Randers FC v Brondby prediction · Superliga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:31

Randers FC 1–3 Brondby BRONDBY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Brondby win~~41%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.518

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.408

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Brondby win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Brondby was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 31–28–41
1′KICK-OFF Randers FC v Brondby
15′We published Brondby at 41%. Our model now makes it 69%. 0–1 · 12–19–69
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Randers FC 0–1 Brondby
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Brondby win: 41% at kick-off, 69% now
17′15′: Mads Frokjaer-Jensen on the scoresheet for Brondby, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 12–19–69
18′We published Brondby at 41%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 12–19–70
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Brondby win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 10–19–71
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Randers FC 1–1 Brondby
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Brondby win: 41% at kick-off, 34% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Brondby win 73%)
45′SECOND HALF Randers FC 1–1 Brondby
46′Randers FC level it on 45′ through Mike Themsen. 1–1. 1–1 · 27–40–33
47′HALF-TIME Randers FC 1–1 Brondby
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Brondby win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
57′We said Brondby at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 24–47–29
60′We published Brondby at 41%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–2 · 4–19–77
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Randers FC 1–2 Brondby
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Brondby win: 41% at kick-off, 77% now
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Brondby win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 49%)
61′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 4–18–77
61′Jacob Brøchner Ambæk scores for Brondby on 60′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 4–18–77
64′We published Brondby at 41%. Our model now makes it 96%. 1–3 · 0–3–96
64′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–3–96
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Randers FC · On: Elies Mahmoud · Off: Kasper Junker
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Randers FC 1–3 Brondby
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Brondby win: 41% at kick-off, 96% now
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Randers FC · On: Felix Sommer · Off: Axel Henriksson
65′64′: Mads Frokjaer-Jensen on the scoresheet for Brondby, making it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–3–97
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Brondby · On: Christopher Olivier · Off: Oliver Marc Rose-Villadsen
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Brondby · On: Oskar Fenger · Off: Jacob Brøchner Ambæk
71′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Oskar Fenger · Brondby
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Brondby · On: Filip Bundgaard Kristensen · Off: Olti Hyseni
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Randers FC · On: Amady Camara · Off: Martin André Sjølstad
83′We published Brondby at 41%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Randers FC · On: Warren Caddy · Off: Mohamed Sankoh
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Randers FC · On: Simon Stüker · Off: Sabil Osman Hansen
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Brondby · On: Sho Fukuda · Off: Mads Frokjaer-Jensen
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Brondby · On: Casper Winther · Off: Marcus Younis
FTFULL TIME Randers FC 1–3 Brondby
FTRanders FC 1–3 Brondby · Brondby win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Brondby are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Randers FC 31%, draw 27%, Brondby 41%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Randers FC v BrondbyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Randers FC win31%

Draw27%

Brondby win41%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueCepheus Park Randers

RefereeJens Maae

Line-ups

Randers FC

4-2-3-1

Brondby

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Randers FC

Brondby

7Days since last match5

Last match: 16 Oct · the Danish Superliga

Last match: 18 Oct · the Danish Superliga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Brondby	11	−1	16
9	Randers FC	11	−5	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Randers FC

4-2-3-1

1 P. Izzo

24 S. Hansen

27 N. Hopland

3 D. Høegh

44 N. Dyhr

30 M. Sankoh

17 M. Greve

15 M. Sjølstad

21 A. Henriksson

7 M. Themsen

77 K. Junker

Coach · R. Bertelsen

Substitutes

32 · J. Storch

10 · W. Caddy

36 · A. Camara

33 · C. Edudzi

29 · S. Stuker

26 · H. Hoyrup

5 · O. Jones

11 · E. Mahmoud

31 · F. Sommer

Brondby

4-2-3-1

1 P. Pentz

2 O. Villadsen

37 R. Canut

32 F. Alves

24 M. Divković

99 B. Slisz

18 M. Ejdum

21 M. Younis

29 M. Frøkjær-Jensen

7 O. Hyseni

38 J. Ambæk

Coach · Thomas Nörgaard

Substitutes

50 · W. Sonne Schmid

3 · Christopher Olivier

9 · P. Mortensen

34 · Lukas Larsen

15 · C. Winther

19 · S. Fukuda

51 · O. Fenger

11 · F. Bundgaard

10 · D. Wass

Our number · brondby winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 19 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

41% The market48%

Us41%

~~Market~~48%

We make Brondby a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Randers FC v Brondby~~1.26 – 1.48

~~Form · last six in Superliga this season · since 30 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 11 v 16~~9 v 5

~~The market · Brondby win~~48% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Brondby win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Randers FC win	31%	27%	+4
Draw	27%	25%	+2
Brondby win	41%	48%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	52%	61%	−9
Both teams to score	56%	62%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	77%	81%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	30%	40%	−10
Randers FC or draw	59%	52%	+7
Randers FC clean sheet	23%	–	–
Brondby clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 7.6 8.5 7.1 3.5 1 7.1 13.0 8.8 4.4 2 5.1 7.5 5.6 2.8 3 2.2 3.2 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Randers FC down, Brondby across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,031 Superliga matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Superliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.1% of games this season, across 66 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.10 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Randers FC at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Brondby away: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Randers FC, 1.48 for Brondby. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 23 Oct 17:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BRO 0–3 RAN · BRO 0–0 RAN · RAN 0–2 BRO · RAN 0–0 BRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Superliga this season · since 30 Aug

RANDERS FC

WWLLLD2–1 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 2–4 · 0–2 · 0–0

BRONDBY

LLLLWL1–3 · 0–3 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 5–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Copenhagen	11	+14	25
2	FC Midtjylland	11	+10	25
3	Viborg	11	+8	20
4	FC Nordsjaelland	11	+4	19
5	Brondby	11	−1	16
6	AC Horsens	11	−1	13
7	Odense	11	−5	13
8	Silkeborg	11	−4	11
9	Randers FC	11	−5	11
10	Aarhus	11	−3	9
11	Sonderjyske	11	−8	8
12	Lyngby	11	−9	8