Odense v Brondby prediction · Superliga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02

Odense 2–1 Brondby BRONDBY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Brondby win~~43%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.737

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.707

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 37 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Brondby win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Brondby 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 31–26–43
1′KICK-OFF Odense v Brondby
5′A goal for Odense on 4′. 0–0 · 30–27–43
5′Noah Ganaus scores for Odense on 5′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 57–21–22
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Odense 1–0 Brondby · Noah Ganaus
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 5' Brondby win: 43% at kick-off, 22% now
5′THE CALL SWINGS · 5' Odense win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Brondby win 22%)
6′We said Brondby at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 1–0 · 57–21–22
7′GOAL DISALLOWED · 6' Noah Ganaus · Odense
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Brondby win: 43% at kick-off, 43% now
7′THE CALL SWINGS · 7' Brondby win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Odense win 30%)
28′We said Brondby at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 1–0 · 61–23–17
28′Noah Ganaus scores for Odense on 27′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 61–23–17
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Odense 1–0 Brondby
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Brondby win: 43% at kick-off, 17% now
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Odense win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Brondby win 17%)
30′29′: Raphael Canut puts it into the Brondby net, and it is 2–0. 2–0 · 84–11–5
30′We said Brondby at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 2–0 · 84–11–5
30′⚽ GOAL · 29' Odense 2–0 Brondby · Raphael Canut (own goal)
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Brondby win: 43% at kick-off, 5% now
34′We said Brondby at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–0 · 85–11–4
38′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Viljar Myhra · Odense
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Brondby win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
43′Brondby pull one back on 42′ through Olti Hyseni. 2–1. 2–1 · 64–24–12
43′We said Brondby at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 2–1 · 64–24–12
43′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Olti Hyseni · Brondby
43′⚽ GOAL · 42' Odense 2–1 Brondby · Olti Hyseni
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Brondby win: 43% at kick-off, 12% now
44′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 64–24–12
45′HALF-TIME Odense 2–1 Brondby
46′SECOND HALF Odense 2–1 Brondby
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Odense · On: Christian Gammelgaard · Off: Alexander Ahl Holmstrom
51′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 90–8–2
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Odense 3–1 Brondby
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Brondby win: 43% at kick-off, 2% now
52′An own goal by Brondby's Frederik Alves on 51′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 90–8–2
53′GOAL DISALLOWED · 53' Christian Gammelgaard · Odense
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Brondby win: 43% at kick-off, 9% now
54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Magnus Hvitfeldt Andersen · Odense
55′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Thomas Thomasberg · Odense
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Brondby · On: Patrick Mortensen · Off: Marcus Younis
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Brondby · On: Christopher Olivier · Off: Oliver Marc Rose-Villadsen
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Brondby win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Odense · On: Rasmus Falk Jensen · Off: Fredrik Ulvestad
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Brondby · On: Daniel Wass · Off: Olti Hyseni
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Brondby · On: Sho Fukuda · Off: Jacob Brøchner Ambæk
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Odense · On: Anssi Suhonen · Off: Nikolaj Juul-Sandberg
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Odense · On: Jay-Roy Grot · Off: Topi Keskinen
87′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Brondby · On: Filip Bundgaard Kristensen · Off: Raphael Canut
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Odense · On: Ulrik Jenssen · Off: Noah Ganaus
FTFULL TIME Odense 2–1 Brondby
FTOdense 2–1 Brondby · Brondby win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Brondby are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Odense 31%, draw 26%, Brondby 43%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Odense v BrondbyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Odense win31%

Draw26%

Brondby win43%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueOdense Stadium

RefereeMichael Tykgaard

Line-ups

Odense

4-3-3

Brondby

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Odense

Brondby

9Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · the Danish Superliga

Last match: 11 Oct · the Danish Superliga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Brondby	10	0	16
9	Odense	10	−6	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Odense

4-3-3

16 V. Myhra

28 Magnus Hvitfeldt Andersen

4 Julian Andreas Pauli

13 J. Berthel Askou

15 M. McCoy

19 Nikolaj Juul-Sandberg

22 I. Ouédraogo

6 F. Ulvestad

17 N. Ganaus

18 A. Ahl-Holmström

9 T. Keskinen

Coach · T. Thomasberg

Substitutes

10 · A. Suhonen

3 · A. Sørensen

24 · M. Rakneberg

5 · U. Yttergård Jenssen

1 · M. Hansen

31 · J. Grot

14 · C. Gammelgaard

8 · R. Falk

7 · J. Arp

Brondby

4-2-3-1

1 P. Pentz

2 O. Villadsen

37 R. Canut

32 F. Alves

24 M. Divković

99 B. Slisz

18 M. Ejdum

21 M. Younis

29 M. Frøkjær-Jensen

7 O. Hyseni

38 J. Ambæk

Coach · Thomas Nörgaard

Substitutes

10 · D. Wass

3 · Christopher Olivier

9 · P. Mortensen

34 · Lukas Larsen

19 · S. Fukuda

51 · O. Fenger

11 · F. Bundgaard

15 · C. Winther

50 · W. Sonne Schmid

Our number · brondby winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market42%

Us43%

~~Market~~42%

We make Brondby a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Odense v Brondby~~1.32 – 1.61

~~Form · last six in Superliga this season · since 23 Aug~~W1 D4 L1 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 10 v 16~~9 v 5

~~The market · Brondby win~~42% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Brondby win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Odense win	31%	32%	−1
Draw	26%	26%	0
Brondby win	43%	42%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	56%	59%	−3
Both teams to score	59%	62%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	80%	81%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	34%	38%	−4
Odense or draw	57%	58%	−1
Odense clean sheet	20%	–	–
Brondby clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 6.4 7.7 6.9 3.7 1 6.2 12.2 9.0 4.9 2 4.7 7.4 5.9 3.2 3 2.1 3.3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Odense down, Brondby across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,026 Superliga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Superliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.1% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Odense at home: 0.83 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Brondby away: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Odense, 1.61 for Brondby. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~ODE 1–4 BRO · BRO 5–1 ODE · ODE 0–3 BRO · BRO 1–2 ODE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Superliga this season · since 23 Aug

ODENSE

DDLWDD2–2 · 1–1 · 0–5 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–0

BRONDBY

WLLLLW3–1 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 5–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Copenhagen	10	+14	24
2	FC Midtjylland	10	+9	22
3	Viborg	10	+9	20
4	FC Nordsjaelland	10	+4	18
5	Brondby	10	0	16
6	AC Horsens	11	−1	13
7	Silkeborg	10	0	11
8	Randers FC	11	−5	11
9	Odense	10	−6	10
10	Aarhus	10	−3	8
11	Lyngby	10	−9	7
12	Sonderjyske	10	−12	5