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FC Nordsjaelland v Odense

FC Nordsjaelland

0–0Full time

Odense

Superliga · FRI 9 OCT · Right to Dream Park

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 20:30

FC Nordsjaelland 0–0 Odense FC NORDSJAELLAND WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Nordsjaelland win~~54%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.927

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.059

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Nordsjaelland win at 54%.
29′Little has changed for our model: FC Nordsjaelland 54% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–29–23
32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Julian Andreas Pauli · Odense
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' FC Nordsjaelland win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
45′HALF-TIME FC Nordsjaelland 0–0 Odense
46′SECOND HALF FC Nordsjaelland 0–0 Odense
47′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Victor Nelsson · FC Nordsjaelland
53′PENALTY · 52' FC Nordsjaelland
54′PENALTY MISSED · 53' Justin Janssen · FC Nordsjaelland
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Odense · On: Ismahila Ouédraogo · Off: Rasmus Falk Jensen
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Odense · On: Nikolaj Juul-Sandberg · Off: Jann-Fiete Arp
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' FC Nordsjaelland · On: Prince Amoako Junior · Off: Ibrahim Adel
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Odense · On: Topi Keskinen · Off: Alexander Ahl Holmstrom
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' FC Nordsjaelland · On: Juho Lähteenmäki · Off: Markus Walker
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' FC Nordsjaelland · On: Alexander Lind · Off: Hjalte Rasmussen
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' FC Nordsjaelland · On: Nicklas Rojkjaer · Off: Villum Berthelsen
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Odense · On: Christian Gammelgaard · Off: Noah Ganaus
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Odense · On: Ulrik Jenssen · Off: James Gomez
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Nicklas Rojkjaer · FC Nordsjaelland
90′SUBSTITUTION · 91' FC Nordsjaelland · On: Lamine Sadio · Off: Mark Brink
FTFC Nordsjaelland 0–0 Odense · FC Nordsjaelland win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

FC Nordsjaelland win54%

Draw23%

Odense win23%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 18:00

Venue · Right to Dream Park

Referee · Morten Krogh

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

FC Nordsjaelland

3-4-3

13 A. Hansen

25 V. Nelsson

3 T. Salquist

4 Noah Markmann

28 M. Walker

18 Justin Janssen

6 M. Brink

23 R. Norheim

40 H. Boe Rasmussen

14 Ibrahim Adel

29 V. Berthelsen

Coach · J. Olsen

Substitutes

10 · P. Amoako

2 · P. Ankersen

22 · C. Eriksson

21 · M. Heyde

15 · S. Acquah

5 · J. Lähteenmäki

11 · A. Lind

8 · N. Røjkjær

37 · Lamine Sadio

Odense

3-4-1-2

16 V. Myhra

4 Julian Andreas Pauli

13 J. Berthel Askou

29 J. Gomez

28 Magnus Hvitfeldt Andersen

6 F. Ulvestad

8 R. Falk

15 M. McCoy

7 J. Arp

18 A. Ahl-Holmström

17 N. Ganaus

Coach · T. Thomasberg

Substitutes

14 · C. Gammelgaard

1 · M. Hansen

5 · U. Yttergård Jenssen

19 · Nikolaj Juul-Sandberg

9 · T. Keskinen

22 · I. Ouédraogo

24 · M. Rakneberg

3 · A. Sørensen

10 · A. Suhonen

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

FC Nordsjaelland

3-4-3

13 A. Hansen

25 V. Nelsson

3 T. Salquist

4 Noah Markmann

28 M. Walker

18 Justin Janssen

6 M. Brink

23 R. Norheim

40 H. Boe Rasmussen

14 Ibrahim Adel

29 V. Berthelsen

Coach · J. Olsen

Substitutes

10 · P. Amoako

2 · P. Ankersen

22 · C. Eriksson

21 · M. Heyde

15 · S. Acquah

5 · J. Lähteenmäki

11 · A. Lind

8 · N. Røjkjær

37 · Lamine Sadio

Odense

3-4-1-2

16 V. Myhra

4 Julian Andreas Pauli

13 J. Berthel Askou

29 J. Gomez

28 Magnus Hvitfeldt Andersen

6 F. Ulvestad

8 R. Falk

15 M. McCoy

7 J. Arp

18 A. Ahl-Holmström

17 N. Ganaus

Coach · T. Thomasberg

Substitutes

14 · C. Gammelgaard

1 · M. Hansen

5 · U. Yttergård Jenssen

19 · Nikolaj Juul-Sandberg

9 · T. Keskinen

22 · I. Ouédraogo

24 · M. Rakneberg

3 · A. Sørensen

10 · A. Suhonen

Our number · fc nordsjaelland winPublished 9 Oct 18:04

54% The market62%

Us54%

~~Market~~62%

We make FC Nordsjaelland a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fc nordsjaelland win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Nordsjaelland win	54%	62%	−9
Draw	23%	20%	+3
Odense win	23%	17%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	61%	67%	−6
Both teams to score	60%	62%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	83%	85%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	38%	46%	−8
FC Nordsjaelland or draw	77%	83%	−5
FC Nordsjaelland clean sheet	30%	–	–
Odense clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.1 4.6 3.2 1 7.7 10.7 6.0 2.4 2 8.1 9.7 5.8 2.3 3 5.2 6.2 3.7 4 2.6 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Nordsjaelland down, Odense across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,019 Superliga matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Superliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.7% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.10 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Nordsjaelland at home: 1.33 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Odense away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.94 goals for FC Nordsjaelland, 1.20 for Odense. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 17:32. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FCN 2–4 ODE · ODE 1–2 FCN · ODE 1–1 FCN · FCN 0–1 ODE

Form · last six in Superliga

FC NORDSJAELLAND

WWLDWL3–0 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 1–4

ODENSE

LDDLWD1–2 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–5 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Copenhagen	9	+15	24
2	FC Midtjylland	9	+8	19
3	Viborg	9	+7	17
4	FC Nordsjaelland	9	+4	17
5	Brondby	9	−3	13
6	AC Horsens	9	−1	11
7	Silkeborg	9	0	10
8	Randers FC	9	−3	10
9	Odense	9	−6	9
10	Lyngby	9	−6	7
11	Aarhus	9	−6	5
12	Sonderjyske	9	−9	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match updates

Timeline

Pre-match prediction

Match information

The game so far

Match statistics

Players on the pitch

Line-ups

FC Nordsjaelland

Odense

Match statistics

Line-ups

FC Nordsjaelland

Odense

Head to head

Form · last six in Superliga

The table