Randers FC v Viborg prediction · Superliga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:46

Randers FC 0–2 Viborg VIBORG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Viborg win~~38%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.586

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.472

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Viborg win at 38%.
0′Much as we predicted: Viborg was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 36–25–39
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Randers FC 0–1 Viborg · Dorian Hanza
27′26′ and it is 0–1: Dorian Hanza on the scoresheet for Viborg. 0–1 · 12–21–66
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Viborg win: 38% at kick-off, 66% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Viborg win: 38% at kick-off, 36% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Viborg win: 38% at kick-off, 66% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Viborg win: 38% at kick-off, 36% now
29′26′ and it is 0–1: Dorian Hanza on the scoresheet for Viborg. 0–1 · 12–21–67
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Viborg win: 38% at kick-off, 36% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Viborg win: 38% at kick-off, 66% now
31′We published Viborg at 38%. Our model now makes it 67%. 0–1 · 12–21–67
33′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 11–21–67
35′We published Viborg at 38%. Our model now makes it 68%. 0–1 · 11–21–68
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Viborg win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Viborg win: 38% at kick-off, 67% now
36′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 11–21–68
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Viborg win: 38% at kick-off, 67% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Viborg win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Viborg win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Viborg win: 38% at kick-off, 67% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Viborg win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Viborg win: 38% at kick-off, 67% now
44′We published Viborg at 38%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
45′SECOND HALF Randers FC 0–1 Viborg
47′We published Viborg at 38%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Mathias Greve · Randers FC
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Viborg win: 38% at kick-off, 70% now
56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Jeppe Grønning · Viborg
60′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Laurits Pedersen · Randers FC
60′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Randers FC · On: Martin André Sjølstad · Off: Nikolas Langberg Dyhr
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Randers FC · On: Martin André Sjølstad · Off: Nikolas Langberg Dyhr
69′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Viborg · On: Philip Keller · Off: Charly Ngos Nouck Horneman
75′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Randers FC · On: Amady Camara · Off: Axel Henriksson
75′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Randers FC · On: Warren Caddy · Off: Elies Mahmoud
75′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Viborg · On: Valgeir Lunddal Fridriksson · Off: Hjalte Bidstrup
75′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Viborg · On: Ruben Kristensen Alte · Off: Mads Søndergaard Clausen
80′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Daniel Høegh · Randers FC
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Randers FC 0–2 Viborg · Dorian Hanza
81′⚽ GOAL · 82' Randers FC 0–2 Viborg · Valgeir Lunddal Fridriksson
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Viborg · On: Giulio Gabriel · Off: Sami Jalal Karchoud
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Viborg · On: Adam Kleis-Kristoffersen · Off: Dorian Hanza
85′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Randers FC · On: Hector Lux · Off: Mike Themsen
FTFULL TIME Randers FC 0–2 Viborg
FTRanders FC 0–2 Viborg · Viborg win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Randers FC win35%

Draw27%

Viborg win38%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:00

VenueCepheus Park Randers

RefereeSvendsen·Frederik

Line-ups

Randers FC

4-2-3-1

Viborg

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Randers FC

Viborg

21Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Viborg	9	+7	17
8	Randers FC	9	−3	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Randers FC

4-2-3-1

1 P. Izzo

24 S. Hansen

3 D. Høegh

27 N. Hopland

44 N. Dyhr

17 M. Greve

8 L. Pedersen

21 A. Henriksson

11 E. Mahmoud

7 M. Themsen

30 M. Sankoh

Coach · R. Bertelsen

Substitutes

15 · M. Sjølstad

10 · W. Caddy

32 · J. Storch

77 · K. Junker

36 · A. Camara

33 · C. Edudzi

29 · S. Stuker

26 · H. Hoyrup

5 · O. Jones

Viborg

4-3-3

20 K. Kiilerich

26 Hjalte Bidstrup

4 L. Kirkegaard

24 D. Anyembe

23 O. Bundgaard

8 A. Beck

13 J. Grønning

6 M. Søndergaard

10 S. Jalal

19 Dorian Hanza

11 C. Nouck

Coach · Nickolai Lund

Substitutes

1 · L. Lund

18 · R. Alte

36 · Adam Kleis-Kristoffersen

34 · Philip Keller

33 · Frederik Damkjer

3 · V. Lunddal Friðriksson

41 · Andreas Søndergaard

25 · Giulio

Our number · viborg winPublished 11 Oct 13:14

38% The market44%

Us38%

~~Market~~44%

We make Viborg a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · viborg win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 45% to 44% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Randers FC win	35%	30%	+6
Draw	27%	26%	0
Viborg win	38%	44%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	53%	57%	−4
Both teams to score	58%	60%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	78%	79%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	31%	36%	−5
Randers FC or draw	62%	56%	+6
Randers FC clean sheet	24%	–	–
Viborg clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 6.9 7.7 6.1 3.0 1 7.4 12.7 8.4 4.1 2 5.7 8.1 5.8 2.8 3 2.7 3.8 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Randers FC down, Viborg across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,020 Superliga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Superliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.7% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

14 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 8 of 14 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Randers FC at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Viborg away: 1.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Randers FC, 1.44 for Viborg. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 13:05. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

14 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 14

~~Both scored~~7 of 14

~~Last meetings~~VIB 3–2 RAN · RAN 2–1 VIB · VIB 1–2 RAN · RAN 3–1 VIB

Form · last six in Superliga

RANDERS FC

LLWWLL0–4 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 2–4

VIBORG

WWWLDW2–1 · 4–0 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Copenhagen	9	+15	24
2	FC Midtjylland	9	+8	19
3	FC Nordsjaelland	10	+4	18
4	Viborg	9	+7	17
5	Brondby	9	−3	13
6	AC Horsens	9	−1	11
7	Silkeborg	9	0	10
8	Randers FC	9	−3	10
9	Odense	10	−6	10
10	Lyngby	9	−6	7
11	Aarhus	9	−6	5
12	Sonderjyske	9	−9	5