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Silkeborg v AC Horsens

Silkeborg

3–3Full time

AC Horsens

Superliga · SUN 11 OCT · JYSK Park

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:46

Silkeborg 3–3 AC Horsens SILKEBORG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Silkeborg win~~47%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.876

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.811

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 38 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Silkeborg win at 47%.
0′Little has changed for our model: Silkeborg 47% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–23–29
2′Little has changed for our model: Silkeborg 47% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–23–29
7′AC Horsens ahead on 8′ through Alagie Saine. 0–1. 0–1 · 25–22–53
8′AC Horsens ahead on 8′ through Alagie Saine. 0–1. 0–1 · 25–22–53
11′We said Silkeborg at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–23–53
23′Jakob Bonde Jensen scores for AC Horsens on 23′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 8–13–79
24′Jakob Bonde Jensen scores for AC Horsens on 23′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 7–13–80
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Silkeborg win: 47% at kick-off, 21% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Silkeborg win: 47% at kick-off, 8% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Silkeborg win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Silkeborg win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Silkeborg win: 47% at kick-off, 8% now
26′We said Silkeborg at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 0–2 · 7–13–80
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Silkeborg win: 47% at kick-off, 8% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Silkeborg win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Silkeborg win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Silkeborg win: 47% at kick-off, 8% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Silkeborg win: 47% at kick-off, 8% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Silkeborg win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
29′We said Silkeborg at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 0–2 · 6–13–81
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Silkeborg win: 47% at kick-off, 8% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Silkeborg win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
41′We said Silkeborg at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–11–85
45′We said Silkeborg at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–10–86
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Silkeborg win: 47% at kick-off, 4% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' AC Horsens win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Silkeborg win 4%)
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Silkeborg · On: William Kirk · Off: Maël Durand de Gevigney
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Silkeborg · On: Kristian Bloch Bøgild · Off: Rami Hajal
45′SECOND HALF Silkeborg 0–2 AC Horsens
46′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Abdul Moro · AC Horsens
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Silkeborg 1–2 AC Horsens · Jakob Bonde Jensen
52′⚽ GOAL · 48' Silkeborg 1–2 AC Horsens · Oliver Ross
58′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Jakob Bonde Jensen · AC Horsens
62′⚽ GOAL · 63' Silkeborg 1–2 AC Horsens · Oliver Ross
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Silkeborg 2–2 AC Horsens · Oliver Ross
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Silkeborg 3–2 AC Horsens · Oliver Ross
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Silkeborg · On: Andreas Poulsen · Off: Mads Freundlich
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' AC Horsens · On: Adam Herdonsson · Off: Abdul Moro
75′SUBSTITUTION · 76' AC Horsens · On: Julius Körkkö · Off: Yamirou Ouorou
75′SUBSTITUTION · 76' AC Horsens · On: Seniko Doua · Off: Mikkel Kupijbida
81′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Silkeborg · On: Pedro Luis Machado Ganchas · Off: Lucas Thorst Riisgaard
81′SUBSTITUTION · 82' AC Horsens · On: Jimi Tauriainen · Off: Kingsley Bimpong
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' AC Horsens · On: Fallou Sene · Off: Karlo Lusavec
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Silkeborg · On: Kristian Kirkegaard · Off: Oliver Ross
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Jimi Tauriainen · AC Horsens
93′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Kristian Bloch Bøgild · Silkeborg
94′⚽ GOAL · 94' Silkeborg 3–3 AC Horsens · Oliver Ross
95′⚽ GOAL · 95' Silkeborg 3–3 AC Horsens · Alagie Saine
FTFULL TIME Silkeborg 3–3 AC Horsens
FTSilkeborg 3–3 AC Horsens · Silkeborg win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Silkeborg win47%

Draw24%

AC Horsens win28%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:00

VenueJYSK Park

RefereeJakob Kehlet

Line-ups

Silkeborg

3-4-2-1

AC Horsens

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Silkeborg

AC Horsens

23Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	AC Horsens	9	−1	11
7	Silkeborg	9	0	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Silkeborg

3-4-2-1

1 A. Andrésen

6 M. de Gevigney

3 R. Østrøm

24 A. Madsen

7 V. Westh

20 M. Larsen

33 M. Freundlich

19 J. Gammelby

21 L. Riisgaard

11 O. Ross

22 R. Al Hajj

Coach · M. Dahm Kjaergaard

Substitutes

42 · Kristian Bloch Bøgild

14 · S. Berger

36 · J. Nielsen

27 · W. Kirk

10 · K. Kirkegaard

30 · T. Mikkelsen

4 · Pedro Ganchas

2 · A. Poulsen

23 · M. Hansen

AC Horsens

4-2-3-1

1 M. Delač

26 V. Pálsson

35 M. Kupijbida

28 A. Saine

7 I. Miličević

16 A. Moro

20 K. Lusavec

27 Y. Ouorou

6 J. Bonde

15 A. Justinussen

41 Kingsley Bimpong

Coach · Niki Zimling

Substitutes

22 · J. Batigi

40 · Ismaila Ceesay

19 · Jimi Weikko Tauriainen

12 · Diomande Valassina Solo

30 · S. Doua

17 · A. Herdonsson

18 · J. Körkkö

31 · A. Hoff

25 · Fallou Sene

Our number · silkeborg winPublished 11 Oct 13:14

47% The market44%

Us47%

~~Market~~44%

We make Silkeborg a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · silkeborg win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 43% to 44% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Silkeborg win	47%	44%	+3
Draw	24%	27%	−3
AC Horsens win	28%	28%	0
Over 2.5 goals	61%	53%	+8
Both teams to score	62%	57%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	83%	76%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	39%	31%	+7
Silkeborg or draw	72%	72%	0
Silkeborg clean sheet	26%	–	–
AC Horsens clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 5.2 5.1 4.0 1 7.0 11.1 6.9 3.2 2 6.9 9.1 6.1 2.8 3 4.2 5.5 3.7 4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Silkeborg down, AC Horsens across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,020 Superliga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Superliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.7% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Silkeborg at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). AC Horsens away: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.80 goals for Silkeborg, 1.35 for AC Horsens. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 13:05. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ACH 0–1 SIL · SIL 1–2 ACH · ACH 3–2 SIL · SIL 2–1 ACH

Form · last six in Superliga

SILKEBORG

LLDDDW0–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 4–0

AC HORSENS

WWLWLD2–1 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 5–2 · 0–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Copenhagen	9	+15	24
2	FC Midtjylland	9	+8	19
3	FC Nordsjaelland	10	+4	18
4	Viborg	9	+7	17
5	Brondby	9	−3	13
6	AC Horsens	9	−1	11
7	Silkeborg	9	0	10
8	Randers FC	9	−3	10
9	Odense	10	−6	10
10	Lyngby	9	−6	7
11	Aarhus	9	−6	5
12	Sonderjyske	9	−9	5