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Lyngby v FC Nordsjaelland

Lyngby

3–3Full time

FC Nordsjaelland

Superliga · SUN 18 OCT · Lyngby Stadion

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Lyngby 3–3 FC Nordsjaelland FC NORDSJAELLAND WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Nordsjaelland win~~49%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.852

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.918

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 37 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Nordsjaelland win at 49%.
0′KICK-OFF Lyngby v FC Nordsjaelland
2′Much as we predicted: FC Nordsjaelland was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 25–26–49
8′SUBSTITUTION · 7' Lyngby · Lyngby
18′17′: Simon Colyn on the scoresheet for Lyngby. 0–0 · 25–29–46
18′We said FC Nordsjaelland at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 22%. 1–0 · 54–24–22
18′⚽ GOAL · 17' Lyngby 1–0 FC Nordsjaelland · Simon Colyn
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' FC Nordsjaelland win: 49% at kick-off, 22% now
18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Lyngby win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was FC Nordsjaelland win 22%)
28′We said FC Nordsjaelland at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 56–25–19
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' FC Nordsjaelland win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 56–25–19
33′We said FC Nordsjaelland at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 2–0 · 82–12–5
33′Gustav Leone Fraulo scores for Lyngby on 32′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 82–12–5
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Lyngby 2–0 FC Nordsjaelland
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' FC Nordsjaelland win: 49% at kick-off, 5% now
39′We said FC Nordsjaelland at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–0 · 84–11–4
39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Tobias Salquist · FC Nordsjaelland
45′HALF-TIME Lyngby 2–0 FC Nordsjaelland
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FC Nordsjaelland · On: Hjalte Rasmussen · Off: Villum Berthelsen
46′SECOND HALF Lyngby 2–0 FC Nordsjaelland
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FC Nordsjaelland · On: Malte Heyde · Off: Mark Brink
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FC Nordsjaelland · On: Justin Janssen · Off: Tobias Salquist
47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Villum Berthelsen · FC Nordsjaelland
49′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Prince Amoako Junior · FC Nordsjaelland
51′We said FC Nordsjaelland at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 2–1 · 63–25–11
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Lyngby 2–1 FC Nordsjaelland
52′51′: Alexander Lind on the scoresheet for FC Nordsjaelland, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 64–25–11
52′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 64–25–11
54′GOAL DISALLOWED · 51' Alexander Lind · FC Nordsjaelland
62′61′: Frederik Gytkjær on the scoresheet for Lyngby. 2–0 · 93–6–1
63′⚽ GOAL · 61' Lyngby 3–0 FC Nordsjaelland · Frederik Gytkjær (assist Simon Colyn)
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' FC Nordsjaelland · On: Ibrahim Adel · Off: Prince Amoako Junior
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Lyngby · On: Cornelius Allen · Off: Oskar Buur
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Lyngby · On: Daniel Kristjansson · Off: Renzo Tytens
72′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 96–3–0
72′FC Nordsjaelland pull one back on 71′ through Justin Janssen. 3–1. 3–1 · 96–3–0
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Lyngby 3–1 FC Nordsjaelland
75′74′: Runar Robinsonn Norheim on the scoresheet for FC Nordsjaelland. 3–1 · 97–3–0
75′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 79–18–3
75′⚽ GOAL · 74' Lyngby 3–2 FC Nordsjaelland · Runar Robinsonn Norheim
77′6 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–3 · 12–69–19
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Lyngby 3–3 FC Nordsjaelland
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' FC Nordsjaelland win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Draw is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Lyngby win 12%)
79′77′: Malte Heyde on the scoresheet for FC Nordsjaelland, making it 3–3. 3–3 · 11–73–16
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Noah Markmann · FC Nordsjaelland
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Isak Thorvaldsson · Lyngby
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Lyngby · On: Mathias Hebo Rasmussen · Off: Jens Thomasen
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Lyngby · On: Markus Adeniyi Anderson Adedeji · Off: Frederik Gytkjær
83′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Gustav Leone Fraulo · Lyngby
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' FC Nordsjaelland win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Juho Lähteenmäki · FC Nordsjaelland
99′🟨 YELLOW · 90+7' Alexander Lind · FC Nordsjaelland
99′🟨 YELLOW · 90+7' Diego Kochen · Lyngby
FTFULL TIME Lyngby 3–3 FC Nordsjaelland
FTLyngby 3–3 FC Nordsjaelland · FC Nordsjaelland win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Nordsjaelland are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lyngby 25%, draw 26%, FC Nordsjaelland 49%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Lyngby v FC NordsjaellandBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Lyngby win25%

Draw26%

FC Nordsjaelland win49%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueLyngby Stadion

RefereeAydin Uslu

Line-ups

Lyngby

4-4-2

FC Nordsjaelland

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lyngby

FC Nordsjaelland

7Days since last match3

Last match: 11 Oct · the Danish Superliga

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	FC Nordsjaelland	10	+4	18
11	Lyngby	10	−9	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Lyngby

4-4-2

31 D. Kochen

2 O. Buur

30 M. Fischer

24 M. Garananga

25 R. Tytens

19 G. Fraulo

14 L. Sandgrav

18 J. Thomasen

7 S. Colyn

26 F. Gytkjær

10 Í. Þorvaldsson

Coach · Mikkel Jespersen

Substitutes

17 · W. Steindorsson

16 · Z. Sertdemir

6 · D. Kristjánsson

5 · Oliver Højer

8 · M. Hebo

12 · David Helgi Aronsson

35 · M. Anderson

4 · C. Allen

1 · J. Ægidius

FC Nordsjaelland

3-4-3

13 A. Hansen

25 V. Nelsson

3 T. Salquist

4 Noah Markmann

23 R. Norheim

8 N. Røjkjær

6 M. Brink

5 J. Lähteenmäki

29 V. Berthelsen

11 A. Lind

10 P. Amoako

Coach · J. Olsen

Substitutes

28 · M. Walker

37 · Lamine Sadio

40 · H. Boe Rasmussen

18 · Justin Janssen

21 · M. Heyde

16 · J. Busk

2 · P. Ankersen

14 · Ibrahim Adel

15 · S. Acquah

Our number · fc nordsjaelland winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:34 · locked at kick-off

49% The market53%

Us49%

~~Market~~53%

We make FC Nordsjaelland a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lyngby v FC Nordsjaelland~~1.12 – 1.68

~~Form · last six in Superliga this season · since 23 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 18~~11 v 4

~~The market · FC Nordsjaelland win~~53% · ours 49%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Nordsjaelland win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 49% now. The market has gone from 48% to 53% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lyngby win	25%	24%	+1
Draw	26%	24%	+2
FC Nordsjaelland win	49%	53%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	53%	64%	−11
Both teams to score	55%	63%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	78%	83%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	31%	43%	−12
Lyngby or draw	51%	47%	+4
Lyngby clean sheet	19%	–	–
FC Nordsjaelland clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.2 9.3 8.6 4.8 2.1 1 5.9 12.3 9.5 5.3 2.2 2 3.9 6.4 5.3 2.9 3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lyngby down, FC Nordsjaelland across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,026 Superliga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Superliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.1% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lyngby at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). FC Nordsjaelland away: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for Lyngby, 1.68 for FC Nordsjaelland. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 12:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~LYN 1–0 FCN · FCN 1–1 LYN · FCN 3–2 LYN · LYN 1–1 FCN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Superliga this season · since 23 Aug

LYNGBY

LDWDLL1–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 2–5

FC NORDSJAELLAND

WLDWLD3–1 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 1–4 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Copenhagen	10	+14	24
2	FC Midtjylland	10	+9	22
3	Viborg	10	+9	20
4	FC Nordsjaelland	10	+4	18
5	Brondby	10	0	16
6	AC Horsens	11	−1	13
7	Silkeborg	10	0	11
8	Randers FC	11	−5	11
9	Odense	10	−6	10
10	Aarhus	10	−3	8
11	Lyngby	10	−9	7
12	Sonderjyske	10	−12	5