–5
29′SUBSTITUTION · 28' Silkeborg · On: Maël Durand de Gevigney · Off: William Kirk
29′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Mads Freundlich · Silkeborg
32′We published Sonderjyske at 38%. Our model now makes it 96%. 3–0 · 96–3–1
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Sonderjyske 3–0 Silkeborg
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Sonderjyske win: 38% at kick-off, 96% now
33′Mohamed Cherif scores for Sonderjyske on 32′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 96–3–1
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Sonderjyske win: 38% at kick-off, 98% now
45′SECOND HALF Sonderjyske 3–0 Silkeborg
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Silkeborg · On: Andreas Poulsen · Off: Oliver Ross
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Silkeborg · On: Kristian Kirkegaard · Off: Kristian Bloch Bøgild
49′HALF-TIME Sonderjyske 3–0 Silkeborg
67′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Alexander Munksgaard · Sonderjyske
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Silkeborg · On: Rami Hajal · Off: Mads Freundlich
69′We published Sonderjyske at 38%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Sonderjyske · On: Bubacarr Tambedou · Off: Anders Bergholt
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Sonderjyske · On: Andreas Oggesen · Off: Ismaïl Seydi
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Sonderjyske · On: Teodor Berg Haltvik · Off: Osaze De Rosario
73′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 3–0 · 100–0–0
78′4 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Sonderjyske 4–0 Silkeborg
81′80′: Teodor Berg Haltvik on the scoresheet for Sonderjyske, making it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
81′78′: Teodor Berg Haltvik on the scoresheet for Sonderjyske, making it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Sonderjyske · On: Jacob Christensen · Off: Anders Raffnsøe Hoeg
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Silkeborg · On: Julius Lorents Nielsen · Off: Lucas Thorst Riisgaard
92′Full time, 4–0. We called Sonderjyske at 38% — that one lands. 4–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Sonderjyske 4–0 Silkeborg
FTSonderjyske 4–0 Silkeborg · Sonderjyske win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Sonderjyske just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Sonderjyske 38%, draw 25%, Silkeborg 37%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Sonderjyske v SilkeborgBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sonderjyske win38%

Draw25%

Silkeborg win37%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueHaderslev Fodbold Stadion

RefereeSvend Funder

Line-ups

Sonderjyske

4-2-3-1

Silkeborg

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sonderjyske

Silkeborg

6Days since last match7

Last match: 12 Oct · the Danish Superliga

Last match: 11 Oct · the Danish Superliga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Silkeborg	10	0	11
12	Sonderjyske	10	−12	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sonderjyske

4-2-3-1

24 N. Shinton

3 A. Munksgaard

12 M. Soulas

21 S. Velkov

19 P. Kristensen

17 A. Hoeg

10 M. Olesen

31 I. Seydi

8 M. Haidara

13 D. Wilkins

11 O. De Rosario

Coach · Fatah Abdirahman

Substitutes

33 · J. Christensen

26 · B. Tambedou

22 · A. Oggesen

9 · M. Hoppe

1 · N. Flø

30 · G. Wagner

25 · B. Bjarnason

28 · A. Pedersen

14 · T. Haltvik

Silkeborg

3-4-2-1

1 A. Andrésen

33 M. Freundlich

3 R. Østrøm

24 A. Madsen

7 V. Westh

27 W. Kirk

20 M. Larsen

19 J. Gammelby

21 L. Riisgaard

42 Kristian Bloch Bøgild

11 O. Ross

Coach · M. Dahm Kjaergaard

Substitutes

36 · J. Nielsen

10 · K. Kirkegaard

30 · T. Mikkelsen

4 · Pedro Ganchas

2 · A. Poulsen

23 · M. Hansen

14 · S. Berger

22 · R. Al Hajj

6 · M. de Gevigney

Our number · sonderjyske winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:38 · locked at kick-off

38% The market37%

Us38%

~~Market~~37%

We make Sonderjyske a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sonderjyske v Silkeborg~~1.62 – 1.59

~~Form · last six in Superliga this season · since 23 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 5 v 11~~12 v 7

~~The market · Sonderjyske win~~37% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sonderjyske win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 38% now. The market has gone from 39% to 37% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sonderjyske win	38%	37%	+1
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Silkeborg win	37%	36%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	62%	58%	+4
Both teams to score	64%	62%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	84%	80%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	40%	38%	+2
Sonderjyske or draw	63%	64%	−1
Sonderjyske clean sheet	21%	–	–
Silkeborg clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.0 5.6 5.1 2.7 1 5.7 11.2 8.2 4.3 2 5.3 8.3 6.6 3.5 3 2.9 4.5 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sonderjyske down, Silkeborg across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,026 Superliga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Superliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.1% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sonderjyske at home: 1.50 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). Silkeborg away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Sonderjyske, 1.59 for Silkeborg. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 12:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SON 2–1 SIL · SIL 0–2 SON · SIL 1–0 SON · SON 2–1 SIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Superliga this season · since 23 Aug

SONDERJYSKE

LLLDWL0–3 · 1–3 · 2–5 · 1–1 · 4–2 · 0–3

SILKEBORG

LDDDWD1–3 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Copenhagen	10	+14	24
2	FC Midtjylland	10	+9	22
3	Viborg	10	+9	20
4	FC Nordsjaelland	10	+4	18
5	Brondby	10	0	16
6	AC Horsens	11	−1	13
7	Silkeborg	10	0	11
8	Randers FC	11	−5	11
9	Odense	10	−6	10
10	Aarhus	10	−3	8
11	Lyngby	10	−9	7
12	Sonderjyske	10	−12	5