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FC Midtjylland v FC Copenhagen

FC Midtjylland

2–1Full time

FC Copenhagen

Superliga · SUN 11 OCT · MCH Arena

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

FC Midtjylland 2–1 FC Copenhagen FC MIDTJYLLAND WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Midtjylland win~~40%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.540

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.587

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay23 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Midtjylland win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: FC Midtjylland was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–23–36
12′FC Midtjylland ahead on 12′ through Friday Etim. 0–0. 0–0 · 40–25–35
14′We published FC Midtjylland at 40%. Our model now makes it 65%. 1–0 · 65–19–15
16′FC Midtjylland ahead on 12′ through Friday Etim. 1–0. 1–0 · 65–20–15
20′We published FC Midtjylland at 40%. Our model now makes it 66%. 1–0 · 66–20–14
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 67–20–13
34′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 67–21–12
46′We published FC Midtjylland at 40%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
47′We published FC Midtjylland at 40%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
51′Mohamed Elyounoussi scores for FC Copenhagen on 49′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 32–38–29
53′Mohamed Elyounoussi scores for FC Copenhagen on 49′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 32–40–29
54′FC Copenhagen have had 8.0 attempts to 3.0 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 31–40–28
61′62′ and it is 2–1: Denil Castillo on the scoresheet for FC Midtjylland. 2–1 · 74–20–6
62′62′ and it is 2–1: Denil Castillo on the scoresheet for FC Midtjylland. 2–1 · 75–20–5
66′We published FC Midtjylland at 40%. Our model now makes it 76%. 2–1 · 76–19–4
68′We published FC Midtjylland at 40%. Our model now makes it 78%. 2–1 · 78–19–4
71′FC Copenhagen have had 12.0 attempts to 6.0 and it is still 2–1. 2–1 · 79–18–3
74′We published FC Midtjylland at 40%. Our model now makes it 81%. 2–1 · 81–16–2
80′We published FC Midtjylland at 40%. Our model now makes it 87%. 2–1 · 87–12–1
83′We published FC Midtjylland at 40%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' FC Midtjylland win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' FC Midtjylland win: 40% at kick-off, 87% now
86′13.0 shots for FC Copenhagen, 7.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 2–1 · 94–6–0
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' FC Midtjylland win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' FC Midtjylland win: 40% at kick-off, 87% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' FC Midtjylland win: 40% at kick-off, 94% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' FC Midtjylland win: 40% at kick-off, 87% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' FC Midtjylland win: 40% at kick-off, 94% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' FC Midtjylland win: 40% at kick-off, 87% now
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' FC Copenhagen · On: Geovanni Vianney Ndjee · Off: Mohamed Elyounoussi
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' FC Copenhagen · On: Marvin Nasnas · Off: Alex Král
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' FC Midtjylland win: 40% at kick-off, 87% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' FC Midtjylland win: 40% at kick-off, 94% now
89′SUBSTITUTION · 90' FC Midtjylland · On: Mileta Rajovic · Off: Friday Etim
90′We published FC Midtjylland at 40%. Our model now makes it 100%. 2–1 · 100–0–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' FC Midtjylland win: 40% at kick-off, 94% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' FC Midtjylland win: 40% at kick-off, 100% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' FC Midtjylland win: 40% at kick-off, 87% now
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 91' FC Midtjylland win: 40% at kick-off, 87% now
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 91' FC Midtjylland win: 40% at kick-off, 100% now
91′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Andreas Maxsø · FC Midtjylland
92′We published FC Midtjylland at 40%. Our model now makes it 100%. 2–1 · 100–0–0
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 92' FC Midtjylland win: 40% at kick-off, 87% now
92′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Andreas Maxsø · FC Midtjylland
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 92' FC Midtjylland win: 40% at kick-off, 100% now
FTFULL TIME FC Midtjylland 2–1 FC Copenhagen
FTFC Midtjylland 2–1 FC Copenhagen · FC Midtjylland win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

FC Midtjylland win40%

Draw25%

FC Copenhagen win35%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:00

VenueMCH Arena

RefereeJacob Karlsen

Line-ups

FC Midtjylland

3-4-1-2

FC Copenhagen

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

FC Midtjylland

FC Copenhagen

22Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Copenhagen	9	+15	24
2	FC Midtjylland	9	+8	19

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

FC Midtjylland

3-4-1-2

25 N. Bakker

4 O. Diao

2 A. Maxsø

22 M. Bech

98 D. Martínez

8 P. Billing

19 P. Bravo

29 K. Wätjen

21 D. Castillo

90 F. Etim

18 S. Iheanacho

Coach · M. Tullberg

Substitutes

15 · B. Dje Bi Dje

10 · Cho Gue-Sung

30 · O. Ejeheri

20 · Hong Hyun-Seok

27 · S. Johannesen

9 · M. Rajović

17 · M. Uhre

39 · Joseph Avwerosuoghene Okuaghare

38 · J. Emefile

FC Copenhagen

4-2-3-1

1 D. Ramaj

2 F. Beijmo

4 A. Sørensen

36 W. Clem

15 M. López

27 T. Delaney

6 A. Markgráf

33 A. Král

10 M. Elyounoussi

16 Robert

14 A. Cornelius

Coach · B. Svensson

Substitutes

34 · M. Nasnas

28 · Hunor Vajk Németh

31 · R. Rúnarsson

20 · J. Suzuki

44 · G. Vianney

24 · B. Meling

12 · T. Maseko

13 · R. Huescas

39 · V. Dadason

Our number · fc midtjylland winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

40% The market38%

Us40%

~~Market~~38%

We make FC Midtjylland a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fc midtjylland win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 37% to 38% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Midtjylland win	40%	38%	+3
Draw	25%	26%	−1
FC Copenhagen win	35%	36%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	62%	58%	+5
Both teams to score	64%	61%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	84%	79%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	40%	36%	+4
FC Midtjylland or draw	65%	64%	+1
FC Midtjylland clean sheet	21%	–	–
FC Copenhagen clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 4.9 5.4 4.8 2.5 1 5.9 11.1 7.9 4.1 2 5.6 8.6 6.6 3.4 3 3.1 4.8 3.7 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Midtjylland down, FC Copenhagen across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,020 Superliga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Superliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.7% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

16 previous meetings, 2.25 goals a meeting; 6 of 16 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Midtjylland at home: 2.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). FC Copenhagen away: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for FC Midtjylland, 1.55 for FC Copenhagen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

16 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 16

~~Both scored~~9 of 16

~~Last meetings~~FCM 2–1 FCC · FCC 1–1 FCM · FCC 1–1 FCM · FCM 4–2 FCC

Form · last six in Superliga

FC MIDTJYLLAND

WDWDWD1–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 4–1 · 1–1

FC COPENHAGEN

LWWWWW0–4 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 5–0 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Copenhagen	9	+15	24
2	FC Midtjylland	9	+8	19
3	FC Nordsjaelland	10	+4	18
4	Viborg	9	+7	17
5	Brondby	9	−3	13
6	AC Horsens	9	−1	11
7	Silkeborg	9	0	10
8	Randers FC	9	−3	10
9	Odense	10	−6	10
10	Lyngby	9	−6	7
11	Aarhus	9	−6	5
12	Sonderjyske	9	−9	5