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Brondby v Lyngby

Brondby

5–2Full time

Lyngby

Superliga · SUN 11 OCT · Brøndby Stadion

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Brondby 5–2 Lyngby BRONDBY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Brondby win~~56%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.293

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.294

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 41 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Brondby win at 56%.
3′Little has changed for our model: Brondby 56% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–24–20
6′Little has changed for our model: Brondby 56% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–24–20
24′23′ and it is 1–0: Jacob Brøchner Ambæk on the scoresheet for Brondby. 1–0 · 80–14–5
31′Brondby ahead on 31′ through Olti Hyseni. 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Brondby win: 56% at kick-off, 52% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Brondby win: 56% at kick-off, 80% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Brondby win: 56% at kick-off, 95% now
32′We said Brondby at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' David Helgi Aronsson · Lyngby
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Brondby win: 56% at kick-off, 52% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Brondby win: 56% at kick-off, 95% now
33′Brondby ahead on 31′ through Olti Hyseni. 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Brondby win: 56% at kick-off, 95% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Brondby win: 56% at kick-off, 52% now
35′We said Brondby at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
36′Jacob Brøchner Ambæk scores for Brondby on 38′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
37′⚽ GOAL · 38' Brondby 2–0 Lyngby · Jacob Brøchner Ambæk
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Brondby 3–0 Lyngby · Jacob Brøchner Ambæk
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Brondby win: 56% at kick-off, 99% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Brondby win: 56% at kick-off, 95% now
39′Jacob Brøchner Ambæk scores for Brondby on 38′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
39′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 99–1–0
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Brondby win: 56% at kick-off, 95% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Brondby win: 56% at kick-off, 99% now
39′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Marcus Younis · Brondby
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Brondby win: 56% at kick-off, 99% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Brondby win: 56% at kick-off, 95% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Brondby win: 56% at kick-off, 95% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Brondby win: 56% at kick-off, 95% now
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Brondby · On: Sho Fukuda · Off: Marcus Younis
45′SECOND HALF Brondby 3–0 Lyngby
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Lyngby · On: Daniel Kristjansson · Off: Isak Thorvaldsson
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Lyngby · On: Mikkel Fischer · Off: Oliver Højer
50′⚽ GOAL · 51' Brondby 3–0 Lyngby · Max Isaac Ejdum
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Brondby 4–0 Lyngby · Max Isaac Ejdum
54′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Mikkel Fischer · Lyngby
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Brondby · On: Oskar Fenger · Off: Jacob Brøchner Ambæk
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Brondby · On: Casper Winther · Off: Max Isaac Ejdum
62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Lyngby · On: Mathias Hebo Rasmussen · Off: Renzo Tytens
65′⚽ GOAL · 66' Brondby 4–0 Lyngby · Jens Thomasen
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Brondby 4–1 Lyngby · Jens Thomasen
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Brondby · On: Daniel Wass · Off: Olti Hyseni
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Brondby 5–1 Lyngby · Oskar Fenger
76′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Brondby · On: Christopher Olivier · Off: Oliver Marc Rose-Villadsen
78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Lyngby · On: Markus Adeniyi Anderson Adedeji · Off: Frederik Gytkjær
78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Lyngby · On: Sanders Ngabo · Off: Jens Thomasen
79′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Sho Fukuda · Brondby
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Brondby 5–2 Lyngby · Oskar Fenger
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Brondby 5–2 Lyngby · Markus Adeniyi Anderson Adedeji
88′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Munashe Garananga · Lyngby
FTFULL TIME Brondby 5–2 Lyngby
FTBrondby 5–2 Lyngby · Brondby win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Brondby win56%

Draw25%

Lyngby win19%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

VenueBrøndby Stadion

RefereeJacob A Sundberg

Line-ups

Brondby

4-2-3-1

Lyngby

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Brondby

Lyngby

21Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Brondby	9	−3	13
10	Lyngby	9	−6	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Brondby

4-2-3-1

1 P. Pentz

2 O. Villadsen

32 F. Alves

4 L. Binks

24 M. Divković

99 B. Slisz

18 M. Ejdum

21 M. Younis

29 M. Frøkjær-Jensen

7 O. Hyseni

38 J. Ambæk

Coach · Thomas Nörgaard

Substitutes

51 · O. Fenger

37 · R. Canut

11 · F. Bundgaard

19 · S. Fukuda

15 · C. Winther

9 · P. Mortensen

3 · Christopher Olivier

50 · W. Sonne Schmid

10 · D. Wass

Lyngby

4-4-2

31 D. Kochen

2 O. Buur

24 M. Garananga

12 David Helgi Aronsson

25 R. Tytens

19 G. Fraulo

14 L. Sandgrav

18 J. Thomasen

5 Oliver Højer

26 F. Gytkjær

10 Í. Þorvaldsson

Coach · Mikkel Jespersen

Substitutes

16 · Z. Sertdemir

4 · C. Allen

35 · M. Anderson

8 · M. Hebo

6 · D. Kristjánsson

22 · S. Ngabo

1 · J. Ægidius

17 · W. Steindorsson

30 · M. Fischer

Our number · brondby winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

56% The market56%

Us56%

~~Market~~56%

We make Brondby a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.8–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · brondby win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 54% to 56% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Brondby win	56%	56%	0
Draw	25%	23%	+1
Lyngby win	19%	21%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	51%	60%	−9
Both teams to score	51%	59%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	76%	81%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	29%	39%	−10
Brondby or draw	81%	79%	+2
Brondby clean sheet	39%	–	–
Lyngby clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 7.6 5.5 3.0 1 10.9 11.8 5.2 2 10.4 9.6 4.5 3 6.2 5.7 2.7 4 2.8 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Brondby down, Lyngby across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,020 Superliga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Superliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.7% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 3.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Brondby at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Lyngby away: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.77 goals for Brondby, 0.94 for Lyngby. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 14:32. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~BRO 1–1 LYN · LYN 0–2 BRO · LYN 3–3 BRO · BRO 3–0 LYN

Form · last six in Superliga

BRONDBY

WWLLLL3–2 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 1–4 · 0–1

LYNGBY

DLDWDL1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Copenhagen	9	+15	24
2	FC Midtjylland	9	+8	19
3	FC Nordsjaelland	10	+4	18
4	Viborg	9	+7	17
5	Brondby	9	−3	13
6	AC Horsens	9	−1	11
7	Silkeborg	9	0	10
8	Randers FC	9	−3	10
9	Odense	10	−6	10
10	Lyngby	9	−6	7
11	Aarhus	9	−6	5
12	Sonderjyske	9	−9	5